Fantasy Football Week 4 Wide Receiver Start Decision: Who Should Jauan Jennings be Starting Over?
Taking a look at several fantasy wide receiver starting options for week 4.
Week 4 of the NFL regular season is underway, and a big slate of Sunday games await.
As we all prepare our starting lineups, there’s several players who are constantly coming up in start/sit decisions. One of those players is San Francisco’s Jauan Jennings, so I wanted to dedicate an entire story to him and some receivers he’s going up against in the FantasySP start/sit tool.
He’s in trending decisions right now with Miami’s Tyreek Hill, Las Vegas’ Davante Adams, New Orleans’ Rashid Shaheed, Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans, New York’s Garrett Wilson and Chicago’s D.J. Moore.
Let’s dive right in.
Looking for start/sit help? Be sure to check out the FantasySP Who Should I Start tool.
Jennings Fantasy Outlooks
Jennings was a pretty big afterthought coming into the season, but injuries, specifically the ones to Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle, have led to an increased role for Jennings.
The wideout did go for 64 yards on five catches and targets in week 1 when Samuel and Kittle were playing, but Brandon Aiyuk was also playing after not getting in much practice, so most fantasy owners ignored the week 1 performance.
Week 2 saw Jennings go for just 37 yards on two catches and four targets. San Fran lost Kittle and Samuel in that game, and without them in week 3, Jennings erupted for 175 yards and three touchdowns on 11 receptions and 12 targets.
That led to Jennings being a massive waiver wire target this week. He was at just 3.5% owned after week 2, before getting up to 50% before week 3 kicked off. He’s now at 94% rostered.
Kittle expects to play this week in the team’s matchup against New England. Samuel practiced in a limited fashion on Thursday, leaving the door open for him to also maybe play this weekend. Having both those players out there would definitely knock Jennings’ fantasy value down a bunch.
A matchup with the Patriots’ defense is favorable for the wideouts who do suit up. New England has allowed an average of 39 fantasy points to opposing wideouts through three weeks.
Other Wideouts Fantasy Outlooks
Hill has 13 receptions for 194 yards and a touchdown through three weeks. In his first game without Tua Tagovailoa, Hill had just three receptions for 40 yards across five targets.
He takes on Tennessee in week 4. It’s one of the tougher matchups for wideouts, as the Titans’ defense allows just 21 points per game.
Adams has 18 grabs for 209 yards and a touchdown this season. He’s coming off a down week 3 as well (four catches, nine targets, 40 yards) and is now dealing with a hamstring injury.
Adams will battle the Browns this week if he’s able to play. That's an average fantasy matchup for the wideout, as Cleveland allows 32 points per game so far.
UPDATE: Adams was ruled out with his hamstring injury.
?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5EtweetShaheed has seven grabs, 169 yards and two touchdowns this season. He was held without a catch on five targets a week ago.
Shaheed will look to bounce back against the Falcons in week 4. Atlanta is another pretty average matchup, allowing 31 fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts.
Evans has just 10 catches for 120 yards, but two scores this season. He was limited to 17 yards on two receptions and three targets last week and is dealing with a knee injury.
He’s going up against the Eagles in week 4, which is an above-average matchup on paper. Philly allows 40 fantasy points per week to wideouts.
Wilson has 15 receptions for 150 yards and a touchdown through three games. He had 33 yards and his touchdown on five catches and nine targets last Thursday.
A week 4 clash against the Broncos is actually a very tough matchup on paper. Denver allows just 19 fantasy points per week, tied with Seattle for the best mark so far.
Moore is up to 167 yards, but no touchdowns, on 19 catches so far. He went for 78 yards on eight catches and 10 targets in week 3, which was his best game yet.
Moore will face off against a weak Rams’ defense in week 4. LA’s defense has allowed 42 fantasy points per week to opposing wideouts so far.
Projections, Trending Decisions and Start Recommendations
Wilson is projected for the most PPR fantasy points (15) among the receivers in question.
Moore is at 14 points, while Evans and Hill are at 13 points. Jennings is projected for 12 points. Shaheed sits at 10 projected points.
At first when I saw some of the receivers going up against Jennings on the start/sit tool, I scrolled past. After seeing Jennings’ name a bunch, I decided to click on the trending decisions and was surprised to see how many people were rolling with Jennings.
Hill is the preferred starter, but at just 31-14%. Both are starting in 53% of leagues.
Jennings is the overwhelming favorite over Shaheed, 51-8%. Both are starting in 18% of leagues.
Wilson is preferred, but just 32-13% Both wideouts are starting in 47% of leagues.
Evans and Moore are more trusted among these wideouts. Evans is preferred over Jennings 35-9%, with both starting in 48% of leagues. Moore is preferred over Jennings 36-9%, with both starting in 50% of leagues.
While Jennings is only preferred in one of the decisions, these are far closer than most would think when it comes to some of the big-name receivers, and that’s why I decided to do a story.
On a normal week when teams are at full health, you would never consider Jennings over any of these guys, and that situation might become mostly true in San Fran. If Kittle indeed plays, Jennings’ role is definitely going to decrease. He’d be more affected if Samuel was the one playing of course, but even if just one of Kittle/Samuel plays, I’m taking all these other receivers, minus Shaheed, over Jennings. If both guys play, Jennings should only be a starting option in deeper leagues.
Now, if Kittle and Samuel are out again, then there’s some conversations to be had. I’d still prefer Hill, Evans, Wilson and Moore over Jennings though, while taking Jennings over Shaheed still, if that situation plays out.
One good week from Jennings shouldn’t be enough to outright bench a player of the caliber of Hill, Evans, Wilson and Moore, regardless of how those guys have looked this season or did last week. The chances that Jennings replicates his showing from week 3 are slim - he could still have an above-average fantasy showing, but his potential is not higher than any of Hill, Evans, Wilson and Moore.
Again, I’m pretty shocked that Hill, Evans, Wilson and Moore are even in start/sit decisions with Jennings. Yes, Jennings outplayed them all last week, but to expect it to happen again isn’t wise. If you are seriously considering playing Jennings over any of those four, you might as well trade them, because you simply aren’t appreciating what they bring as fantasy players.
The start numbers are telling you that fantasy owners are judging Jennings against the wrong guys (top-end talents), while he should instead be considered against some second-tier wideouts and be more of a flex option.
Just for fun, and because I rank all the starting options in a typical start decision story, I’m going to do the same with these wideouts.
Here’s my PPR rankings/projections if Kittle and Samuel are both out, or if just one of them plays: Moore, Wilson, Evans, Hill, Jennings, Shaheed. If Kittle and Samuel both play, then you can swap Shaheed and Jennings.
Don’t let last week’s big performance fool you into trusting Jennings over a top-tier fantasy wideout. Do your best to get Jennings into deeper lineups, but be very cautious playing him over your options in a standard league - he's a flex option at best.
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