Eagles Running Back Fantasy Football Outlook: D'Andre Swift vs. Rashaad Penny vs. Kenneth Gainwell

According to the most up-to-date fantasy football ADP from our ADP tool, there is only one team with three running backs being drafted inside the top 50 at the position: the Philadelphia Eagles. Fantasy managers are spending draft capital on each of D'Andre Swift (RB21), Rashaad Penny (RB39), and Kenneth Gainwell (RB49).

The Eagles' offense is one of the best in the league, but even it can't support three fantasy-relevant backs at once. So who is the pick, and who should be avoided at cost? Let's get into it.

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D'Andre Swift Fantasy Football Outlook

Swift is no stranger to the top of fantasy football draft boards. Taken with the 35th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft by Detroit, Swift has been a favorite of fantasy managers since he first stepped on an NFL field, although his production hasn't exactly matched the hype. 

Fantasy managers saw in Swift the recipe for an elite fantasy option: a dual-threat back with efficiency both through the air and on the ground. His career yards per route run of 1.53 and 0.26 yards over expected per carry both rank among the best of the best at the RB position since he entered the league.  

Unfortunately, a combination of injuries and inconsistent usage meant that Swift never quite reached the status that fantasy managers were hoping for with the Lions. Whether that inconsistent usage was incompetence on the part of Detroit's coaching staff or a logical result of Swift's boom-or-bust running style and inability to handle workhorse volume remains up for debate; while many of his advanced metrics are elite, Swift's career 44.9% rush success rate is well below-average, and his long injury history speaks for itself.

Now, Swift gets a fresh start, landing in Philadelphia thanks to a draft day trade that saw him moved for a fourth-round pick in 2025 and a swap of seventh-round picks. He still maintains the upside that fantasy managers have chased his whole career, and RB21 is a much cheaper price to pay than his top-10 ADP in 2022. On the other hand, Swift has now played three seasons and has yet to play more than 14 games in a season or best his rookie-year RB18 Half-PPR finish. The switch from check-down king Jared Goff to dual-threat Jalen Hurts also decreases the chance that Swift will be able to command an elite target share, which is a huge part of what made him such an intriguing fantasy option. 

Rashaad Penny Fantasy Football Outlook

In many ways, the story of Penny's NFL career is much like Swift's. Penny was also highly drafted, taken in the first round of the 2018 draft by the Seahawks. Unfortunately, also like Swift, Penny struggled greatly with injuries during his five years in Seattle, starting more than 10 games just once, in his rookie year. 

However, again mirroring Swift, Penny was one of the league's most efficient runners when on the field, especially over the last two years. Since 2021, Penny has led all rushers with at least 150 carries in yards per carry over expected by an absolutely absurd margin, a full half-yard ahead of second place (1.23 to 0.73). In 2022, he also led running backs with at least 50 attempts in breakaway rate, yards after contact per attempt, and good old-fashioned yards per carry. 

Arguably the league's most efficient back behind arguably its best offensive line, the case for Penny is obvious. He is also the biggest of the Eagles' three main backs, so may be in line for whatever goal-line work Jalen Hurts doesn't claim for himself. On the other hand, he brings essentially no PPR upside, with just 27 receptions in 42 career games, and there have even been rumors that he is a candidate to be cut from the Eagles' final 53-man roster. 

Kenneth Gainwell Fantasy Football Outlook

Given the impressive draft capital and statistical profiles of the two backs listed above him, why is 2021 fifth-rounder Kenneth Gainwell still picking up steam in fantasy circles? Well, some reports out of the Eagles' camp are that he has been the primary first-team back, with Swift seeing third-down work and Penny mixing in only occasionally. This reporting seemed further confirmed when he sat out the Eagles' first preseason game along with the majority of their presumed starters, while Penny and Swift both saw the field.

If he is indeed the top back in Philadelphia, Gainwell profiles well as a fantasy option, with the receiving chops that managers love. However, don't rush to proclaim Gainwell the steal of 2023 fantasy football drafts just yet. While the camp hype is promising, the preseason usage is likely more a reflection of his familiarity with the offense as a returning player than a guaranteed place in the pecking order. 

In addition, Gainwell, listed at just 200 pounds, would be abnormally small for a workhorse NFL RB. He has also seen limited work so far in the NFL, including just 3.12 carries per game in 2022. It is hard to confidently predict that he will make a leap from being sparingly used behind Miles Sanders to being the Eagles' feature back ahead of both Swift and Penny.

Who Should You Draft?

Given recent reports that he may be the lead early-down back and the fact that his draft price is easily the cheapest of the three, Gainwell is my favorite pick out of this group. Yes, there is a chance that the camp hype is just that, and he sees a limited role, but for a 12th-round pick, he costs very little to find out. At the very least, Gainwell would make for a valuable handcuff in an elite offense behind two backs who have combined for zero full seasons in their eight years in the league. 

On the other hand, I think drafting Penny at his current ADP is a losing bet. I hate to say it, as I have taken my fair share of Penny in Best Ball drafts this offseason, but it's hard to ignore the news coming out of Philadelphia. No matter how impressive your rushing numbers are, it's not a good thing to be mentioned more as a cut candidate than as someone running with the first-team offense. Combine that with a lack of receiving ability capping his ceiling, and I will be avoiding Penny in drafts until further notice. 

Swift is the most difficult decision for me. His fifth-round ADP is a steep price to pay for a back without a guaranteed role, but his sky-high upside is still very tempting. Unfortunately, between Gainwell's reported ascendence, the lingering (for now) presence of Penny, an uncertain target share on a loaded offense, and his own injury and efficiency concerns, Swift comes with one too many red flags. There is a chance it all comes together and he has a league-winning, top-five RB season, but I'll let him do it on someone else's roster. 

Overall, given the amount of question marks surrounding every member of this backfield, I'm happy to let others invest high draft capital in Penny and Swift, waiting to take Gainwell as a later-round dart.