Fantasy Football Stars Who will Struggle in Week 1: Dak Prescott, Kyren Williams, Brandon Aiyuk and Mark Andrews

I did a weekly column last season choosing a star at each offensive fantasy position who would struggle. Sometimes the choices were right and sometimes they were wrong, but the process was sound: avoid the best defenses with fantasy players.

More importantly, it was a look at weekly fantasy starters, players whom you would usually never take out of the lineup, who could be considered for the bench. The term “star” was stretched sometimes, but I tried finding guys who would be in lineups in most leagues and should at least be questioned.

Well, we’re back with a new season and the same idea, as I’ve chosen one star at each position who will struggle in Week 1. I didn’t have to fudge the numbers this time: we have four true stars who have all had great fantasy success.

Quarterback

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns

Prescott finished as QB3 last season in a Cowboy’s offense that scored the most points per game in the league. He had career-best numbers in completion percentage and quarterback rating and his second-highest totals in passing yards and passing touchdowns.

Despite contract issues, Prescott looks set up to be a top quarterback again this season. CeeDee Lamb was fantasy WR1 last year, and tight end Jake Ferguson is back, but the team downgraded at running back (Tony Pollard to an older Ezekiel Elliott), and Brandin Cooks is a year older. Not everything is perfect in Dallas.

The real issue here, though, is Cleveland’s defense. The Browns were a menace last season, allowing the lowest completion percentage and yards per pass attempt; they were second best in passing yards allowed and passer rating, tied for the third-most interceptions and had the sixth-most sacks (all from NFL.com).

In fantasy terms, the Browns allowed the fourth-least points per game to quarterbacks, and they were also in the top four against wide receivers and tight ends. The entire defense was among the best in the league, and the pass D was a huge part of that.

Running Back

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions

Williams might have been the best player in fantasy football last season based on draft value. He was an afterthought in drafts, but Williams finished as RB4 in standard and RB7 in PPR despite missing five games. He was second in fantasy points per game among RBs behind just Christian McCaffrey.

The Rams have shown the ability to run the ball with multiple guys, but that’s a true breakout performance. Not much is different offensively in LA other than an upgraded line; Williams is in position for another great season, even with the addition of Blake Corum in the draft.

So, why is Williams listed here? Because the Lions had maybe the best run defense in football last season. They were second in rushing yards per game, third in yards per carry and first in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Their efficient offense wasn’t the only thing that fueled Detroit’s run to the NFC Championship Game.

The Lions shut down everyone, allowing 100 yards only to Baltimore and San Francisco (in the NFC Championship Game), maybe the two best rush offenses in the league last season. (The 49ers had exactly 100 and Ravens 110; they barely made it.)

Defensive stats are more volatile than offensive, and this could flip the other direction, but I’m trusting Detroit’s run defense until we see otherwise. That might mean a slow Week 1 for Williams and LA’s run game.

Wide Receiver

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Jets

Aiyuk finally signed an extension last week and got on the practice field. He missed a lot of physical workouts in the meantime, though he was often at practice but not participating. Without a full training camp and preseason, it’s reasonable to think Aiyuk might start slow.

That’s only part of the reason he’s here, though. The Jets did the same thing to receivers that the Lions did to running backs, shutting down the passing game and destroying fantasy value. Top receivers are especially susceptible with star cornerback Sauce Gardner leading the way.

The Jets were second in pass yards allowed per game, fourth in yards per attempt and first in fantasy points allowed to receivers (it wasn’t even close). This was a dominant defense that is expected to be great again, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them pick up right where they left off in 2023.

With Aiyuk possibly not in game shape and facing maybe his toughest opponent of the season, I see the star receiver starting with a poor Week 1 before improving quickly.

Tight End

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs

Like the others, Andrews is negatively affected by the defense. Let’s get that out of the way quickly: KC had one of the best defenses in football last season and return a lot of the same pieces. Cornerback L'Jarius Sneed was traded to Tennessee, a blow to the top-line talent, but that should affect their work against receivers more than tight ends.

The Chiefs were sixth in least fantasy points allowed to TEs last year and in the top four in passing yards, yards per attempt and passing touchdowns allowed. While the offense wasn’t up to their usual elite level, Kansas City was carried by their defense at times (and Patrick Mahomes, too).

Andrews is coming off a major injury that cost him the last seven games of the season. He’s presumably healthy, but it’s at least a small concern. Andrews also has played his best football without Lamar Jackson.

I detailed in a recent article about tight end tiers that Andrews’ best season (by far) was 2021, when Jackson played just 11 games. Andrews performed much better with Tyler Huntley and Josh Johnson on the field. These numbers I used in the previous article are pretty stark:

• 2021 per-game averages with Jackson: 5.1 receptions, 67.1 yards, 0.45 touchdowns
• 2021 per-game averages without Jackson: 8.5, 103.8 yards, 0.67 touchdowns

He can still thrive with Jackson, but we haven’t seen Andrews at the same level as he hit in 2021 in any other year. I like Andrews more as a middle starting fantasy tight end over the full season, but a rough start is likely against a tough Chiefs defense.