Dynasty League Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook: Is Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs the Best Option Moving Forward? Could De'Von Achane, Zach Charbonnet and Keaton Mitchell Ever Pass Them?

Dynasty league fantasy owners are always looking for the next star running backs that could power their teams for years.

In the 2023 draft class, Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs look like the best bets to be those guys. Who has the better long-term fantasy outlook though?

What about other rookie backs like De’Von Achane, Zach Charbonnet and Keaton Mitchell - could they also be those types of players? Let’s discuss.

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Robinson or Gibbs?

Robinson was the first running back selected in the 2023 NFL Draft, going eighth overall to the Atlanta Falcons.

He’s had a solid season so far, rushing for 612 yards and two touchdowns on 125 attempts and catching 29 of his 43 targets for 208 yards and two scores.

Many fantasy owners have been disappointed in Robinson’s usage, as Tyler Allgeier has also got his fair share of snaps and touches this season. Going into week 12, Allgeier only has 17 less touches than Robinson, despite Robinson averaging 1.7 yards more per carry. Allgeier has also stolen three rushing scores from Robinson.

Robinson obviously is the lead back of the future, but Allgeier doesn’t appear to be going anywhere either, and as long as Arthur Smith is calling the shots, Robinson might be prevented from reaching elite fantasy status.

Gibbs went 12th overall in the draft to the Detroit Lions, who also brough David Montgomery into the RB room during the offseason room. The two RBs have pretty similar stats right now, although Gibbs has played in one more contest.

Gibbs is up to 135 touches on the season. He’s rushed for 512 yards and five touchdowns on 98 carries and added 259 yards on 37 catches and 44 targets in the passing game.

He too has been cut off from reaching an elite fantasy level because of Montgomery. The veteran back has nine less touches and has taken eight touchdowns away from Gibbs.

Montgomery is currently signed through 2025, so the 1-2 punch in Detroit could be there for a couple more seasons after this one still.

Verdict: While just about every site I can find dynasty rankings on has Robinson over Gibbs in dynasty formats, I think the gap is much closer than many think. Gibbs is on the much better team, which gives him a boost at the early part of his career. Robinson is lacking a long-term quarterback on his roster, which I think makes the difference between him and Gibbs very slim right now. I’d still side with everyone else in the long run and say Robinson is the better dynasty option, but I’d want Gibbs this season and maybe for another season or two.

Achane, Charbonnet and Mitchell’s Fantasy Outlooks

It’s wild to me just how big of a gap there is between Robinson and Gibbs, and then the rest of the rookie running backs.

Achane maybe would have been able to narrow the gap if he hadn’t gotten injured and missed several weeks, but now his injuries are a concern in the long run.

In basically three games, Achane has rushed for 461 yards and five touchdowns on 39 carries, while catching 10 of his 12 targets for 71 yards and two more scores. I’d love to see what his numbers would have been if he had been healthy and played the past several weeks.

Achane is obviously on a rookie contract, so he’ll be in Miami for several seasons, unless they trade him. Raheem Mostert is the current No. 1 back - even though it looked like Achane had overtaken him before the injury - and is set to be a free agent after 2024, but could potentially leave after this season. 

I’d guess that the Dolphins will either bring Mostert back for cheap or add another back in free agency or through the draft to pair with Achane going into next season. They have to make sure they have a backup plan in case Achane continues to deal with injuries. Hopefully the young back is able to put his injury woes behind him and become the star he appeared to be in his limited action so far.

We might get to see our first real good look at Charbonnet this week, as Kenneth Walker is doubtful to play.

Charbonnet has been getting extra playing time of late, but this will be his first real big test. He did get 21 touches in relief of Walker in week 11. For the season, Charbonnet has 261 rushing yards on 53 attempts and has caught 19-of-23 targets for 92 yards. His next score would be his first.

Walker looked like he’d be the lead back in Seattle for years to come, but the uptick in playing time now has people believing Charbonnet could be the guy. In reality, it’ll probably be a mix of the two, with the Seahawks riding the hot hand, which will make it a fantasy nightmare.

Charbonnet has a ton of upside, but he’s going to have to keep producing to fend off Walker, plus any other backs the Seahawks draft over the next few years.

Mitchell has been a trending fantasy name of late, so I thought it’d be fun to include him on this list. His situation might actually be the brightest of any back in this discussion.

Mitchell has only played in five games, but shown flashes of brilliance when given some touches. He’s got 205 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 20 rushing attempts. Mitchell has caught four of his five targets for an additional 45 yards.

Right now, Mitchell is trying to steal snaps and touches away from Gus Edwards, the touchdown machine. Mitchell appears to be slowing putting Justice Hill onto the bench.

Edwards could be a free agent this offseason. Hill is a free agent after next season. Mitchell could also have to deal with J.K. Dobbins in the future, but Dobbins is also a free agent this offseason.

I’d think that the Ravens would give Mitchell enough opportunities as this season winds down to figure out if he can be the team’s lead back in the future. The Ravens will undoubtedly either retain a couple of their current backs, or replenish the RB room through free agency or the draft, as that position has been decimated by injuries over the past few seasons.

Verdict: Achane, Charbonnet and Mitchell have the potential to be lead backs, but we simply haven’t seen them function in that role to this point of their careers. For now, they look like potential No. 1 backs that will be part of start/sit decisions every week. For this season, it’s hard to choose a favorite, but I’d go with Charbonnet based on what we’ve seen over the past few weeks. For the long term, I think Achane is the guy I’d want, but I’d be mighty nervous about injuries.

Final Thoughts

To answer the question in my title, I do believe Achane, Charbonnet and Mitchell could eventually be better dynasty running backs than Robinson or Gibbs because of their talent levels, but I personally do not think it ever happens unless injuries are involved.

Robinson and Gibbs were first-round picks for a reason. They are uber-talented and are a treat to watch with the ball in their hands. Their organizations are being smart about their workloads in year one, which should indeed frustrate those that roster them in redraft leagues, but at the same time excite those in dynasty formats. Their fantasy values might not be what you could imagine for a year or two, but these two will be the face of the position for years to come. 

Since fantasy owners love lists, here is how I’d rank the five rookie backs in dynasty formats: Robinson, Gibbs - a decent gap - then Achane, Charbonnet and Mitchell. I’m a fan of all five though and think they all have bright futures, so if you roster them or have the chance to acquire them, I’m all for that.