Heat Fantasy Basketball Outlook: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and More
The Miami Heat had a little turnover from its team that made it all the way to the NBA Finals, but brought back most of its core players in hopes of more success this season.
Let’s take a look at which guys might have the biggest impact on the upcoming season and then list their Average Draft Positions (ADP) and determine if you should be drafting them at that spot or not.
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Jimmy Butler Fantasy Outlook
Butler is the unquestioned leader for Miami, especially after his magical postseason run he put together last season.
He started 64 games for the Heat a season ago, averaging 33.4 minutes a contest. Butler also averaged 22.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.8 steals and 0.3 blocks a game. Despite being the team’s go-to player, Butler averaged just 1.6 turnovers a contest.
Butler shot over 50% from the floor for the first time in his career, finishing with a mark of 53.9%. He was 35% on his 3-pointers and 85% on his free throws.
He should again lead Miami in scoring, although it’ll likely only be by a couple points. Despite not averaging the points some team’s leaders do, he stuffs the stat sheet enough to have a pretty high ADP.
Butler’s ADP currently sits at 24 in head-to-head leagues and 21 in category/roto leagues.
Bam Adebayo Fantasy Outlook
Adebayo had his best season yet a season ago, averaging a career high 20.4 points across 75 games. Adebayo averaged 34.6 minutes a game, which was also a new career high.
The big man also turned in averages of 9.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.8 blocks. Adebayo shot an efficient 54% despite seeing his field goal attempts jump nearly two shots a game. He was 80.6% from the free-throw line.
There’s games where Adebayo will lead the team in scoring, and it’s not often he’s going to finish below 10 points scored. He recorded 10 or more rebounds in 32 contests and had at least one block in 52 games.
Adebayo’s ADP is 31 in H2H leagues and 25 in category/roto leagues.
Tyler Herro Fantasy Outlook
Herro was at the center of trade talks all offseason, but now appears poised to play a big role once again for Miami.
Herro started in all 67 games he appeared in last season, averaging 34.9 minutes, 20.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.2 blocks a game. He shot 43.9% from the floor and 37.8% from behind the 3-point line. He was a career best 93.4% on free throws.
The youngster scored 10 or more points in all but seven contests. He also is a good enough shooter to go off for huge nights, with 35 games of 20 points or more. It’d be nice if he contributed a little more on the defensive end, but his scoring prowess is hard to deny.
Herro has an ADP of 60 in category/roto leagues and 65 in H2H leagues.
Kyle Lowry Fantasy Outlook
Lowry provided some veteran leadership as the team made their way to the NBA Finals. He’s been in the league since 2006-07 and is about to start his third season with the Heart.
Lowry played in 55 games, starting 44 of them and averaging 31.2 minutes a contest. The veteran guard averaged 11.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1 steal and 0.4 blocks a contest.
He shot 40.4% from the floor, 34.5% on 3-pointers and 85.9% on free throws. Despite being a primary ball handler, he averaged under two turnovers a contest.
Lowry has an ADP of 168 in H2H leagues, while sitting 135th in category/roto leagues.
Caleb Martin Fantasy Outlook
The play of Martin helped guide the Heat on their deep postseason run. He averaged three points more while shooting much more efficiently from the field. His strong postseason play likely puts him in the starting rotation to start this season.
Martin finished the regular season with 71 games played, starting 49 of them and playing 29.3 minutes a contest. He averaged 9.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1 steal and 0.4 blocks.
Martin shot 46.4% from the field overall and was 35.6% on 3-pointers and 80.5% on free throws. In the playoffs, he shot 52.9% overall, 42.3% on triples and 82.9% on free throws. If he can shoot closer to his playoff averages he’s going to be a much better fantasy player than his current ADPs.
He’s currently got an ADP of 192 in H2H leagues and 194 in category/roto leagues.
Josh Richardson Fantasy Outlook
Richardson was one of the few players brought in this offseason. The 30-year-old played 65 games between the San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans a season ago and now returns to Miami after starting his career there.
Richardson mostly came off the bench last season and averaged 23.5 minutes a game. He also turned in averages of 10.1 points, 2.7 rebounds and assists, 1.1 steals and 0.3 blocks.
He shot 43.1% overall and was a 36.5% shooter from deep. Richardson was 85.2% from the free-throw line.
Richardson will be considered for the starting lineup, but I’d expect him to come off the bench most nights.
He’s got an ADP of 219 in H2H leagues and 151 in category/roto leagues.
Other Heat Players to Consider
In H2H leagues, Kevin Love has an ADP of 222, while Thomas Bryant is at 249.
Love was another veteran leader for the Heat after being traded to the team during last season. He played in 21 games with the Heat and started 17 times, averaging 20 minutes a game.
For the season, Love averaged 8.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.3 steals and 0.2 blocks. Love’s best days in the NBA have passed, but he’s still going to fill a key role off the bench - with the occasional start - this coming season.
Bryant played 59 games and made 26 starts between stints with the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets last year. Overall, he averaged 18.3 minutes, 9.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 0.5 assists, and blocks and 0.3 steals.
Bryant will most likely be on the floor when Adebayo isn’t. If those two can play together, maybe Bryant can earn a couple extra minutes a contest.
Who Should You Draft?
Butler is the team’s leader on the court, but Adebayo is the more complete fantasy player. He’ll likely outscore Butler again this season, especially if he plays in more games again. With that in mind, I’d be OK not taking Butler at his ADPs and trying to land Adebayo a couple picks later instead.
A Heat player I want to target in the middle rounds is Herro. He’s pretty much just a scoring threat for fantasy purposes, but you aren’t going to find too many scorers going that late. I’d avoid moving up a full round or more for him, as like I said he’s limited to mostly points in fantasy, but drafting him a couple of spots before his ADP seems like a smart idea.
With Lowry getting up there in age, I’m comfortable taking Lowry near his ADPs. He’s an end of the roster guy, but will play enough minutes and produce enough to warrant drafting.
I'd be interested in Martin and Richardson, and they should also play some pretty big minutes and be viable fantasy options. They too are guys taken near the end of drafts, and they’ll play enough to warrant being drafted.
Love and Bryant are also guys going near the end of drafts. They both will have their fair share of strong games, but I’m not sure they are going to play enough consistently to consider taking them with your final draft picks. There’s players around them in ADP that will play more and fill up the stat sheet a bit better. I’d pass on Bryant and Love and watch them closely on the waiver wire.
