Fantasy Stars Who Will Struggle in Week 5: Trevor Lawrence, Kyren Williams, Deebo Samuel, Hunter Henry

Choosing players who will struggle each week has mostly been a winning proposition, but Week 4 challenged that. Two of my picks had low artificial stats, but they ranked amongst the starters at their position due to touchdowns. We comb through so much information when making fantasy decisions, but every now and then Justice Hill runs for nine yards and two touchdowns. Here's how last week's picks performed:

• Lamar Jackson had only 186 passing yards (and lost a fumble), but he threw for two touchdowns and ran in two more. He was third among quarterbacks in Week 4 fantasy scoring. The Browns didn’t have Deshaun Watson, and it was a rough day for Cleveland overall, but this one is a loss.
• Brian Robinson falls into the same category as Jackson: he had just 45 yards on 14 carries and two catches for six yards, but he ran in a touchdown to salvage his fantasy day. Robinson finished 15th in PPR scoring and 14th in standard, so, despite low yardage, this one must be considered a loss.
• George Pickens was coming off back-to-back games with at least 75 yards, but he was only able to muster 25 yards on his three catches against a very formidable Texans defense. Pickens is a high-level boom or bust player.
• Dallas Goedert now has four underwhelming games this season after a two-catch, 25-yard effort against Washington. He is officially a fantasy crisis.

So, 50% isn’t bad, right? Let’s go again in Week 5. These are all talented players who have hellish matchups and/or something on their team holding them back. I don't have to stretch the word "star" quite as much this week.

Previous fantasy stats and rankings are from Fantasy Pros, and defensive rankings against positions are from Pro Football Reference.

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills in London

Lawrence is 19th in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks. The Bills have allowed the least fantasy points to quarterbacks and tied for fourth-least passing yards. Buffalo has the most interceptions and tied for most sacks through the first month of the season. All of that is enough to say Lawrence will struggle, but let’s dive deeper.

Lawrence had five top-five weekly finishes last season and five other weeks in the top 12 in QB scoring. His weekly finishes through the first month of 2023 are those of a middling quarterback: eighth, 32nd, 19th, and 16th. That’s not a fantasy-relevant player.

The schedule may explain his uneven play so far. When Lawrence finished in the top 10 in Week 1, he was facing the Indianapolis Colts, who have allowed the fourth-most passing yards and fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. His matchups in Weeks 2-4, the Chiefs, Texans, and Falcons, have allowed the eighth, ninth, and 14th-least fantasy points to quarterbacks. All three rank in the top 10 in fewest passing yards allowed.

We’ve already talked about how good the Bills are on defense, and Lawrence seems to be matchup-dependent right now. That’s not who the Jags drafted number one overall, and it’s not who we expected in 2023, but it might just be who he is right now. Jacksonville plays Indianapolis again next week, and that will be a better time to start Lawrence.

Running Back

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles

Williams has been a legit fantasy star, scoring two touchdowns in three of the four weeks and ranking third in PPR and fourth in standard in running back scoring. I'm not going to argue that he's been unproductive in any game; he's a big part of the reason the Rams are 2-2 when most expected them to be a bottom-feeder. I'm going to take the Devil's Advocate role for a moment, though, and look at his numbers in a negative light:

• He has only topped 52 rushing yards once in four games
• Half of his receiving production came in one game, when he also caught a touchdown
• He averaged just 4.1 yards per carry in Week 4 and hasn't topped 3.8 in any other week
• All of his six touchdowns have come from within 10 yards, including four rushing touchdowns of four yards or less

I admit that this is unfair and nitpicking, but there is one major reason he will struggle in Week 5: the Eagles' run D. All of those points above can be pointed to as facts that Williams has been as lucky as he's been good, and teams don't have luck running against Philly. The Eagles have allowed the third-least rushing yards and least fantasy points to running backs this season, including just one touchdown.

No player has had over 45 rushing yards in any game against Philadelphia, and two top rushers were under 30 yards. No team's running backs have gone 75 yards in a game combined. It's been a rough go for rushing games against the Eagles. A game in which Williams fails to be efficient and doesn't get in the end zone is very possible.

Most owners won't be benching him either way, but you weren't counting on Williams at the beginning of the season. There's a chance you have two or three backs with better matchups and outlooks, even if the projections say otherwise. Play him if you must (and he did well against the 49ers in Week 2), but don't be surprised by a bad fantasy day.

Wide Receiver

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys

Samuel has been a different player with Brandon Aiyuk on and off the field: he was OK Week 1 (five catches for 55 yards) when Aiyuk played and downright terrible in Week 4 with Aiyuk active (zero targets, three rushes for six yards). In Week 3, when Aiyuk missed the whole game, Deebo went for 129 yards and a touchdown.

Week 2 has an obvious tipping point where Samuel took over a larger role: Aiyuk was injured on the first drive of the game (and his second catch) and labored through the rest of the game, catching just one more pass while playing only 30 snaps; he had played 58 snaps in Week 1. Samuel had one catch for one yard at the time Aiyuk was injured (in a very small time frame).

Samuel took advantage of increased volume with five catches for 62 yards and five carries for 38 yards and a touchdown after Aiyuk's injury. Aiyuk has taken over as the number one receiver on this team while Samuel works as a complement who can be used a lot of ways.

The Cowboys have been a defensive menace through the first month: they have allowed the second-least receiving yards and four-least fantasy points to wide receivers, while ranking second in interceptions and tied for fifth in sacks. Samuel is coming off a game in which, again, he had ZERO TARGETS. Aiyuk will be the top receiver, and Christian McCaffrey will always be the focal point, so Deebo is at least third in the pecking order depending on how you feel about George Kittle (who I am way down on).

This game is more likely to be somewhere between Week 4 (0.6 standard points) and Week 1 (6.3) than reaching his heights of Weeks 2 and 3 (16.1 and 19.1).  There's always the chance of a touchdown or a few creative plays getting him the ball in space, but I'm not testing Dallas with an inconsistent player. He's a WR3/flex player for me at best.

Tight End

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints

Henry started the season as well as he could have hoped, finishing first and second in tight end fantasy scoring over the first two games and looking like a weekly starter. He has been just 24th in standard (22nd in PPR) over the last two weeks.

His first two games were against the Eagles and Dolphins, who are both among the top nine in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends. It's logical to think a change in schedule led to his fall, and Dallas in Week 4 was tough, but Henry faced the Jets in Week 3 (second-most receiving yards and most fantasy points allowed to tight ends) and had just two catches for 17 yards.

More concerning than the schedule for Henry is the offense he plays in. Quarterbacks who struggle can sometimes rely on their tight ends more, but Mac Jones is wildly inconsistent; he is league-average or below in passing yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. Don't forget yards per pass attempt, where he's 29th out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks.

The Saints are a tough defense, on top of everything else, allowing the least receiving yards and fifth-least fantasy points to tight ends. They're tied for fourth with five interceptions and have allowed the 12th-least passing yards overall. A Patriots' offense that has lost a lot of steam and a tough matchup have me skipping Henry. There are better options in Week 5.

#trevor-lawrence #kyren-williams #deebo-samuel #hunter-henry