Best Fantasy Football Trades Week 8: Chris Godwin, Josh Jacobs, D.K. Metcalf
There's nothing more fun in fantasy football than making trades. However, it can often be hard to know which players to target, and which of your own you can get good value for. That's where FantasySP's tools come in: We can use the FantasySP Fantasy Assistant to find players that have the most Expected Trade Interest (ETI), and then cross-reference them with the Trade Value Chart to see how much those players are worth. Let's take a look at three players with high ETIs that I think are either overvalued or undervalued by the current market.
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Best Fantasy Football Trades To Make Week 8
Buy Low On Chris Godwin
There’s no way around it, Chris Godwin has been a bust so far for where he was drafted. After finishing as the WR2 in 2019, he has been a consistent top-20 fantasy WR (when healthy) for each of the past three years. His ADP was slightly depressed due to questions about the Buccaneers’ quarterback situation, so he was drafted as a WR3. However, Baker Mayfield has looked surprisingly competent in a Tampa Bay uniform … but Godwin still isn’t producing. He is the WR42 in Half-PPR, and only slightly better at WR38 in Full PPR.
But I think better days are ahead for Godwin. Given that Mayfield has been solid, Godwin just needs to hold up his end of the bargain, and the 27-year-old is still an elite receiver. His 81.6 PFF receiving grade is his best of the last four years and the 15th-highest in the league. He’s earning targets with the best of them, with the 16th-best targets per route run among WRs (27%) and the 18th-most targets per game (8.17). The main thing holding back Godwin’s production is touchdowns. He has the 18th-most red zone targets (nine), 22nd-most end zone targets (four), and exactly 3.0 expected touchdowns per PFF … but zero actual trips to paydirt. If you add the 18 points he has missed in expected touchdowns to his current total, Godwin skyrockets up to the WR21 in Half-PPR, despite the Buccaneers already having had their bye. He’s a great buy-low candidate if you are looking for WR help and his current manager is frustrated with his lack of production … which it seems many are, as his 16% ETI ranks sixth among all players according to the FantasySP Fantasy Assistant.
Buy Low On Josh Jacobs
Jacobs has already featured on this list once before, when I recommended you trade for him heading into Week 4. He immediately made me look like a genius with a 24-point explosion against the Chargers … but has been trending down ever since. Coming off Jacobs’ worst performance of the season, a 4.6-Half-PPR-point outing against the miserable Bears’ defense, his ETI is the highest in the league at 19%. And I’m going to double down on my original take: Buy low on Josh Jacobs. Our Trade Value Chart has him as the RB7, but I bet you can get him for much cheaper in most leagues, and I still think he is going to have more booms than busts in his future.
Usage is king in fantasy football, and Jacobs’ usage is still ELITE. Here are some of the most key stats for running backs’ fantasy football production, and where Jacobs ranks across the league in them:
- Snap Share — third, with 78%
- Rush Share — second, with 73%
- Targets — second, with 36 (behind just four games of Alvin Kamara at 39)
- Goal-line Carries — eighth, with seven
- Rush Attempts — third, with 118
It is important to note that this Raiders offense is not as good as it was last year, and Jacobs himself has also regressed: His previous career-low in PFF Rush Grade was 79.4, and last year, it was 91.9 … this year, it’s 61.8. He’s not going to be a top-five option, but I don’t think he’s commanding that kind of price currently. He should still be an RB2 on volume alone, with RB1 upside if he and/or the Raiders’ offense have a slight bounce back down the stretch. With the current state of the RB position, that’s a player I’m willing to buy at the right price, and I have a feeling that price is available in plenty of leagues.
Sell Low On D.K. Metcalf
After missing Seattle’s Week 7 matchup with the Cardinals due to a hip injury, D.K. Metcalf has a 15% ETI on our Fantasy Assistant. This is likely managers trying to buy low on the hyperathletic young WR after a slow start and given that he is now injured. If you roster Metcalf, let them. I don’t see a bounceback coming for the 25-year-old, and would rather move him now while his name and draft capital are helping to overshadow his mediocre production.
The thing with Metcalf is, this level of production is nothing new. So far in 2023, he is averaging 11.3 Half-PPR points per game. In 2022, that number was even lower, at 10.7. In 2021, it was 12.2 — better, but still not elite production. In a year with 17 WRs averaging at least 13 Half-PPR points, Metcalf’s numbers simply aren’t as valuable as his name would imply. This is less true for deeper leagues or those where you start three or more WRs, but in 10 or 12-team leagues with just two WR slots, Metcalf isn’t giving much of a meaningful advantage over replacement-level production.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying to move Metcalf for pennies on the dollar. But our Trade Value Chart has him as the WR35, and I’m fairly confident you will find someone willing to part with more than that, even after his relatively slow start.
