Start Geno Smith or Justin Fields | Fantasy Football Week 3 Quarterback Who Should I Start Decision
Here we are in Week 3 of the NFL season and fantasy owners are likely already starting to question if Justin Fields is a viable starter on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs. The matchup is not great and fantasy owners have been asking us if Geno Smith should start over Fields.
Daniel wrote about Justin Fields and his play a few days ago. Morgan broke down why you should still hold onto Fields despite his struggles.
Tough start decision? We have you covered. Find out in depth stats, red zone opportunities, projections, breaking news, and crowdsourcing real fantasy owners faced with the same start/sit decision. Check out our Who Should I Start tool.
Case to Start Geno Smith Over Justin Fields
To date Geno Smith has had one very bad game and one very good game. Last week he threw for 328 yards and two scores on the road against the Detroit Lions. The Lions give up the 5th most fantasy points to quarterbacks so far in this young season. Meanwhile the Rams are the 8th toughest defense this season against opposing quarterbacks, which would explain his bad game in Week 1.
So is it as simple as simply start Geno Smith only as a streaming option against bad defenses?
This Week Geno Smith plays against the Carolina Panthers who have an even tougher defense against opposing quarterbacks. They are ranked 3rd toughest.
The best thing working in Geno’s favor is that he has great options to throw to, namely DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and a rookie with high hopes by the name of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Seattle is favored to win this game with a -5 on the road and an over/under of 42.
Fantasy owners should feel relatively confident that Geno can put together a decent game. He has looked better than Fields and can build on the momentum from last week. If you are in a league where a passing touchdown is 6 points then slotting in Geno makes even more sense than Fields.
Fantasy owners (as of publication) are starting Geno Smith over Fields just 26.44% of the time according to our decision analysis, which provides insights into what fantasy owners are starting in real-time.
Case to Start Justin Fields Over Geno Smith
On paper, The Kansas City Chiefs versus Chicago Bears could have been a highly anticipated matchup heading into the season. Unfortunately that is not the case having seen the Bears play the first two weeks of the season. And, even worse, watching Fields play.
Despite the horrific play from Fields and the Bears it is likely that the Bears will be down a lot and he will need to set a season high for passes thrown. Last week he threw for 37 and we suspect he will be in the 40+ range to have a chance in this game. Chicago is a 12.5 point underdog with an over/under of 48 which is the second highest of the week behind the Chargers.
Fantasy owners should expect this to be a high scoring game. Plus Fields and the Bears have something to prove and literally nothing to lose heading into this game. No one outside of Chicago thinks they have a chance.
According to our start data, the fantasy owners who own both players are favoring starting Fields over Smith 55% of the time and are rolling with the guy they drafted for their QB.
Final Verdict
Have to agree with fantasy owners here and start Fields over Smith but it is a nailbiter. No one should feel great about Fields in their lineup until he proves himself. Check in on Fields vs Smith to see if fantasy owners changed their minds as we get closer to kick off.
As mentioned earlier, if you are in a league where a passing touchdown is worth 6 points then it may make sense to start Geno. Otherwise you should slot in Fields for your lineup and hope Chris Jones does not ruin his night.
Fields could end up with a season high in rushing and passing attempts but turnovers could easily be the big factor in this one and can limit his ceiling.
