Fantasy Football Implications Of Christian Kirk Trade To Texans

One tricky move that NFL teams often make is to announce that they are “releasing” a player before officially making the move, giving themselves one last chance to shop that player around. That is what happened today, as the Jaguars traded Christian Kirk to the Texans less than 24 hours after it was announced that they were releasing the veteran receiver. Kirk is set to hit Houston's cap for $24 million this season (pending a potential restructure or extension), which explains why he was moved for just a future seventh-round pick. 

Of course, we here in Fantasyland don't care about cap hits and future draft capital. While Kirk is by no means a superstar, he's a capable receiver who racked up targets in Jacksonville. When a player like that moves, it will always have fantasy implications. Let's break down the winners, losers, and everything in between from this deal.

Sync your league with the Fantasy Assistant to get rankings, waiver help, trade suggestions, optimal lineups, and more. Not sure Who You Should Start? We can help. Utilize our fantasy football trade analyzer to make sure you're getting the best value.

Fantasy Football Implications Of Christian Kirk Trade To Texans

Winner: Christian Kirk

Let's start with the man of the hour. Once it was confirmed that he was leaving Jacksonville, this is about as good a landing spot as Kirk's fantasy managers could have hoped for. At this point in his career, it's clear that Kirk is not going to be any team's WR1. Based on his 68.2 PFF Receiving Grade in 2024, he wouldn't even be many teams' WR2. 

But, assuming they don't make any significant additions in the draft or free agency, the Texans are a team where Kirk can immediately be the second-leading target. Nico Collins is one of the five best receivers in the league and an absolute alpha. But Stefon Diggs is a free agent, Tank Dell is facing a long injury recovery, and Dalton Schultz is just a fine target-earner at tight end. Kirk should earn plenty of targets from C.J. Stroud, who is at worst a lateral move from Trevor Lawrence. 

Winner: Evan Engram

Update: The Jaguars have also released Evan Engram. He is no longer a winner or loser of the Kirk trade, but being released is definitely a bad sign for his fantasy value. Brenton Strange has filled in well for Engram in the past and gets a significant boost with both Engram and Kirk out of the building (although both being gone does increase the chances they add a replacement). 

Looking at their respective cap hits, it seemed very likely coming into this offseason that at least one of Evan Engram or Christian Kirk would not be on the Jaguars' roster in 2025. Now, it seems, we have our answer. There's still a chance that Engram will also be traded or released, but that outcome is much less likely than it appeared 48 hours ago.

Staying in Jacksonville is a win for Engram's value, as we know he has a solid rapport with Trevor Lawrence. Especially if the Jaguars don't replace Kirk, Engram should dominate underneath work in this offense. These numbers won't repeat themselves with Brian Thomas Jr. in town and a new offense under Liam Coen, but it's certainly worth noting that Engram averaged 9.2 targets and 11.4 Half-PPR points in 11 games without Kirk over the last two years. 

Neutral: Brian Thomas Jr.

We will likely see plenty of “Brian Thomas Jr. to the moon1!!!@$!@$” Tweets in response to this move, but I honestly don't think Kirk being traded significantly changes the sophomore receiver's value. For one, the assumption that at least one of Kirk or Engram would leave has already been baked into his value by sharp managers. More importantly, BTJ emerged down the stretch last season as a true target-dominant alpha. If he can keep up that level of play, the presence or absence of 28-year-old Christian Kirk is simply irrelevant to his fantasy outlook.

Loser: Trevor Lawrence

As I keep repeating, the Jaguars were always likely to lose at least one of Kirk or Engram. Don't overreact to this news by moving T-Law dramatically in your way-too-early Best Ball ranks, which should already account for that likelihood. With that said, I don't see the Jaguars bringing in anyone better than Kirk to fill his role, so losing a weapon simply has to be a negative for Lawrence's fantasy stock.

Loser: Tank Dell

Despite his small size, Dell has run the majority of his routes in the NFL from out wide, so slot specialist Kirk isn't a direct replacement for his role in Houston's offense. However, the Texans feeling the need to trade for a wide receiver is a bad indicator of their confidence in Dell's health going forward. It's probably a coincidence, but the fact that this trade occurred less than 24 hours after Dell's second surgery on his injured knee is an inauspicious omen. At this point, there's a very real chance that the third-year WR won't play at all in 2025. When he does return, having an extra receiver to compete with for targets is only a bad thing. 

Loser?: C.J. Stroud

This take (and the next one) is counter-intuitive, so stick with me. Prior to this move, it was essentially 100% guaranteed that the Texans were going to add a receiver. As much as I love John Metchie, Houston wasn't going to head into the season with him as their WR2 and Xavier Hutchinson as their WR3. 

And, of all the available options to fill the Texans' WR2 void, Kirk is probably one of the least exciting. Obviously, a big name like Davante Adams or Cooper Kupp would be better. But, an early-round rookie receiver would also bring far more upside than Kirk does at this point in his career, even in a weak draft class. In a vacuum, adding Kirk is a win for Stroud. But, given what it implies about the Texans' offseason plans going forward, this move is actually going to move the 2023 Rookie of the Year ever so slightly down in my rankings. 

Winner?: Nico Collins

The logic for calling Collins a winner is essentially the reverse of the logic I just used to call Stroud a loser. Collins is one of the best receivers in the league, but there were still realistic scenarios in which he would lose some targets if the Texans spent big to fill their WR2 hole. With that in mind, adding Kirk marginally increases his value … if only because it eliminates the slim chance that Houston may have signed Adams or spent a first-round pick on a rookie receiver.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.