NFL Playoff Picture Entering Week 18: A Huge Sunday Night Game, Battles for Seeding, and the Last Few Remaining Playoff Spots

Well, this is it. We made it to the last week of the NFL regular season. Remember when it was just Week 1? I do, like it was yesterday. That was a good day. We’re running out of football season, so it’s time to take in all we can before it’s ripped away for about six months.

Let’s look at the playoff picture heading into Week 18, which spots are still up for grabs, and what kind of shuffling could happen depending on results in the final week. Ties are part of the equation, but I’m only going to talk about wins and losses below while acknowledging that there is a small chance that an important Week 18 game could end deadlocked.

AFC Playoff Picture

AFC West Champs and No. 1 Seed – Kansas City Chiefs

KC is on easy street. At 15-1, they have locked up everything they can and have the opportunity to give Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, and more the week off heading into the postseason.

Some will argue that those players should at least take the field for a quarter so that they don’t go such a long stretch without game action, but these guys have done it before. Playing a few drives in Week 18 like it’s a preseason game isn’t going to be the difference between a Super Bowl title and losing their first playoff game.

I will always advocate for sitting guys when possible, and you’ll see that reflected throughout this article. Health is the most important thing, and the only way to guarantee health is by not having that player on the field.

AFC East Champs and No. 2 Seed – Buffalo Bills

Just like their foes in Kansas City, Buffalo can’t change their playoff fate in Week 18 and have the chance to sit guys. Josh Allen, James Cook, and a few of the defensive stars could surely use a week of rest before starting the toughest stretch of the season.

An argument I often hear is that you shouldn’t sit players to protect them because “injuries can happen any time,” and avoiding reps won’t guarantee health. Absolutely, I agree that injuries CAN happen any time. By limiting the number of high-intensity reps and the contact a player takes, you can lessen the probability of that guy getting injured, even if it’s only a minimal advantage.

AFC North Battle – Baltimore Ravens (11-5) and Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

Baltimore did what they needed to do in Weeks 16 and 17, first taking care of the Steelers to tie the division then dominating Houston on Christmas Day to move ahead of their foes. Pittsburgh’s loss to Kansas City that same day likely sealed their fate as a wild card team.

The Steelers must beat the Bengals and have Baltimore lose to Cleveland for Pittsburgh to take the third seed. Most likely, the Ravens will handle the Browns on Saturday, and the Steelers will need to win their game to hold off the Chargers for the No. 5 spot (which we’ll talk about more in a minute).

AFC West Champs and No. 4 Seed – Houston Texans

Add Houston to the list of teams on Week 18 cruise control. They will be the lowest-seeded division winner and play the top wild card in the first round. That is often an unenviable position to be in, but at least the Texans get to play at home.

AFC Wild Card Lock – Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have a chance to jump into the fifth seed. If positions hold, the difference between the fifth and sixth seeds means the difference between going to Houston or going to Baltimore. I can’t properly express how much more I’d rather face the Texans than the Ravens while only using PG language.

LA just needs to win and have the Steelers lose to the Bengals to enter the postseason as the top wild card. Easy enough.

AFC Race for No. 7 Seed – Denver Broncos (9-7), Miami Dolphins (8-8), and Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)

This is the most exciting scenario of the AFC playoff picture, as all three teams will either be the seventh seed or they won’t make the playoffs. A first-round matchup with Buffalo isn’t fun, but it’s all that’s available; beggars can’t be choosers in this case.

If the Broncos win at home against the Chiefs in Week 18, they will secure that final spot. Kansas City has the top seed locked up and should rest a lot of starters, meaning an easier game for Denver. Nothing is guaranteed, though, and the Broncos will need to play a complete game to beat even the second unit of the defending champs.

A Denver loss would open the door for the Dolphins and Bengals, in that order. Miami just needs a win paired with the Broncos going down to grab the last spot regardless of what Cincinnati does.

That means the Bengals need a win against the Steelers, a Broncos loss to KC, and a Miami loss to the Jets. That’s a lot to ask. That’s the position the team has put themselves in by going .500 to this point, though, so all they can do is win and hope for the best.

Early numbers from ESPN show the Broncos as heavy favorites (-9, with the expectation the Chiefs will sit their starters), the Dolphins as 2.5-point favorites in New York, and Cincinnati as three-point favorites in Pittsburgh. Things don’t always go that easily, though, and this will be a fun situation to watch unfold in the final week.

NFC Playoff Picture

NFC North: Battle for the No. 1 Seed – Detroit Lions (14-2) and Minnesota Vikings (14-2)

This is as easy as it gets: these teams face off on Sunday night in Week 18, and whoever wins gets the top spot in the NFC while the loser is the No. 5 seed and plays on the road in the first round of the playoffs.

NFC East Champs and No. 2 Seed – Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts went down early in Week 16 against the Commanders with his team holding a double-digit lead. They couldn’t finish the job, though, and that loss doomed Philly’s bid for the top seed in the NFC.

Locked into the second spot, the Eagles can sit their starters. They are probably going to play Saquon Barkley and force him over 100 yards, because that is the number he needs to break the all-time single season rushing record.

Forget that he will need a 17th game to accomplish the feat: What’s more important, breaking an individual record or entering the playoffs at full strength when the team has a real shot at winning a Super Bowl? I won’t blame Barkley and the Eagles for chasing the record, but it will spur a LOT of conversation if a player with a history of injuries goes down for the season trying to chase a personal mark.

NFC West Champs – Los Angels Rams (10-6)

The Rams currently hold the third seed. The only way they could drop to No. 4 is if they lose to the Seahawks and Tampa Bay beats the Saints. That is a plausible scenario, so LA will have to come out and handle their business to lock into third place in the NFC.

That spot is important because the third seed will play either the Commanders or Packers, while the team that ends up with the fourth seed will have to face the loser of the Lions/Vikings game. None of those opponents will be easy to beat, but staying away from a team with one of the best records in football is probably ideal.

Battle for the NFC South – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) and Atlanta Falcons (8-8)

I just mentioned that Tampa can move into the No. 3 spot if they win and the Rams lose, but the Bucs need to win just to ensure they make the playoffs. Atlanta holds the tiebreaker over the Bucs because they won both head-to-head matchups, so they can overtake Tampa Bay if the teams have the same record.

Both teams are favored to win: ESPN opened with the Falcons as 8.5-point favorites and the Buccaneers as 13-point favorites. The most likely outcome is that both teams win, and the Bucs win the division as the third or fourth seed, depending on how the Rams do.

NFC No. 6 and No. 7 Seeds – Washington Commanders (11-5) and Green Bay Packers (11-5)

Washington’s win over the Falcons on Sunday night locked up the final wild card spot. These teams will be the sixth and seventh seeds in the NFC, with the Commanders holding the tiebreaker if they finish with the same record.

There’s a major incentive to finish sixth because the team that ends up with the final spot will have to travel to play the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs. Going to Los Angeles or Tampa Bay isn’t necessarily an easy task, but it’s much more appealing than heading to Philly.

Washington is a 3.5-point favorite in Dallas; Green Bay is favored by 8.5 at home against Chicago. The door is opened just a bit for the Packers to sneak above the Commanders, but Washington can lock in their position and a very winnable first playoff game with a victory.