Fantasy Football Week 15 D/ST Start/Sit: Commanders, Jets, Steelers, Lions, 49ers

Welcome to the Week 15 fantasy football D/ST start/sit breakdown! As always, let’s start by looking back at last week’s results. I went one for two on the Start side, as the Titans handled the Jaguars en route to a top-five weekly finish, but the Dolphins dropped a donut against the Jets. I feel good about my Sit picks, though, as the Lions (four points) and Chargets (five points) both finished outside the top 10 D/ST options for the week. This week, with zero teams on bye, we have more options, meaning the standards are higher. Hopefully we can have a strong week for the fantasy football playoffs!

For more help with your toughest Start/Sit decisions, check out FantasySP’s NFL Start/Sit tool!

Fantasy Football Defenses To Start Week 15

Washington Commanders @ New Orleans Saints

As always, I want to start by featuring one team from my Week 15 DST Streaming Picks. This week, the Commanders get that nod, as they are still available in over 50% of leagues despite having a dream matchup with the Saints. Even with Derek Carr, New Orleans’ offense ranks below average in points per game. Without him, they are undoubtedly a top team to target for fantasy defenses. 

The Saints haven’t yet decided (or at least announced) whether they will start Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler, which honestly tells us everything we need to know about both of them. Rattler started three games with Carr sidelined earlier this season. In those three games, he threw just one passing touchdown to go with two interceptions, three fumbles, and a whopping 14 sacks. Of the 43 quarterbacks to have recorded at least 100 plays this season, Rattler ranks last in EPA per play, and it isn’t even particularly close. He is at -0.355; the next-worst player, Tommy DeVito, is 33% better at -0.254. 

The Commanders’ defense isn’t exactly an elite unit, but that simply doesn’t matter in a matchup this good. Start them with confidence for your fantasy playoffs.

New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars

I’m honestly shocked that the Jets’ defense is currently projected to be started in less than 40% of leagues. Yes, they have been arguably the most disappointing team in the entire league this season. But they still have a very talented defense that gives up the fourth-fewest yards per game.

More importantly, they get to play the Jaguars this week. Jacksonville’s offense ranks seventh-worst in points per game, fifth-worst in yards per game, and 10th-worst in EPA per play. Oh, and did I mention yet that they will be starting Mac Jones instead of Trevor Lawrence? Among qualified quarterbacks, Jones has the ninth-highest turnover-worthy play rate and the seventh-lowest EPA per play. He has made three starts, and the lucky defense facing him has finished as the fourth-highest weekly scorer every single time. Don’t be surprised if the Jets keep up that trend (or go even higher) this week. 

Fantasy Football Defenses To Sit Week 15

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles

My process for finding defenses for the Sit section is fairly simple. I open up our Week 15 D/ST Projections, scroll to the bottom, and look for teams that are being widely started despite very low projections. Almost invariably, these teams are those with good defenses that are in bad matchups. Fantasy managers often overestimate the ability of a talented defense to come through despite a tough matchup. 

This logic applies perfectly to the Steelers, who are the third-highest-scoring fantasy defense for the season but have a brutal matchup on the road in Philadelphia this week. The issue is that matchup is far more important for determining fantasy success than anything else, including defensive talent. 

And the Eagles’ offense is elite, ranking among the top eight teams in points per game, yards per game, and EPA per play. They also excel at avoiding turnovers, with the sixth-lowest drive turnover rate in the league. Jalen Hurts does take a lot of sacks, which should help the Steelers’ production somewhat. But, especially considering the Eagles' healthy 23.5-point team total, this simply isn’t a spot to trust the Steelers’ defense with fantasy seasons on the line. With zero teams on bye, there are almost certainly better options available on your waiver wire. 

Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills

We stick to the formula here with another great defense facing an elite offense. The Lions’ defense ranks second-best in EPA per play, third in points per game, and 10th in yards per game. But the Bills’ offense beats them in all three metrics, ranking first in EPA per play, second in points per game, and 10th in yards per game (okay, that last one is a tie). 

Vegas is clearly predicting a shootout for this matchup, as the Bills have a very solid 26.5-point total while Detroit is even higher at 28.5. Both of these teams are excellent on both sides of the ball, but great offense beats great defense in the NFL — Buffalo proved that just last week with their insane shootout against the Rams. If you are one of the 43% of managers currently starting the Lions’ defense, look for another option. 

San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams

At first glance, this matchup fits the theme of the previous two, with a great defense facing off against an elite offense. However, the 49ers actually haven’t been particularly impressive on the defensive side of the ball this year. They rank just 16th-best in EPA per play allowed, as well as giving up the 12th-most points per game of any team. They do rank much better as the third-best unit in terms of yards per game, but this simply isn’t the dominant defense it has been in years past.

Meanwhile, the Rams do have a well above-average offense. They rank 11th in EPA per play for the season; if we look just at games since Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returned in Week 8, they jump to seventh, as well as fifth in success rate. Especially without Nick Bosa, the 49ers’ defense cannot be trusted for this Thursday Night Football matchup. A bad defensive outing on Thursday night would be an absolutely miserable way to start your fantasy playoffs, so I recommend looking elsewhere if you have been relying on the 49ers’ defense. 

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.