Fantasy Impact of Alvin Kamara's 3 Game Suspension

After a process that took seemingly forever, we finally have some clarity on New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara's standing with the league. After a meeting with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell earlier in the week, Kamara has been slapped with a three-game suspension according to Adam Schefter.

It has been a year and a half since Saints' running back Alvin Kamara was involved in an assault at a Las Vegas casino in February 2022. After waiting all last season for the hammer to drop the league has finally disciplined the star rusher one day after the 2023 preseason kicks off. This provides some much-needed clarity for fantasy owners who now have the information they need to weigh the risk and reward factors when it comes to Kamara, who has already seen his ADP drop to the lowest it's been since prior to his rookie campaign. 

There has been wild speculation since the footage of the assault was released to the public. Fantasy owners didn't know if he'd be suspended for 12 games or no games at all. Since the case was settled less than a month ago most in the industry believed his suspension would range somewhere between two and six games. In the end, a three-game suspension was about the best fantasy owners could have hoped for.  

Fantasy Impact

Alvin Kamara

The first player we have to talk about is Kamara himself. As we mentioned earlier, his ADP is already very low for him as he is being drafted at the six-seven turn as the RB29. His ADP dip is due to his declining stats and efficiency just as much as it is his legal concerns. Despite fantasy owners knowing the other foot would eventually drop, we still anticipate his ADP drops further after this news. However, it's not impossible that some owners are happy with just three games and his ADP begins to climb back up once fantasy owners decide to buy the dip because they like the value and upside as his price drops. His absence could open the door for some other guys to earn an increased role in his absence.

 

 

Jamaal Williams

Williams is coming off a monster year in Detroit and was brought in to fill that Mark Ingram role for New Orleans. You also have to believe that he was brought in because the team knew a suspension was looming. In 2022, Williams rushed for over 1,000 yards and scored a league-best 17 touchdowns. He's currently being drafted as the RB36 and we anticipate that he will creep up and be drafted as a top-30 back. Truth is, he probably should have been drafted higher, to begin with. This suspension gives him legitimate RB1 upside for the first month of the season. He should already be in for another big TD year with Kamara coming off a career-low four-TD season (two rushing). While will likely lose some volume after Week 3, we still expect him to be a major factor in this offense, and fantasy owners should draft him with that in mind. 

Kendre Miller

This makes Miller very interesting, however, there is a chance that the rookie won't be able to capitalize on the early opportunity due to an MCL injury he suffered in the Fiesta Bowl last season while at TCU. We graded Miller out as the second-best running back in this year's draft when healthy and the RB3 despite the injury. The Saints obviously agreed as they still drafted him on Day 2 despite the knee injury. While he's currently on the NFI list, if he is ready to go Week 1 he may take the rock and never look back. He's the future of the Saints' backfield and he has a chance to become the present in a hurry. Right now, he's being drafted as the RB49 in the 12th round. You need to draft him every single time he's there and you should probably reach even higher for him.      

 

Michael Thomas

To a lesser degree, MT could see a nice bump in targets early in the season. Both Kamara and Thomas have historically seen an increase in volume when the other is sidelined. Of course, neither is the player they once were and Thomas has his own health issues to overcome. Nevertheless, he could get off to a hot start in PPR leagues and help your team win while building up trade value. This is just a tidbit to keep in mind when you're drafting that you could perhaps use a tiebreaker when drafting your WR5.