Best Fantasy Football Trades Week 5: Joe Mixon, Jaleel McLaughlin, Tank Dell
There's nothing more fun in fantasy football than making trades. However, it can often be hard to know which players to target, and which of your own you can get good value for. That's where FantasySP's tools come in: We can use the FantasySP Fantasy Assistant to find players that have the most Expected Trade Interest (ETI), and then cross-reference them with the Trade Value Chart to see how much those players are worth. Let's take a look at three players with high ETIs that I think are either overvalued or undervalued by the current market.
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Best Fantasy Football Trades To Make Week 5
Buy Low On Joe Mixon
Joe Mixon has the highest ETI of any player this week at a whopping 21%, and I think it's because he is such a perfect buy-low candidate. Over the past few years, the consensus on Mixon in fantasy circles has become that he is not a standout talent, but valuable for fantasy due to his perfect situation as the lead back in the high-powered Bengals' offense. But now, that offense isn't quite so high-powered, as Joe Burrow simply isn't himself while dealing with a calf injury. So where does that leave Mixon?
For my money, Mixon is a great buy, especially if your team has started hot and can afford to wait for Burrow to get healthy. But even if it hasn't, Mixon isn't killing you right now. He's averaging 10.5 Half-PPR points through four weeks despite all four of his matchups coming against top-12 defenses against RBs. That's not what he was drafted for, but it's enough to land him as the RB19 right now.
The reason Mixon is still producing, and can be an RB1 if the Bengals' offense ever gets right, is simple: volume. He ranks sixth among RBs in snap share, ninth in route participation (although just 20th in total targets), and first in his share of team rushing attempts. The Bengals have had just one goal-line rush attempt, which he, of course, claimed, but he also leads in the league in terms of short down and distance snaps at 93%, a good sign that he will continue to dominate in the red zone ... if the Bengals can ever make it there.
In terms of trade value, Mixon's FantasyCalc Redraft ranking, which is based on real fantasy trades, has him as the RB17. But our production and projection-based Trade Value Rankings have him much higher, all the way at RB11. I might not go quite as high as RB11, but his current RB19 performance is clearly Mixon's floor, and we know he has RB1 upside, so getting him at RB17 prices is a steal.
Sell High On Jaleel McLaughlin
Second to Mixon in ETI is one of this week's hottest waiver adds, Jaleel McLaughlin. Now, don't get me wrong, I don't expect you to be able to get much out of McLaughlin. But I also think he's very likely to end up on waivers again within a few weeks, so even if you get back a bye-week filler WR, it could be worth it.
For one, Javonte Williams' hip injury, which was initially feared to be serious, is reportedly not particularly major. When Williams returns, McLaughlin is all-but-guranteed to return to irrelevance. For another, I think McLaughlin is very likely to end up as another victim of looking much better to fantasy managers than to real NFL coaches, not seeing much work even in Williams' absence. He pops off the screen with the ball in his hands, and is certainly more explosive than Samaje Perine, whom he will split the Broncos' backfield with while Williams is out. But he has been asked to pass-block just once all season, and he was immediately run over by linebacker Jack Sanborn, leading to a drive-killing sack. That's the kind of thing that will keep a rookie RB off the field ... and it may have already in Week 4, as McLaughlin was barely involved in the Broncos' big fourth-quarter comeback.
?s=46&t=Ip42AyCa7MFiRlEwnIdjeAIf McLaughlin can't stay on the field for passing downs due to his blocking, and won't get goal-line work due to his size, he will need incredible efficiency to remain fantasy-relevant. It's possible McLaughlin can follow the path of another undersized rookie RB in De'Von Achane and carve out enough of a role to be a fantasy gamewrecker on elite efficiency. But I don't think the Youngstown UDFA is the talent Achane is, nor is this Broncos' offense as good as the one in Miami. Given all that, McLaughlin is a sell for me this week if you can find someone buying the hype.
Sell High On Tank Dell
We're sliding down the ranks a bit here, but Dell's 18% ETI still has him ranked ninth in the league, so you should find plenty of interest if you put him on the trade block. I want to start by saying that I like Dell; I think he's a talented player, and the connection he's building with fellow rookie C.J. Stroud could eventually become a fantasy goldmine. But I just don't see it happening this year.
The big problem with Dell, as it is with many talented rookies, is a lack of volume. Between emerging star Nico Collins and reliable veteran Robert Woods, Dell is third on the Texans with just a 17% target share and has seen only one red zone target. He also is behind the other two in terms of routes run, just slightly behind Collins but 20 full routes behind Woods. Of course, rookies usually take some time to grow into a full-time role, and things look much better for Dell if you exclude Week 1, as he passes up Collins and lands just five routes behind Woods.
Even with that said, Dell seems unlikely to be a consistent fantasy option this year, given the many mouths to feed in Houston's suddenly productive offense. We saw his floor in Week 4 as, in his new full-time role, he caught just one of three targets for 16 yards. Especially as the Texans' offensive line gets healthier and they can lean more on Dameon Pierce, I think these bust games will continue to be part of reality for Dell. He will still be a valuable fantasy asset, especially in deeper leagues or leagues where you start three or more WRs. But in more traditional home leagues, inconsistent WRs are a dime a dozen. If you can package Dell to upgrade to a true WR2, which should be possible given the hype he has been receiving, do it.
