Fantasy Football Players to Avoid or Sell Ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft: Derek Carr, Zack Moss, Quentin Johnston and T.J. Hockenson

These four players should be avoided or sold ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft as this year's picks could dismantle their fantasy football values.

Ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft, you might be sipping the Kool-Aid on a few players about to have their fantasy value blown up. An easy example from last year was Atlanta’s Tyler Allgeier, who was coming off a respectable rookie campaign where he posted 1,035 rushing yards and three scores on 210 carries. Was it foreseeable that the Falcons would select Bijan Robinson? Maybe, maybe not. 

But was Allgeier a world-beater? No. But he was a solid RB3/flex player for most of the season and finished 2022 with three straight RB1 totals (RB8, RB12, RB12) in Weeks 15 to 17. The common wisdom at the time was the Falcons were solid at the position and didn't need to spend such a big pick on Bijan.

We can't predict the future, but we can try. Examples like this happen every year, and you may believe you’re setting yourself up wisely with a young player on the rise when, in reality, his team is already looking to secure his replacement in the draft.

Here are four players, one at each fantasy position, I’m avoiding or looking to sell, even at a loss, ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft.

Derek Carr, QB, New Orleans Saints

There are more bad quarterbacks than good if you ask me, and Carr has been the poster boy for mediocrity for most of his career. The former Fresno State alum has one career QB1 finish in fantasy and came way back in 2016 (QB10). 

To his credit, he led the Raiders to the playoffs back in 2016, but he unfortunately broke his leg in Week 16. Since then, he’s flirted with relevancy by finishing 13th in 2020 and 2021.

Carr is a 10-year veteran with one career playoff game, a seven-point loss to Cincinnati in the 2021-22 season.

That’s where we are. Is he a bum? No. Is he great? No. Is anyone realistically trading for him or interested? I’m piling on at this point, but no, probably not. But after the Broncos effectively hit the reset button and cut loose Russell Wilson, we’re in a new plane of existence in the NFL. No one’s safe if you’re not the right guy.

The Saints continue to kick the can down the road regarding their salary cap woes. I have to believe that common sense will prevail at some point, and they’ll draft another quarterback or maybe give Jake Haener a crack at it to get away from Carr’s bad contract.

Dishonorable QB mentions: Marcus Mariota, Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brissett

Zack Moss, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

With all due respect to Joe Mixon, the Bengals are clearly okay with “good enough” at the running back position. They’re happy with table scraps along the offensive line, having used only a first, second or third-round pick anywhere along the line only once over the last four years.

I believe Moss overachieved last year with the Colts. It certainly helped that defenses seemed to have trouble with Anthony Richardson in the lineup to start the season, and once he was injured, Moss was more miss than hit.

Every running back struggles with health, but Moss has missed a few games every year since coming into the league in 2020. His 183 carries last year were a career-best, so one might believe he’s building toward something bigger or better.

Do I believe a fifth-year veteran RB who’s never rushed for more than 800 yards in a season does much of anything in his age-27 season? No. The Bengals don’t have another running back that will easily supplant Moss just yet, but they could add someone in the draft. And I believe this looks more like a muddled committee, with Chase Brown earning a lot of snaps on passing downs.

Dishonorable RB mentions: Chuba Hubbard, Alvin Kamara, Devin Singletary

Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

It’s not that I don’t like Johnston. I believe he has the highest fantasy potential of any receiver on this roster. The problem is that the Chargers are notoriously cheap, and this is a great year to load up on rookie wide receivers. 

With the No. 5 pick in the draft, they could also trade down if a quarterback falls to them, which would only net them more picks and more ammunition to dislodge the fantasy opportunities from Johnston. In my most recent NFL mock draft, I have the Chargers selecting LSU's Malik Nabers.

Any starter on the Chargers could qualify for this avoid list. We don’t know if Gus Edwards or J.K. Dobbins will be the lead back. Johnston and Joshua Palmer are the only receivers still on the team who had more than 150 snaps last year. And at the tight end spot, it’s a dealer’s choice between Hayden Hurst, Donald Parham Jr. or Will Dissly on who will start.

What a mess. I’ll pass on the whole team, Herbert included.

Dishonorable WR mentions: Christian Kirk, Zay Flowers, Terry McLaurin

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings

The tight end position enjoyed a bit of a renaissance last year, with Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson and Dalton Kincaid emerging as fantasy starters. That said, the position is still ripe for the picking when it comes to sleepers.

That’s why I must include Hockenson, who has carved out a nice role as the starter for the Minnesota Vikings. The problem is that the current penciled-in quarterback starter is Sam Darnold. And even if you believe Minnesota will draft a rookie quarterback, that’s not a ringing endorsement for Hock.

Sure, this offense’s unclear short-term future is baked into Hockenon’s ranking (TE12), but I’m drafting the position; I’m more drafting the offense around the tight end. Can the offense, quarterback and system support a fantasy-relevant tight end? In this case, no, not really. 

If Hock was the clear go-to guy like Travis Kelce, but breaking in a rookie quarterback while Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison absorb lots of targets, I’d be a hard pass on Hockenson, and I’d shop around for a value to fall in my lap on draft day. 

If, and this is a big if, Darnold is the starter this year, put your thing down, flip it and reverse it like Missy. Because then, Hockenson is a TE6 or better lock.

Dishonorable TE mentions: Tyler Conklin, Cade Otton, Noah Fant, Chigoziem Okonkwo

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