Week 1 Fantasy Football Trade Value Charts: Marquise Brown, Marvin Mims, Deon Jackson, Quentin Johnston

It may seem strange to have a trade-focused article before the fantasy football season has even started. But with the 24/7 news cycle that surrounds the NFL these days, player values are constantly shifting. Even if your draft was just a few days ago, there are likely already players that would be taken somewhere entirely different if it happened today ... Travis Kelce, anyone? 

With that in mind, let's take a look at some buy-low and sell-high options, using FantasySP's Trade Value Chart to help identify the best targets.

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Week 1 Fantasy Football Buy-Low Targets

WR Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals

Brown is perhaps the biggest victim of a larger trend, which is that everyone is entirely out on the 2023 Arizona Cardinals. With a new head coach, a new GM, and star QB Kyler Murray set to miss at least half the season recovering from an ACL injury, the Cardinals have the lowest win of any NFL team at a putrid 4.5. An already talent-starved roster has become even thinner thanks to the recent trades of Josh Jones and Isaiah Simmons, as the Cardinals unload players on the last year of their deals in preparation for a season of tanking.

All the bad vibes surrounding the Cardinals organization have affected Brown's stock greatly over the past few months: According to our ADP Tool, he has fallen over a whole round in ADP during draft season, currently landing as the 81st overall pick on average.

However, I think these concerns are overblown. In 12 games last year, including four without Kyler (and five competing with DeAndre Hopkins for targets), the man they call Hollywood averaged 5.6 receptions on 8.9 targets for 59.1 yards. The most important of those numbers is Brown's 8.9 targets per game, which landed him 12th in the league, despite Hopkins racking up a massive 10.7 targets per game of his own. With Hopkins firmly out of the picture, I see no reason to predict huge regression on this front for Brown, even if the Cardinals' offense looks different without Kyler and former HC Kliff Kingsbury. 

And speaking of Kyler, I'm not anywhere near as certain as the general fantasy community seems to be that we don't see him this year. Tanking isn't as common in the NFL as in other sports, and while it's one thing to jettison talent and prepare for a rebuild, it's another to not play your young superstar QB when he's healthy. The typical return time for an ACL tear in the NFL is nine to ten months ... it will have been nine months from Murray's Week 14 injury in just six days. This next one is a bit of a narrative take, so feel free to ignore it ... but I don't think you name a guy your captain if you plan to bench him all season and tank for his replacement. 

At the very least, Brown should be a target hog on a team that will be playing from behind often. At best, Murray returns earlier than expected and he can produce like a bonafide high-end WR2 for two-thirds of the season, including the all-important fantasy playoffs. At his current WR31 price, I'll take that gamble.

WR Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers

I often find it pointless when rookies are listed as "buy-low" players early in the season. Unless you play in a super casual league, the manager who drafted a rookie likely knows that they will take some time to get going, and won't sell for pennies on the dollar after a week or two of lackluster production. However, Johnston may be an exception to this rule, as he has value has taken a legitimately surprising hit over the last few weeks. 

Where he was already expected to be clearly behind Mike Williams and Keenan Allen in the pecking order, most originally projected the 21st-overall pick to immediately slide in as the Chargers' WR3. However, recent reports are that he will not even be that far up the depth chart, as veteran Joshua Palmer has reportedly successfully held him off throughout training camp and preseason.

I do think there is fire behind the smoke coming out of LA, and even recently explained that I would start Palmer over Johnston in Week 1. Even if they haven't heard these reports, I expect some fantasy managers to start panicking when Johnston plays just a handful of snaps in his NFL debut. And that is when I think he could truly become an excellent buy-low option. I don't expect Palmer to maintain the job over Johnston all season, plus both Allen and Williams are getting up there in age and have lengthy injury histories. Like Brown, Johnston is likely to peak at the most important part of the year, and he's someone I would love to add to my bench for cheap if given the opportunity. 

Week 1 Fantasy Football Sell-High Targets

RB Deon Jackson, Indianapolis Colts

Don't get me wrong, you can't expect to sell Jackson for much, especially considering you likely just snagged him off the waiver wire. But starting running backs are gold in fantasy football, and Jackson is projected to get the start in Week 1 for Indianapolis. While everyone is out on the Indianapolis offense (with good reason), don't be surprised if he parlays that role into a half-decent fantasy outing. Jackson averaged 16.7 PPR fantasy points in his two 2022 starts, mostly thanks to a 10-catch two-TD game against the same Jaguars the Colts face in Week 1.

If that does happen, Jackson should immediately be on your trading block. Not only is Jonathan Taylor coming back after Week 4 (maybe), but Zack Moss is likely to be the Colts' preferred starter once he returns to 100% from a broken arm suffered in training camp. Moss is trending towards being active in Week 1, but will likely play a limited role. If you can use this fact to pitch a league-mate on Jackson as the Colts' RB1 and a viable fantasy flex, do it. 

WR Marvin Mims, Denver Broncos

The hype for Mims is absolutely out of control following Jerry Jeudy's turf toe injury. His ADP has fallen by over a round in just the last week, and his value just keeps climbing. If you drafted him prior to Jeudy's injury, I would consider cashing out now, or selling immediately after he hopefully performs well against the Raiders in Week 1. 

This take has almost nothing to do with Mims the player, and everything to do with his situation. His consensus value has skyrocketed thanks to his presumed role as the WR2 in the Broncos' offense, but that role is temporary. Jeudy has already returned to practice and is essentially guaranteed to reclaim his spot above Mims on the depth chart once he is fully healthy.

That leaves Mims as the WR3 on a team that couldn't even produce two top-40 WRs last year, let alone three. Yes, Sean Peyton's arrival should help, but it takes a truly elite offense to have three fantasy-relevant WRs. I don't see that coming from a team that finished dead last in the league with an abysmal 16.9 points per game in 2022. 

Mims is currently going for a top-150 price when his most likely outcome is flex production for a few weeks (in the least important part of the season), followed by waiver-wire level outings for the rest of the season. That's the definition of a sell-high candidate for me. 

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