Start Tua Tagovailoa or Kirk Cousins: Week 1 Quarterback Faceoff
The NFL season has officially begun! Fantasy owners made their initial roster decisions for Thursday’s game, and are now starting to think about what moves to make for this Sunday’s games.
While perusing the FantasySP “Who Should I Start? fantasy tool this morning, I came across a quarterback matchup that caught my interest. The matchup has owners trying to decide between Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins.
Both QBs are projected for similar point totals in week 1, so if you own both, who do you start. Let’s discuss the case for each.
Tough start decision? We have you covered. Find out in depth stats, red zone opportunities, projections, breaking news, and crowdsourcing real fantasy owners faced with the same start/sit decision. Check out our Who Should I Start tool.
Starting Tua Tagovailoa over Kirk Cousins
Tagovailoa and the Dolphins open their season with one of the more intriguing matchups of opening week, hitting the road to battle the Los Angeles Chargers in one of the Sunday afternoon games. Miami is coming off a 9-8 regular season and second place finish in the AFC East. The Dolphins were bounced from the playoffs by the division champ Buffalo Bills.
Tagovailoa’s health was one of the biggest storylines that followed Miami a season ago. He ended up starting 13 games in 2022, with the team winning eight of those. He passed for 3,548 yards and 25 touchdowns while throwing just eight interceptions. Tagovailoa completed just under 65% of his passes and was sacked 21 times.
Tagovailoa wasn’t a big threat in the running game, with just 23 attempts for 70 yards and no scores. The organization and fantasy owners would probably be just fine with those kinds of totals again in 2023.
The fourth-year quarterback opens the year going against a Chargers’ defense that was one of the better ones in the league in passing yards against, allowing just 3,693 yards to finish inside the top 10. Los Angeles did allow 24 passing scores, which was in the middle of the league.
A big reason the Chargers’ passing yards against number was so good was because the unit struggled mightily against the run, allowing the second-most yards (2,164) in the league.
Another thing that works against Tagovailoa is that several key members on offense are banged up. Offensive linemen Terron Armstead, Liam Eichenberg and Connor Williams are all listed on the injury report, with at least Armstead likely to miss the game. Wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, the team’s second-leading receiver in 2022, is dealing with an oblique issue, but is expected to suit up after practicing in full on Thursday.
Speaking of Waddle and skill position players, Tagovailoa will be working with many of the same players he did a season ago. Tyreek Hill and Waddle lead the receiver group, with newcomer Braxton Berrios now in the mix and expected to help out. Miami lost tight end Mike Gesecki to the New England Patriots, so one of Tagovailoa’s safety valves is now gone.
The Dolphins and Chargers squared off late in the 2022 season, with the Chargers prevailing 23-17. Tagovailoa struggled in the contest, completed just 10 of his 28 attempts for 145 yards and one touchdown. He was sacked twice and led the offense to just 219 total yards on the day.
Starting Kirk Cousins over Tua Tagovailoa
Cousins and the Vikings will try to erase the sting of their Wild Card Round playoff loss by starting the year off with a home win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the early set of games Sunday. Minnesota went 13-4 during the regular season before falling to the New York Giants in the postseason.
Cousins threw for 4,547 yards in 2022, tossing 29 touchdowns to 14 interceptions. He completed nearly 66% of his passes and was sacked 46 times, the most in his NFL career.
Cousins and the Minnesota offense will face off against a Tampa Bay defense that ranked 10th in the league in passing yards allowed (3,767) a season ago. The Bucs did surrender 29 passing touchdowns, which was tied for second-most. They were solid against the run, finishing in the top half of the league.
Minnesota has a pretty clean injury report, so Cousins should have all his offensive weapons at his disposal. Justin Jefferson will obviously be the focal point in the passing game, with tight end T.J. Hockenson also factoring in a lot. He’ll try and work K.J. Osborn and rookie Jordan Addison in. Minnesota will be playing its first game in several seasons without running back Dalvin Cook, and it’s possible the team might run a touch less than in past years with Alexander Mattison now the lead back.
Final Start Decision Between Tagovailoa or Cousins
According to our Start/Sit tool, fantasy owners that own both quarterbacks are starting Tagovailoa 43% of the time, while Cousins is started 32% of the time.
Our week 1 projections have Tagovailoa at 17.2 points and Cousins at 17.75 points.
Cousins is the Recommended Start
I am against the decision most fantasy owners are making and would prefer Cousins over Tagovailoa in week 1 if both were on my roster.
The opposing defenses each quarterback is facing are pretty similar when it came to defending the pass a season ago. The big difference is that Los Angeles really struggled to stop the run, while Tampa Bay was pretty solid in doing so. Neither the Vikings or Dolphins have true workhorse backs at this point, but it’s far more likely that the Dolphins find success running than the Vikings do.
The other thing that really turns me away from Tagovailoa is his performance against the Chargers last year. Cousins and the Vikings didn’t face the Buccaneers, but the only games the QB really struggled mightily in were ones in which the team got blown out in, and that seems unlikely against the Bucs without Tom Brady running things.
I’ll stick with our projections and start Cousins over Tagovailoa this week.
