Fantasy Stars Who Will Struggle in Week 4: Lamar Jackson, Brian Robinson, George Pickens

Each week I have been choosing one player at each offensive fantasy position who will struggle to be productive, and the results have been pretty good, including in Week 3. I try to choose players who are usually in lineups every week or who have big stats/potential/names rather than just pointing out a lowly player who won't put up big numbers. I like to say I'm choosing "fantasy stars," but that term is used somewhat loosely in the universe of this column. Last week's picks:

• Daniel Jones was the top-scoring quarterback in Week 2 but faced one of the best defenses in football in Week 3 in the 49ers. Jones did, in fact, struggle, dropping from first to 31st among quarterbacks according to Fantasy Pros (which I will reference frequently for previous fantasy points).
• Dameon Pierce did score his first touchdown, but he gained just 31 yards on 14 carries, an average of 2.2. The fantasy results were OK because of the score and 28 receiving yards, and he did finish 16th among backs in standard scoring, so I can't call this a full win, but his overall production wasn't good.
• Calvin Ridley had just three catches for 40 yards, his second straight slow game after opening the season with an 8-101-1 line. Trevor Lawrence was a great option for last week's QB in this column, but I like using just one player from each team, and Ridley has struggled along with his quarterback.
• Logan Thomas was third in fantasy scoring among tight ends through two weeks, and I included him to point out that he was not a good option despite his standing and would struggle against the Bills. Thomas ended up missing the game, but Washington scored only three points, and their top tight end had just 35 yards.

Let's go ahead with Week 4. I've picked a bonafide fantasy star, a young player who is performing in the top 10 at his position, a budding player with a pair of good outings, and a former fantasy star who has fallen off out of nowhere.

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Quarterback

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Jackson said he was going to throw more this season, and that's been true through three weeks: expanding his stats to 15 games (the most he's started in a season), Jackson is on pace to have the most pass attempts and passing yards of his career. That's still just the 27th most pass attempts in the league so far, and that shows how much Jackson relies on his running to keep the offense moving.

He's on pace for about his 2020 rushing line, which was 159 carries for 1,005 yards and seven touchdowns. He was 10th in quarterback fantasy scoring in 2020 with inferior passing stats than he is trending toward, so that would place Jackson easily in the top 10 among QBs this year. He's seventh in 2023 and was the third-highest scorer across Weeks 2 and 3.

Jackson is still a very good fantasy player despite a seemingly down year. The team is struggling a little, and he hasn't topped 237 passing yards in a game, but he has been efficient with over a 70% completion percentage in each game. Baltimore is probably happy with their quarterback since signing his new contract.

Now the bad news: the Ravens are heading to Cleveland to face the wood chipper that is the Browns' defense (shout out to Steve Buscemi). Cleveland has allowed the least passing yards and second-least fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2023. Especially concerning for Jackson, Cleveland has allowed negative four yards rushing to QBs (not counting kneels). Joe Burrow was hurt in Week 1, but Kenny Pickett and Ryan Tannehill are both quarterbacks who can use their legs, and they couldn't find any space against a mauling Browns' front.

And it's not just quarterbacks: Cleveland has allowed the least fantasy points in the league to tight ends and wide receivers, and they are second-best against running backs. This defense is complete and legitimately could be the best in the league. You're probably starting Jackson if you have him, but don't be surprised with a low or middling output.

Russell Wilson and Jordan Love have good matchups if you want a streaming option, and Bryce Young or Andy Dalton get to play a sieve of a pass defense in Minnesota (though I don't recommend the Carolina options unless you're desperate).

Running Back

Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders

You might not think of him as a star, but Robinson is fifth in standard scoring among running backs (eighth in PPR) through three weeks. He had 20 touches in each of the first two weeks before being limited to just 10 carries in Week 3 as Washington was down to Buffalo early and had to throw the ball. Also, five of their 10 drives ended in three plays or less (not counting a one-play drive to end the first half).

He's still tied for eighth in carries in the league, and Robinson's volume is one of his biggest assets. His 50 touches dwarf backup Antonio Gibson's 14. Robinson has over 3.5 times as many touches as his fellow running back.

I hate this and don't want to choose Robinson because he was my biggest breakout pick among running backs for 2023. But Philadelphia has allowed the second-least rushing yards and least fantasy points to running backs this season, and they make life miserable for opposing offenses in general. Sam Howell isn't a very good quarterback, and he can't help create a lot of space for his runners.

Philly's one weakness against backs is allowing receiving production, as they have allowed the fifth-most receptions and receiving yards to backs (tied with one other team in both categories). Their 19 receptions allowed to running backs are only two less than the league high. While this would seem to be a silver lining, receiving production falls more toward Gibson; Robinson has three catches on the season, and Gibson had three in each of the last two games. Robinson saw only one target per game in his truncated rookie season while Gibson has caught nearly three passes per game in his career.

Robinson will have big weeks, and I wouldn't be surprised if he is a top-10 running back this season. Those big games are going to be harder to come by against the best defenses, though, and Philadelphia falls into that category. Most owners weren't counting on Robinson coming into this season, so you probably have other options you can plug in this week. If you need someone, Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson get to play the Broncos' defense that was just shredded on the ground by Miami.

Wide Receiver

George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers

After Cleveland, the two next best teams against receivers are Buffalo and Carolina. I'll just tell you now: I'm not going to try making a case against Tyreek Hill or Justin Jefferson. It doesn't matter the matchup; those two are the best, most consistent receivers in fantasy. It's the same with Amon-Ra St. Brown against Green Bay, to a lesser degree. I was going to pick Garrett Wilson against the Chiefs, but that just feels like cheating; Zach Wilson is so bad, and that offense so inept, that Wilson failing isn't a hard thing to predict.

Let's instead focus on Pickens, who has been operating as the top receiver in Pittsburgh since Diontae Johnson left late in Week 1 with a hamstring injury. Johnson is on IR and can return after the team's Week 6 bye. Pickens had a less productive Week 1, with five catches for just 36 yards, but his last two games have given a glimpse of his potential:

Game	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns	Standard Pts (Rank)	PPR Pts (Rank)
Week 2 vs Browns	10	4	127	1	18.7 (6th)	22.7 (11th)
Week 3 @ Raiders	6	4	75	0	7.5 (38th)	11.5 (38th)

 

Week 3 was OK, with 75 yards, a nice total, but not super productive in fantasy, especially on just four catches. Week 2 was a look at top Pickens, though, as the same four receptions went for 127 yards and a touchdown. Pickens is seen as a big-play receiver, and I liken him to DK Metcalf; they are similar in height (Pickens 6'3, Metcalf 6'4) and are receivers who can make explosive plays. Metcalf has three seasons (including this short 2023) averaging over 15 yards per catch, as Pickens did in 2022. Pickens' 18.4 number so far in 2023 will likely come down, but it fits with the fact that Pickens is a big-play receiver.

Metcalf is a slightly different player at 235 pounds compared to 200 for Pickens, but Pickens will grow in an NFL program, and he plays a physical style. He was called for offensive pass interference multiple times in joint practices, and it was stressed to him in preseason that he needed to let up; he will find a happy medium, but it shows that he isn't afraid to be physical. That can mean a lot in the end zone and on third downs.

Much like Robinson at RB, Pickens was my biggest pick to break out this season, and it sucks to pick against him. Week 2 is proof that he can have a big game against a tough opponent in Cleveland, but it took a 71-yard touchdown, which you can't expect every week. Houston has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers in 2023, and that's a trend: the Texans gave up the seventh-least receiving yards and fourth-least fantasy points to receivers in 2022. 

Houston limits opportunities for opponents, and that doesn't bold well for Pickens in Week 4. There's always a chance for a big play, but I'm looking at Pickens as a WR3/flex at best and trying to find another option. He's probably not start-worthy in PPR leagues, although Standard likes him a little more.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles

I didn't really count Goedert among the best fantasy tight ends until looking at Evan Engram recently and seeing that both players were in a group of six (along with Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, and George Kittle) that stood out from the rest as the top players at the position. They were the weekly starters, essentially. Kelce and Andrews missed Week 1, Kittle struggled the first two games, and Engram has been consistent but hasn't scored a touchdown. Hockenson has been a standout at the position, and Sam LaPorta has joined the group.

Goedert has been ... bad? After being shut out in Week 1, he had six, then five receptions over the next two games. Those 11 catches only produced 63 yards, though, leaving Goedert with the production of a player that's not fantasy-relevant. He is TE27 in PPR, a player who would never start, and falls all the way to 40th in Standard scoring. Goedert is probably being started every week because of name recognition, but he is set up to fail again in Week 4.

Washington has allowed the fourth-least receiving yards and fantasy points to tight ends this season with no touchdowns. If you want consistency, the Commanders gave up the fifth-least receiving yards and fourth-least fantasy points to the position in 2022. This is a good defense, and they have effectively shut down tight ends for over a season. Goedert caught a touchdown in both games against Washington last season, but he had only three receptions in each game for 23 and 26 yards.

ESPN rates Goedert as the sixth-best tight end in PPR and eighth-best in standard. How? Either they're not paying attention or just following a formula that spits out a number. I expect Goedert to be closer to the no-catch performance in Week 1 than his five-catch, 41-yard Week 3.