Bears Running Back Fantasy Outlook: Khalil Herbert vs. D'Onta Foreman vs. Roschon Johnson

Of all the backfields in the NFL, the Bears' is one of the most difficult for fantasy managers to predict. It's unclear how the workload will be divided between the returning Khalil Herbert, free agent signing D'Onta Foreman and fourth-round pick Roschon Johnson. But this uncertainty on what projects to be one of the league's run-heaviest teams also means that there is value to be had, it's just a matter of picking the right back. Let's take a look at what can be expected from the Bears' backfield.

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Khalil Herbert Fantasy Outlook

Herbet, a 2021 sixth-round pick out of Virginia Tech, has done nothing but impress since entering the league. In 2022, he ranked among the top ten backs in a host of efficiency metrics, including yards per attempt (tied for second), yards after contact per attempt (second), missed tackles forced per attempt (ninth), rushing yards over expected per attempt (first), and percentage of carries going for more yards than expected (fourth). 

While he spent most of his first two years serving in an auxiliary role behind David Montgomery, he produced when given the opportunity: In his six career games with at least 50% of offensive snaps played, Herbert has averaged 15.0 fantasy points. 

On the other hand, Herbert's ceiling is capped, especially in PPR formats, by his likely lack of receiving usage. He has just 23 career receptions and has had just two career games with over three targets. There is a chance this changes if he is the full-time lead back, but he's not likely to ever post elite receiving numbers, especially with a mobile QB in Justin Fields at the helm.

D'Onta Foreman Fantasy Outlook

A third-round draft pick in 2017, Foreman tore his Achilles halfway through his rookie season, and didn't re-emerge as a relevant fantasy player until 2021 with the Titans, where he performed admirably in place of an injured Derrick Henry. He spent the 2022 season in Carolina, where he again had some big games following the departure of Christian McCaffrey to San Francisco. 

Like Herbert, Foreman has been very effective on the ground over the last two years. Remember how Herbert was fourth in the league in the percentage of his carries that went for more yards than expected in 2022? Well, Foreman was first, outperforming his expected production on a whopping 47.5% of his carries. 

Also like Herbert, Foreman isn't much of a receiver out of the backfield, with an identical total of 23 career receptions in his 43 NFL games (13 starts). However, he may be able to make up for his lack of receiving volume with touchdowns. At 6'0" and 233 pounds and with his aforementioned godly success rate, Foreman is potentially the favorite to handle short-yardage and goal-line work for the Bears.

For all these positives in Foreman's profile, there is some reason for concern. He is reportedly a surprise cut candidate, which makes some sense when you consider that his skill set is mostly redundant to Herbert's, and the Bears, with Herbert, Johnson, and special-teamer Travis Homer all likely guaranteed roster spots, may not want to keep a fourth running back.

Roschon Johnson Fantasy Outlook

Johnson is a rare kind of rookie running back, one who wasn't the top back on their college team. In this case, its understandable, as Johnson served as the RB2 to Bijan Robinson, one of the best RB prospects of the last decade. But the lack of workhorse college volume in his four-year Texas career makes it more difficult to project Johnson as an NFL player.

On the plus side, Johnson posted some very impressive metrics on the work he did see in college. His 198 PFF elusiveness rating and 4.28 yards after contact per attempt were both more than any other power-five back in the 2023 class, including his superstar teammate. Johnson also profiles as more of a receiver than either Herbert or Foreman, catching 14 passes on 142 senior-year snaps at Texas and posting a respectable 1.16 yards per route run.

On the other hand, Johnson is still a fourth-round rookie. Even if Foreman is cut, I find it hard to believe that he will beat out a very efficient back in Herbet for the lead role, at least not anytime soon.

So Who's The Pick?

Currently, according to our ADP Tool, all three Bears running backs are being selected in the top 150 picks, with Herbert being drafted the highest at RB34, Foreman at RB44, and Johnson at RB52.

Given those prices and recent indications that the lead-back job is all but his, Herbert is the obvious smash pick out of this group. His ADP is currently trending upward, but he is still being drafted too low. Managers are drafting with concern that Foreman and/or Johnson will significantly cut into his workload, but that is looking less and less likely with every day. Take the discount on a potential high-end RB2. 

Foreman, on the other hand, is not currently worth drafting, even at his relatively cheap price. Given the real chance he gets cut prior to Week 1 and his lack of an elite ceiling thanks to Herbert's presence and his non-existent receiving history, there are better bets at his ADP. He may become a sneaky last-round pick if he is cut and lands in a relatively empty backfield, but until then, cross him off your draft board.

Finally, I don't hate taking a few shares of Johnson at his 13th-round ADP, although it is important to keep expectations realistic. Even if Foreman is cut, Johnson is likely to be a handcuff, only fantasy relevant if Herbert gets hurt. There is a chance he carves out flex value with a receiving-heavy role as the season goes on, but he's very unlikely to completely take Herbert's job without an injury. 

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