Fantasy Basketball Impact Of Potential Trades: Damian Lillard To Heat, James Harden To Clippers

Of all the off-court drama in the NBA, where stars Damian Lillard and James Harden will play in 2023, may be the most pressing question that fantasy managers need the answers to. It's not set in stone who and what would be involved in trade sending Dame Dolla from the Portland Trail Blazers to the Miami Heat, or how a James Harden to Clippers trade that seems to now be halted would impact his value. Team uncertainty projects to influence two of the most dominant fantasy players in the NBA over the last decade. Let's take a look at what can be expected from Dame and Harden in fantasy basketball, whether they are traded or not. 

Want more info on the fantasy basketball values of the NBA's biggest stars? Check out our Fantasy Basketball Trade Value Chart to see how much every player is worth heading into the 2023-2024 season! 

Fantasy Basketball Impact of Damian Lillard Staying in Portland

If Dame remains a Blazer until the deadline, here's what fantasy managers can expect:

Elite Usage Rate: Lillard is already the focal point of the Blazers' offense. He tallied a 33.7% rate in a limited time last year, which is great news for fantasy owners. If he doesn't get traded, he'll continue to have an astronomically high usage rate. Portland is trying to get as much as they possibly can for Damian Lillard via trade. If the talks stall until the deadline, Dame will be shooting the hell out of the ball, the same way Kevin Durant did for half a season with Brooklyn before being traded traded for Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, four first-round picks, and two pick swaps at the deadline. Portland wants to prove Lillard worth more than what Miami is offering right now, which at maximum can be three first-round picks plus other assetts due to the NBA’s Stepien Rule. 

Dame should be a first-round pick in Fantasy drafts if he is a Blazer as the season tips off. 

Fantasy Basketball Impact if Damian Lillard is Traded to Miami

If Lillard is traded to the Miami Heat before the start of the season, his fantasy outlook could change significantly. 

Role and Usage: Lillard may not have the same level of control and usage on a new team right away. Miami also doesn’t play their guys a boatload of minutes toward the end of the season if the playoff race is secure. Figuring out a new offense and gelling with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo could take some time. Fantasy managers will want to be patient if Lillard is traded, as it might take a while for him to find his groove.

Different Surrounding Talent: Lillard's fantasy value will also depend on the talent around him on his new team. Sharing the court with Jimmy and Bam with could mean fewer points but definitely more assists. Pick and roll with Bam can be lethal, and Jimmy Butler is known to take a back seat in the regular season, which bodes well for Dame’s usage rate and shot output. 

Fantasy Basketball Projections For Damian Lillard in Miami

I could realistically see Dame with splits of 30 points, 4.5 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and .8 steals per game in Miami, while shooting even more efficiently thanks to Jimmy, Bam, and solid 3-point shooters around him (assuming Duncan Robinson is not part of the package to land Lillard). I am projecting 45-50% from the field and 38-40% from 3, understanding that Dame can either go off or have certain games go completely awry due to chemistry and ugly gritty Miami basketball. 

If he is traded elsewhere, it will always depend on what is given up, but Damian Lillard is a top 10-15 player in this league and a top five scorer in the game. He will get buckets in any uniform.  

Where Should You Draft Damian Lillard in Fantasy Basketball?

Dame projects to be, on average, the eighth overall pick in fantasy drafts now in Portland as the clear-cut number-one option. If he’s traded, he will fall from a late first-rounder to an early second-rounder at the very worst. Dame’s 3-point ability, scoring output, and overall ability is still everything you want in a core player for fantasy basketball. 

Fantasy Basketball Impact of James Harden Staying In Philadelphia

ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported that the Clippers and 76ers talks have ended for James Harden, leaving Harden seemingly stuck in Philadelphia. Harden has also said he’ll never play another game for a Daryl Morey-led team. Fun!

If James stays, he can easily replicate last year's splits of roughly 20 points and 10 assists per game, with one steal and half a block. However, it's already known that new 76ers Head Coach Nick Nurse loves letting guards shine, and Tyrese Maxey is poised to break out. His usage rate will increase, which could result in Harden’s stats reducing slightly, especially his usage rate. Harden’s usage rate has declined 13% over the last four seasons as he has gotten older. I expect it to move from 27.1% to 25% to account for Tyrese's improvement.

Elite Scoring and Playmaking: Regardless, Harden is a triple-double threat every night. He'll continue providing good scoring, assists, rebounds, and steals to fantasy managers and the Sixers.

3-Pointers: Harden is a prolific 3-point shooter, which is highly valuable in fantasy. Expect him to maintain his high 3-point production. He proved he can still score against Boston in the playoffs with two 40+ point performances.

Contract Year: Harden could find himself in a contract year if he does not come to a contract extension agreement with Philadelphia. Players who are in contract years are more likely to want to prove themselves, especially in their numbers; James Harden has done it before. Expect money to be a big motivating factor for Harden in the 2023-2024 regular season. 

Fantasy Basketball Impact of James Harden Being Traded

If Harden gets traded, it could change his fantasy outlook completely, especially if he is sent back home to LA to play for the Clippers.

Role and Fit: Harden's fantasy value depends on his role with the new team. If he joins a team with other stars, like the Clippers, he will not have the same level of usage and ball-handling responsibilities. Russell Westbrook, Terance Mann, and Bones Hyland already have a stranglehold on the PG position for the Clippers, while Paul George is an exceptional ball handler himself. Splitting duties with three to four other bodies as opposed to one or two in Philly would decrease James’ scoring significantly. 

Adaptation Period: As with Lillard, expect an adaptation period if Harden is traded. It might take some time for him to gel with new teammates (two new superstars in George and Kawhi Leonard) and a different system led by Ty Lue. We saw we saw Harden in a similar situation in Brooklyn, sharing the floor with two usage-heavy players in Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. In 10 Games with Kyrie and KD, Harden averaged 19.1 points, 11.7 assists, and 7.3 rebounds. This proves that with the Clippers, a team that could benefit from his distribution more than his scoring, Harden could lead the league in assists once again. Harden will always assist the ball at a higher rate around better talent and would be poised to go for another 19 and 10 season while being surrounded by two superstars in PG and Kawhi and operating in pick and roll with Mason Plumlee and/or Ivica Zubac efficiently. James Harden does what he does no matter what, and will make sure to get his in a contract year.

I can see Harden being a top 13 player on the 76ers in fantasy basketball, taking advantage of high usage rate. If he is traded to the Clippers, Harden's scoring would likely drop while his assists would rise, making him a top 20 player on the Los Angeles Clippers. 

The Bottom Line

In fantasy basketball, player trades can be both exciting and nerve-wracking. Damian Lillard and James Harden are exceptional talents, and their fantasy value can change depending on whether they stay with their current teams or get traded. They are also superstars in a superstar-driven league; their word matters. Superstars will get their shots, opportunities, and privilege as long as they keep producing in the NBA, and both of these guys should be fantasy basketball studs no matter where they end up.

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