JACKSONVILLE, FL - JANUARY 14: Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws a pass during the game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Jacksonville Jaguars on January 14, 2023 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fl. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire)
Fantasy Football managers have a distinct advantage when it comes to prop betting as we are so in tune with in-game analysis that we can take advantage of when a sportsbook makes a bad line. Week 1 is especially a great time to take some “prop shots” as right now books are looking closer at the stats from last season than they are predicting what’s going to happen this season.
Each week I will give you my favorite one or two prop bets based on position. Before you place your bet it is incredibly important to Odds shop. What that means is that you are looking for the best odds in your favor that a sportsbook has. Why take a -120 bet when you can take a -115 elsewhere?
Without further ado, here are my Visionary props for the week:
Best Week 1 Player Prop Bets
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers | OVER 1.5 passing TDs (projection on FantasySP is 2)
This is the highest-scoring game on the slate according to Las Vegas and Herbert looks primed to air it out under new OC Kellen Moore.
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens | OVER 54.5 rushing yards (projection on FantasySP is 72.2)
The Texans had a horrible run defense in 2022 which they have tried to address in the offseason. However, mobile QBs leave huge running lanes and 54.5 yards might be something Dobbins has by the end of the third quarter.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers | OVER 48.5 rushing yards (projection on FantasySP is 62.4)
I am expecting a low-scoring game which should lead to about 15 rushing attempts for Harris. If he can average 4.0 YPC he should be able to beat this prop easily.
D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears | OVER 47.5 receiving yards (projection on FantasySP is 59.9)
Moore is the clear WR1 for Chicago. I doubt that Jaire Alexander will shadow him throughout which should leave Moore open for 2-3 big gainers which could beat the prop early.
Elijah Moore, Cleveland Browns | OVER 30.5 receiving yards (projection on FantasySP is 42.4)
Watson needed a slot receiver last year terribly when he was facing tough pass rushes. Enter Moore who comes over from the Jets determined to show that last year’s fiasco was not his fault. Moore should be good for at least five receptions hitting the over.
