Finding the Top Week 17 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Jalen McMillan, Jerome Ford, Seahawks Defense, Chig Okonkwo

Perhaps the most powerful fantasy football tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

This week is the fantasy football championship week, which means everything changes. Normally, I ignore any defenses listed, as they are just the week’s top streaming options and I prefer to focus on players who can have more of a long-term impact. This week, every pickup is essentially a streaming option — there is no more long-term to plan for. With that in mind, every waiver wire decision can be made by answering one simple question: Does this move have a chance to make my Week 17 lineup better? With that in mind, let’s take a look at the top predicted adds for Week 17.

Top Predicted Week 17 Fantasy Football Adds

Indianapolis Colts Defense (79% EWI)

It’s not surprising that the Colts’ defense leads the way in EWI heading into a juicy matchup with the Giants’ terrible offense. They made my list of top Week 17 streaming defenses, and they are absolutely worth adding if you don’t yet have your championship-week defense lined up.

WR Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (41% EWI)

McMillan has been a top 20 receiver in Half-PPR formats in each of the last three weeks. Although he has been running hot on touchdowns, the rookie has also seen solid usage over that span, with a 19% target share and a 29% air yards share on a 77% route participation rate. Heading into a matchup with the Panthers, who have a terrible defense but have recently shown signs of life on offense, he is absolutely someone you can consider putting in your Week 17 lineup, which means he is absolutely worth considering as an add.

TE Chig Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans (41% EWI)

Okonkwo has put up two straight solid fantasy outings, with 9.9 and 12.6 Half-PPR points over the last two weeks. Those numbers aren’t too exciting, but the way he has reached them is: Okonkwo has racked up 19 targets over the last two weeks, more than any tight end not named Brock Bowers. While his Week 15 route participation rate was just 52%, he jumped all the way to an elite (for a tight end) 81% participation rate on Sunday. 

We also learned today that the Titans intend to start Mason Rudolph on Sunday against the Jaguars. That’s great news for Okonkwo, who has averaged a 25% target per route run rate in six games where Rudolph played over 50% of snaps compared to just 15% in his nine games with Will Levis under center. He also gets a boost because the Jaguars’ defense is the seventh-best schedule-adjusted matchup for tight ends. 

With all that said, Okonkwo still probably won’t crack the top 12 in my tight end rankings for Week 17. After all, I already mentioned that he was at an unuseable 52% route participation rate just two weeks ago, and he has averaged just 5.3 points per game for the year. If you are truly desperate at TE for this week, Chig is a valid roll of the dice. Otherwise, he’s not worth starting, and therefore not worth adding. 

Las Vegas Raiders Defense (35% EWI), Miami Dolphins Defense (28% EWI)

I’m lumping these two defenses together because they are very similar. They are both mediocre defenses heading into dream matchups against what have suddenly become the two worst offenses in the league. For a full breakdown, check out my streaming options article, but the short answer is that both of these teams are very much worth considering for Week 17.

RB Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns (28% EWI)

In the Browns’ first week following Nick Chubb's broken foot, Ford saw very solid usage and came through with a solid outing. He racked up 21.6 Half-PPR points on a 73% RB rush share, a 79% snap share and a 15% target share. It is worth noting that the Browns clearly initially intended to involve D’Onta Foreman, who saw two goal-line carries on their very first drive of the game. But the veteran fumbled on the second of those two carries and did not play another snap, clearing the way for Ford to have a big day. 

Heading into Week 17, I’d be a little nervous about starting Ford. Foreman may return, the Browns’ offense is terrible, and the Dolphins’ defense is decent. But he is someone you could start if you were struggling for options at the running back position, and that makes him a must-add. Even if you don’t personally need help at RB, it is usually the scarcest position overall, so Ford might be worth adding if your opponent happens to block your championship opponent. 

Seattle Seahawks Defense (28% EWI)

Unlike the previous three defenses on this list, the Seahawks didn’t make my streaming article, but they were the first team to miss the cut. In their favor is the fact that Caleb Williams leads currently starting quarterbacks with 4.0 sacks per game. That’s a four-point boost in most defensive fantasy scorings, which can go a long way to allowing for a solid outing. 

The reason I didn’t include Seattle in my article is that Chicago’s offense has been looking more competent in recent weeks, and they’re certainly more talented than teams like the Browns, Saints, and Giants. With that said, the Seahawks are absolutely a valid streaming pickup for this week, so feel free to add them if the other top options are either unavailable or not to your liking. 

RB Gus Edwards, Los Angeles Chargers (23% EWI)

On the one hand, Edwards is coming off a 19.6-point outing and heading into a good matchup with the Patriots. On the other hand, last week was the first week all season in which he reached even double-digit PPR points. He has also been losing work to rookie Kimani Vidal over the last few weeks, and there is even a chance that J.K. Dobbins will return from IR this week.

With all that in mind, I earnestly hope that no one out there is having to consider the Gus Bus for their starting lineup in the fantasy football championship. But if you’re in dire enough straits or a deep enough league where you are that person (I’m in at least one league where I wish Edwards were available), Edwards at least has a solid shot to fall into the end zone. 

Philadelphia Eagles Defense (20% EWI)

The final defense on this list, the Eagles, didn’t make my streaming article simply because they are already rostered in too many leagues (87%). If they do happen to be available in your league, they are absolutely one of the top defensive options for this week against Cooper Rush and the Cowboys. Dallas’ offense isn’t quite as impotent as some others around the league, but Philadelphia makes up for the difference by having arguably the league’s best defense.

RB Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans (20% EWI)

For the first time all season, Spears took the lead role in the Titans’ backfield in Week 17. The sophomore outpaced Tony Pollard in snap share (60% to 40%), carries (10 to eight), and route share (58% to 33%), while they both saw four targets. Spears made the most of his opportunity, finishing with 20.1 Half-PPR points for his second straight week above 20 points. 

Now, it’s worth noting that most of Spears’ points over his two big weeks have come thanks to touchdowns (he scored two in each week). It’s also very likely that his usage has grown primarily because Pollard is dealing with an ankle injury. But the Titans are heading into a winnable game against the Jaguars, and any player who can score 20 points in two straight games is a player to consider. Spears is definitely worth adding, although he will go from a risky flex to a very risky flex if Pollard looks to be further along in his injury recovery by Sunday.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.