Best Bust-Proof Players Outside of the 1st Round in Fantasy Football Drafts
We are compiling a list of the two most bust-proof players at every position who aren't being drafted in the first round of 12-team leagues according to their current ADP. These guys are as solid and consistent as they come. There is no concern about their supporting cast slowing them down or any inherent injury concerns. If you draft these guys you can plug them in every week and be confident that you know exactly what you're getting.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
This was an easy choice to start out with, but we promise it will get tougher. Mahomes is the best quarterback in fantasy football and the best quarterback in the world. When it's all said and done there is a real chance that he's the best to ever do it. It doesn't hurt that he has an all-time great offensive mind Andy Reid imagining up the offense and a generational talent in Travis Kelce catching touchdown passes. His floor is 4,500 yards and 30 TDs. While he does lack the high-upside rushing ability of a guy like Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts, he also isn't an injury risk and there has never been a question about his ability from the pocket.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Burrow is another safe option and in my opinion the second-best real-life NFL QB. Even more so, he lacks that rushing upside which is why he is being drafted as the QB4 behind Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. However, this also limits his injury potential and he is a far superior pocket passer. We've also seen him do this consistently on a high-level going back to LSU. You can also make a case that he has the best WR corps in the NFL with JaMarr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. They are going to put up numbers no matter who is under center so they make his life easy. He's a lock for over 4,200 yards and 30 TDs and has the ability to be a 5,000 and 40 guy.
Running Backs
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Somehow one of the safest and most consistent running backs in the league got even safer this season with Kareem Hunt leaving town. Chubb now has the backfield all to himself which should give him a safe baseline of targets to both increase his floor and his ceiling. The Browns also boast one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and could have their best quarterback in team history this year. The volume, production, and ability are all apparent and the system is built for him to succeed. The fewest opportunities he had in a game last season was 15 and now both Hunt and D'Ernest Johnson are no longer behind him on the depth chart.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
We know what you're thinking. How can a Patriots' running back be on this list? However, it's a different time in New England now and this team has no choice but to feature Stevenson. He's the only real difference-maker on their offense. Everyone else is just a guy or worse. With Damien Harris now in Buffalo there is no one to cut into his touches or steal TDs from him. With a guaranteed high volume of both carries and targets, and a 230-pound frame we don't see how he doesn't finish as an RB1 this season. Like Chubb last year, it would be a surprise if there is a game in 2023 in which Rhamondre doesn't get 15 opportunities.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
There is no reason to fear Jaylen Warren, at least not when it comes to Harris's floor. How long have we been watching the Steelers' now? There is always a guy who is going to cut into the RB1s' workload and it never happens to a significant extent. This is what Mike Tomlin is going to do because it's what he always does. He's going to run out a bell-cow back on the vast majority of the snaps and he's going to give them a ton of touches both on the ground and through the air. They show you what they want to do year after year. Don't overthink it.
Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
Diggs isn't only the safest wideout, but the safest skill position player in all of fantasy football. He's going to go out there every single week, run great routes and create separation. Then Josh Allen is going to throw him the ball over and over. This is an elite wideout paired with a high-end quarterback. When you draft Diggs you know he's going to see more than 150 targets and he'll turn that into at least 1,200 yards and close to double-digit TDs. He's the ultimate set-it-and-forget-it guy.
Ceedee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Lamb feels like a younger version of Diggs at this point. Not quite as accomplished, but perhaps with a higher ceiling because we haven't seen the best of him yet. Like Diggs, you know his quarterback is going to throw him the ball a ton and while Dak Prescott may not be special he's more than serviceable. When you draft Lamb, you're getting 120-150 targets, well over 1,000 yards, and five-ten TDs. That's his floor and his ceiling could be well above our expectations.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra somewhat quietly finished as the WR8 in 2022. He's a special player who is constantly peppered with targets. Still just 23 years of age, he is ascending and could be far from his peak. In his first two seasons, he caught 196 passes for over 2,000 yards. Last year, he saw 146 targets. He is as safe as they come in PPR leagues and a lock to catch close to triple-digit passes and clear the 1,000-yard mark. If he can get his TDs up just a little bit the sky could be the limit for this young star. He caught six TDs last season, hitting double-digits could help him push closer to being considered one of the elite guys.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
Outside of Kelce, no one is close to being as safe as Andrews. The reason being that he is the top option in the passing attack and it hasn't been all that close. It's not often a tight end is the focal point of an offense, nevertheless, when it does happen it gives fantasy owners a massive advantage when they have them in their lineup. A TE who is all but guaranteed to see 100 targets is a rare commodity in fantasy football. He could fall well short of expectations and still not be a bust.
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