WR , Minnesota Vikings
When perhaps the league's best wide receiver heads to the IR, people take notice. So it's unsurprising that K.J. Osborn ranks at the top in Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) this week with a healthy 59%, which projects to skyrocket his ownership from 17% to 72%. Fellow Vikings WR also appears on the list, but he is already owned in nearly every league, so Osborn is certainly the more likely pickup in your leagues and who we will focus on here.
A fourth-year player, Osborn has flirted with fantasy relevance for each of the last two years, finishing as the WR38 in 2021 and WR45 in 2022. With the departure of , he was set to take on a bigger role heading into 2023 in the Vikings' pass-happy offense, but the selection of Addison in the first round slowed his hype train down significantly.
Still, through the first three weeks of the season, Osborn was playing ahead of the rookie, taking advantage of a healthy 94% route participation to rack up 10 receptions on 17 targets for 135 yards and two touchdowns. He clearly doesn't have much room for growth in terms of routes, but the injury to Jefferson means he is no longer at risk of falling to third behind Addison in the pecking order, and should mean more targets heading his way. Given that is leading the NFL with over 40 pass attempts per game, it wouldn't take a huge target share for Osborn to see flex-level volume while Jefferson is out. He's a great add if you need a spot starter for the next month or so, but be prepared to pivot when Jefferson returns.
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Emari Demarcado vs. , Arizona Cardinals
A UDFA rookie out of TCU, Demarcado finds himself second in EWI with 51% thanks to a knee injury suffered by in the Cardinals' Week 5 loss. With Conner exiting early, Demarcado took control of the Arizona backfield, finishing with 45 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries, plus a 12-yard reception on three targets.
Conner is reportedly potentially headed for a stint on IR, so Demarcado is an obvious target for anyone who needs an RB. However, I think our analytics reveal a flaw in the fantasy community's reaction to this injury, and that is overlooking Keaontay Ingram's chance of being the lead back in Arizona. Where Demarcado ranks second in EWI, Ingram does not appear in the top 45. However, of the two young backs, it was actually Ingram, a sixth-round pick in 2022, who was the main complement to Conner over the first three weeks, seeing 13 touches to Demarcado's five. Ingram has missed the last two weeks with a neck injury but is looking likely to return in Week 6, when I believe he will be the preferred early-down option over Demarcado.
Demarcado is the preferred passing-down and receiving option and will be involved. His EWI is justified, and you can certainly target him on waivers. But I would argue Ingram should be an even higher priority. Luckily, with Ingram's lack of EWI, you might be able to get him for a small amount of FAAB or a late wavier claim, or even pair them up to theoretically control the entire Cardinals' backfield.
WR , Indianapolis Colts
This week's fourth most competitive pickup with an EWI of 33%, Downs was a third-round pick in this year's NFL Draft after an impressive career at UNC. Standing at just 5'9" and weighing 171 pounds, he is one of many smaller receivers entering the league over the last few years. Like many small receivers, Downs has primarily operated out of the slot to start his career, running 83% of his routes from inside.
While working out of the slot, Downs has shown an impressive ability to command targets for a rookie, racking up 33 over the first five weeks of the season. He seems to be a favorite target of , especially: While Minshew and rookie have attempted nearly identical numbers of passes at 83 and 84 respectively, Minshew is responsible for 20 of Downs' 33 targets. This also means that Downs has a very impressive 24% target share on passes thrown by Minshew, which sets him up well going forward as Richardson is unfortunately due to miss extended time with a shoulder injury.
While a 24% target share is very juicy, don't expect too much production from Downs on the fantasy front. Unsurprisingly given his primarily slot-based role, Downs does most of his damage underneath, with his 7.0 ADOT ranking the 10th-lowest among qualified WRs. He also has just three targets all year in the red zone, with only one coming in the end zone. This means his value will primarily be in PPR or Half-PPR leagues, where he could be a decent flex option for teams looking for help thanks to byes or injuries. In those leagues, definitely consider adding the rookie to your rosters, but I'd look elsewhere in Standard.
