Joshua Palmer FAAB | How Much to Spend on Joshua Palmer
Week 3 of the NFL didn’t have the same amount of big injuries to fantasy stars that weeks 1 and 2 did, but there were still a couple. Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams tore his ACL, leaving the team without a big-time playmaker and fantasy owners without one of the better receivers in the league.
The ripple effect of that injury is fantasy owners adding Joshua Palmer to their teams. Our charts show Palmer was owned in just 4% of leagues but will end up near 50% owned before week 4 kicks off. Owners that need to bid on free agents were using roughly 11% of their bid budget to add Palmer.
Let’s talk about Palmer and what he might be able to provide from a fantasy aspect, then dive deeper into the bid budget and determine what the right percentage of it you should use to add Palmer.
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Joshua Palmer Fantasy Football Outlook
Palmer is no stranger to the NFL. He’s playing in his third season, all of which were for the Chargers. Palmer had tallied over 1,000 receiving yards and seven touchdowns coming into the season.
Palmer has played 129 snaps through three weeks, which only trails Williams and Keenan Allen among the team’s pass catchers. Palmer has been targeted 13 times, 12 of which came across weeks 2 and 3. The wideout has eight receptions, 83 yards and a touchdown so far.
Palmer has been targeted three times in the red zone by quarterback Justin Herbert. He’s caught two of those passes.
Williams had been the Chargers’ leader in the pass game up until his injury. He’s played the most snaps (167), gotten the most targets (26) and had the highest marks for receptions (19) and yards (249).
Palmer had already been listed as a starter for Los Angeles, so it makes most sense that he’s the one that sees the biggest increase in his statistics minus Williams. Rookie Quentin Johnston has the fourth-most snaps played among receivers currently on the roster, but that total is just 48. Derius Davis has also played this season, but has logged only 20 snaps.
Williams has missed his fair share of games during his career, and Palmer has helped fill in at those times. Now in his third season, the Chargers will be hoping Palmer takes the next step in his career and becomes a reliable option for Herbert opposite Allen.
Palmer should get plenty of opportunities in the passing game, as the Chargers have already passed 122 times through three games. Los Angeles has the third-most passing yards in the league. The Chargers might not pass quite as much when running back Austin Ekeler returns from his injury, but his return also won’t hurt Palmer’s stock all that much.
How Much FAAB Should You Spend on Joshua Palmer
The 11% bid budget number attached to Palmer is the third-highest mark at the time of publication, trailing only De’Von Achane and Marvin Mims. Palmer’s expected waiver interest (EWI) of 45% trails only Achane and Tank Dell.
Palmer’s numbers in those departments are because of an injury, while Achane, Mims and Dell are up there because of monster week 3 showings. Palmer isn’t as flashy a pickup, but I also believe he’s got the best chance of the group to provide the most consistency for your fantasy lineup. Those other three players are all rookies, so Palmer also has some history to look back on for reference.
With all that said, I think using 11% of your bid budget to try and acquire Palmer is actually kind of low. I would have guessed his bid budget number to be above 15 and just a couple ticks below 20. Those numbers could rise as the day continues, so keep checking back in to FantasySP's Fantasy Assistant and the predictive FAAB tab to get the most up-to-date information.
I’d be comfortable spending anywhere from 15-20% of my budget on Palmer, especially if you owned Williams or have had lackluster numbers from your receivers so far. In the Chargers’ offense and with 14 games still to go, I could see Palmer going over 1,000 yards by the time the season is over. If he doesn’t quite reach that milestone, a few touchdowns should be more than enough to warrant a roster spot, and most weeks, a spot in your starting lineup.
