Fantasy Basketball Reaction to Victor Wembanyama's Breakout Game | Should You Trade for Wembanyama? Sell High On Wembanyama?
The hype surrounding San Antonio Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama has been arguably higher than just about any NBA player in the history of the league. It’s been growing for years, and after Thursday’s breakout game and his start to the season, it’s fair to say that the hype was warranted.
Let’s take a look at what the rookie sensation did on Thursday and what he's produced for the season. Now that we got a taste of what Wembanyama can do, what kind of averages should we expect for the rest of the season? Finally, we’ll address what to do from a fantasy perspective regarding Wembanyama.
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Wembanyama’s Season to this Point
Wenbanyama had put together pretty solid numbers in his first four NBA contests. He started each game and played anywhere from 23-31 minutes.
The rookie big man scored in double figures each contest, with a season-high 21 points in his second game, which went to overtime. He also had a season-high 12 rebounds in that contest, but had five boards in two contests and eight in another. Wemby had either one or two assists in every contest.
Wembanyama was making a big difference on defense, with six steals and nine blocks across four contests. Those numbers helped offset some of his turnovers (19 total) and fouls (11 total).
Game five was easily his top performance. He played 34 minutes and helped the Spurs to a win over the Phoenix Suns.
Wemby got 26 shots up, making 15. He made half of his 3-pointers and 5-of-6 at the free-throw line to finish with 38 points. The efficient scoring night had social media buzzing.
He didn’t just score the ball well either. Wemby filled the stat sheet with 10 rebounds, two assists, two blocks and one steal. Even though he was heavily involved, he only committed two turnovers while being whistled for three fouls.
His breakout game put him in special company for his age.
What to Expect Going Forward?
The Spurs have some good scorers on their roster, but for the team to reach its full potential, Wembanyama will need to lead the way.
After his big scoring game, he’s the team’s leader in points per game (20.6). I’m not expecting Wemby to nearly score 40 points a night, but I think it’s reasonable to expect him to be closer to 25 points a contest. I’d argue that averaging nearly 30 points a game is doable, but NBA teams will adjust their defensive strategy on him and force others to score instead.
Wemby is shooting 50% from the field, which is a great number considering he is taking five 3-pointers a contest. His 3-point average of 32% isn’t great, but it isn’t horrible either. The bit lower percentage there and at the free throw line (73.1%) probably means he won’t average 30 points a game quite yet.
If opposing teams try to take him away, that should help Wenbanyama out in the assist game, as he’s averaging just 1.6 assists a game. Some open looks for teammates should help the rookie easily double that his current average, and I’d say he averages between 4-5 assists a game for the season based on what we’ve seen so far.
With his height and length, I’m actually a bit surprised at some of Wembanyama’s rebound totals so far. I expected him to be a double-double threat every night, but he’s only accomplished it twice through five games. He’s still leading the team in that statistic, and I’d expect more double-digit rebound totals as his minutes are expanded a bit. I’d anticipate him averaging somewhere right around 10 boards a game for the season.
His steal and block numbers also lead the team, and both of those averages (1.4 steals and 2.2 blocks) seem like good guesses as to what he might average. I could actually see a slight increase in each, which will put him near the top of the league.
I don’t think anyone can deny the hype anymore. Wembanyama is the real deal and is already one of the better talents in the NBA. The crazy thing is that he’s years away from his peak, and he’s only going to get better. He’s going to be a fantasy star, and already is showing that stardom as a rookie.
How to Approach Wembanyama in Your Fantasy League
If you took the chance on drafting Wembanyama, I absolutely would make him untouchable. Of course, if you are in a redraft league and a league member offers you 2-3 consistently good fantasy players for Wemby, I’d advise you to take it. But if you aren’t noticeably getting more value in return, I would not even consider moving the rookie.
As the NBA season rolls along, our player ratings will reflect just how great Wemby is. It won’t be much longer until he’s in the same breath as guys currently inside the top 10.
If you are in a dynasty/keeper league and have Wembanyama, I'm not sure if there is a trade package someone could put together to get the rookie away from me. Many fantasy sites had Wemby as a top-five dynasty guy, and nothing he’s shown so far makes me believe he isn’t going to be that elite.
That means you are going to need to pay up if you want to acquire Wembanyama. It’ll take an great talent to get the talks started, and after Thursday’s showing, I’m thinking most fantasy owners are going to want even more.
Maybe you can package a few good players and obtain Wembanyama, but for that to happen, their roster would have to be pretty thin at several positions.
My thoughts are that after what we’ve seen from Wembanyama so far, it cemented fantasy owner’s thoughts on him. If you drafted him, you aren’t going to want to trade him now. If you hope to acquire him, it’s going to probably cost too much for your liking.
All I can say to you now is: you better learn to appreciate Wembanyama’s talent, because it isn’t going anywhere for a long, long time.
