Fantasy Football Trade Value: Should You Trade DeAndre Hopkins, Drake London?

Overreactions start as early as kickoff of Week 1, and we have decided that a star is washed up or a team is doomed by halftime of the first games. I had a friend text me that none of his fantasy players were doing anything yet; the first quarter of the first wave of games was about halfway through at that point.

The point is, we fantasy managers are crazy, and we do crazy things, and nothing is crazier than dropping or trading a player you loved after one week because of one performance. Tough matchups cause slow starts, and sometimes players need a few weeks to get fully comfortable in a new offense; even when teams keep consistency, it’s not like Madden where the same exact plays are run year after year. Humans need time to adapt to changes in routine.

Several names have popped up as likely to be added (Tyler Allgeier) or dropped (Kadarius Toney), but others have owners thinking they can either sell high or buy low on players based on early results. I want to focus on two receivers, one at the beginning of his career and one closer to the end of a great career. These players have been among the most traded in the aftermath of Week 1, and I want to investigate if you should buy or sell.

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Drake London, Atlanta Falcons

London was the eighth overall pick in the 2022 Draft and is part of a triumvirate of highly drafted skill players in Atlanta: Tight end Kyle Pitts was selected fourth overall in 2021, and rooking running back Bijan Robinson was taken eighth overall this year. The Atlanta offense would seem primed to explode.

Two things are holding that back: first, quarterback Desmond Ridder was a third-round pick last year and started the last four games with mixed results (only two touchdowns, but no interceptions, and he did improve his rating each game. Atlanta won two of those games, but they were out of real contention, even if they had a chance at the playoffs in a terrible division. The results matter this season, and Atlanta started with a win in Week 1. The second is the Falcons' offensive scheme, which led to London seeing just one target in that Week 1 victory.

Week 1 Gameplan: Run

Ridder and the offense had less to do with the victory than a defense that took advantage of a rookie quarterback, and it shows in the passing stats: Ridder had the highest completion percentage of Week 1 (83.3%), but his 18 passes were the lowest in the league among QBs who played a full game. He had a touchdown and no interceptions, but his 115 yards were second-least among qualifying passers.

Ridder’s 111.8 Quarterback Rating was second-best in Week 1, so you’d figure his pass-catchers would be happy, right? Well, not so much for the receiving duo in that three-headed monster of skill players. Tight end Kyle Pitts had two catches for 44 yards, and London was shut out. Zero catches. Zero yards.

I searched Sunday to see if London had suffered an injury because the stat line was shocking. I Googled it again right now just to double-check, but London was not hurt. He just failed to catch a pass in Atlanta’s opening game. There are several factors for this, but Atlanta’s success in this game must be concerning for London and his fantasy owners.

Carolina has a good defense led by star pass-rusher Brian Burns, and former top-10 pick cornerback Jaycee Horn surely didn’t make London’s life easy at any point in the game. A lack of receiving options in Atlanta allows defenses to key on the few stars they do have in the passing game to shut them down. London had only one target and Pitts only three, while second receiver Mack Hollins had four.

Fewer Targets Moving Forward

Most concerning is that London's lack of opportunity is not likely to change all season. Atlanta had the second-most rushing attempts per game in 2022, just 0.3 less than Philadelphia’s league-leading 33.2. Coinciding with that high number, the Falcons attempted the second-least passes per game, with just 24.4; only the Bears were lower, with an absurd 22.2. From 2015-2021 (and possibly longer), no team attempted fewer passes per game than Atlanta’s 24.4.

London will have a few big games as a talented receiver. He had 72 receptions for 866 yards and four scores last season (while losing three fumbles, which is something to monitor) and was drafted in the top 10 for a reason. With such a low passing output, though, London will struggle for consistency in Atlanta’s offense.

Verdict: Trade Him Away

With two very good backs on the team, including a rookie top-10 pick, the Falcons' commitment to the run seems likely to stick for a while. Many passes will be heading toward the backs as well, as they combined for nine receptions on nine targets in Week 1. London is going to disappoint more than he surprises, and he is a prime candidate to trade now while another owner thinks they can buy low. I also feel the same about Pitts, for the record.

DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans

I feel I need to make less of a case in favor of Hopkins than I just did against London, so let’s get right to it: Hopkins was one of the best receivers in football as recently as two seasons ago, and, while some hiccups have thrown off his last few years, he is still a top talent in the league. I am looking to trade for Hopkins early in the season before his owners see the old D-Hop.

Week 1 Gameplan: Look for DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins’ 13 targets were tied for third-most in Week 1 with Stefon Diggs, behind the 15 of both Tyreek Hill and Puka Nacua (run and pick him up if he’s free!!). Hopkins received 38.2% of his quarterback’s targets, second among that group behind Nacua (39.5%). Those other three players seem likely to get the ball a lot, at least until Cooper Kupp returns, and I see Hopkins fitting right in.

Hopkins did not have an efficient day in Week 1, catching just seven of his 13 targets for 65 yards. Efficiency doesn’t matter in fantasy, though, and those 65 yards represent almost a third of quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s production. (His seven catches were 43.8% of Tannehill’s 16 completions.) The Saints are a tough team to throw against, and Hopkins was battling Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore most of the game, so better days are likely to come for Hopkins and the Titans' passing game.

Who Else?

With all due respect to the rest of Tennessee, Hopkins is the only consistent option in their pass game. Treylon Burks was a first-round pick last year, but he battled injuries and topped 60 yards just three times in 11 games his rookie season. Burks may have a bright future, but he’s likely to have a bumpy road right now, including his two catches for 18 yards in Week 1.

No other receiver needs mentioning for fantasy purposes, and I’m not a fan of tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo despite the breakout watch. He failed to catch either of his targets in Week 1, and he hit 50 yards just twice in 15 games last season. Hopkins is THE guy, and that will continue.

A Few Notes on Hopkins

• He did miss 15 games over the last two seasons due to injury and a suspension, but he had missed only two games in the previous eight years of his career. Hopkins is 31, but I’m willing to bet on him playing at least 15 games.
• His production when he did play the last two seasons was still at a star level. In 19 games over 2021-22, Hopkins had 106 receptions for 1,289 yards and 11 touchdowns; that works out to 94.8 catches, 1,153.3 yards and 9.8 touchdowns over 17 games, Pro Bowl production.

The Verdict: Trade For Him

Where lack of volume is the issue for London, the potential for volume is the best argument for Hopkins. He is going to see the ball, and he is a player who will be a starter most weeks, even in a dwindling offense that focuses on the run. Grab Hopkins for cheap before he has one of those 100-yard, two-touchdown days he’s so good at.