NBA Scoring Prop Bets 12/8: Mikal Bridges, Kyle Kuzma, Jalen Brunson

There is a big slate of NBA games on Friday, with all 26 teams not in the In-Season semifinals in action.  That means a lot of player props, and we are going to look at five players with reasons to expect high-scoring games.

All these guys are great scorers, but they also have great matchups in terms of defensive ratings against their position.  I relied on the defensive rankings against positions from FantasySP and Fantasy Pros.  Most stats and advanced stats are from NBA.com.

All lines are from FanDuel and correct as of 1 pm Eastern Standard Time on 12/06/23.

 

Paul George (23.6 PPG) and Kawhi Leonard (21.6 PPG), Los Angeles Clippers @ Utah Jazz

George OVER/UNDER: 23.5 Points

Leonard OVER/UNDER: 23.5 Points

Utah has allowed the second-most points per game to forwards, and Fantasy Pros breaks it down to fifth-most to small forwards and second-most to power forwards.  George and Leonard both fit anywhere from the 2-4, but they would best be defined as “forwards.”

The two Clipper stars have both scored 20 points in the same game eight times in 20 games this season.  (They have both played all 20 games, which is something in itself.)  They have both hit 24 points just four times in the same game.

When these teams faced off on October 27^th, George had 36 points and Leonard 25, making it one of four occasions both players topped this over/under number.  As much as I want to like this bet for both players, I don’t know who to trust.

If you like one of these guys more and feel like it’s his day, this is a good bet.  I am held back because either player could dominate while the other has less than 20 points.  It feels a little too unclear.

Confidence Rating: 2 out of 5 for both

 

Mikal Bridges (23.3 PPG), Brooklyn Nets vs Washington Wizards

OVER/UNDER: 25.5 Points

I’m going to be picking on the Wizards a lot this year.  Not only are they a sieve on defense against all positions, but they are playing at the second-fastest pace in the league.  That means opponents get extra opportunities against a bad defense.

Enter Bridges, who is second on his team in points per game and field goal attempts per game (behind Cam Thomas in both).  Bridges was a good role player on a great Suns team, but he has been given the opportunity to be the top dog in Brooklyn and made the most of it.

These teams matched up on November 12^th, and Bridges led all players with 27 points and 13 rebounds.  The Wizards allow the most points per game to small forwards.  Washington plays fast and gives up points, and Bridges is likely to be the biggest benefactor.

Confidence Rating: 4 out of 5

 

Jalen Brunson (24.9 PPG), New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics

OVER/UNDER: 24.5 Points

Brunson is attempting the most shots per game on his team and scoring the most points, nearly 25 per game.  Only four Knicks score in double digits on average, and just two others are above six points per game.  There is a lot put on Brunson offensively.

The Celtics are allowing the fourth-most points per game to point guards.  These teams have played twice this season, and Brunson scored 15 points at home and 26 on the road.  Brunson is averaging four points more per game on the road than at home, so this game taking place in Boston is a positive.

The Celtics are one of the best teams in the league, and it will take a Herculean effort from someone to drive the Knicks to victory.  I have faith that Brunson, with the ball in his hands often, will be that guy and will beat his season scoring average today.

Confidence Rating: 3 out of 5

 

Kyle Kuzma (23.2 PPG), Washington Wizards @ Brooklyn Nets

OVER/UNDER: 22.5 Points

We’ve already talked about the Wizards playing at the second-fastest pace in the league, and the Nets also have struggled to stop small forwards, giving up the third-most points per game to the position.

Kuzma takes about four more shots per game than second-place Jordan Poole and scores nearly five more points.  The next closest player is 10 shots and 11 points per game shy of Kuzma.  Those two carry the load, and it’s mostly been Kuzma’s show.

When these teams matched up on November 12^th, Kuzma had just 15 points on 4-16 shooting.  That might be evidence against him reaching this number, but that was his worst game of the season in which he played at least 30 minutes.

I see that as more of an off day for Kuzma rather than Brooklyn shutting him down.  The Wizards are no good, but somebody has to take the shots.  Kuzma is going to be an ultimate bad team-good stats player this season.

Confidence Rating: 4 out of 5