Who to Trust on Patriots’ Offense as Mac Jones and Other Struggle
Through five weeks of the NFL season, the offensive team stats for the New England Patriots aren’t pretty.
New England has 1,437 total yards, which is the 10th-least yards so far. The Patriots have thrown for 1,018 yards, which is right in the center of the league. Those numbers are heavily inflated by a 382-yard day overall - and 306 passing yards - in week 1.
The Patriots are the eight-worst team when it comes to running the ball, with just 419 rushing yards. A 157-yard performance on the ground in week 3 has heavily boosted that number.
At the end of the day, the only true number that matters is points scored, and New England is dead last in the league at just 55 points - that includes the four teams that had their bye week in week 5.
Despite the offensive struggles, especially lately, the Patriots still are committed to quarterback Mac Jones. So what should you do with the fantasy players you own from the Patriots? Let’s discuss.
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Mac Jones Fantasy Outlook
Usually as the season rolls along, you want players to be improving their numbers. It’s gone the opposite way for Jones.
The veteran quarterback opened the season with 316 passing yards and three touchdowns on a 35-of-54 passing day. Since then, Jones hasn’t thrown for over 250 yards and has more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (2). He’s thrown for an ugly 260 yards, no touchdowns and four picks while the team’s gotten demolished 72-3 over the past two weeks.
It’s been tough to watch Jones of late, and there’s some more tough matchups looming this season. Things do get a touch easier over the next month.
New England will go up against the Las Vegas Raiders in week 6. The Raiders’ defense has allowed an average of 17 fantasy points a game to opposing quarterbacks, which is near the middle of the league, but in the bottom half.
Other games in the next month include the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins and Washington Commanders. While the Bills are the best in the league, the Dolphins and Commanders are in the bottom 10 for fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
Rhamondre Stevenson, Ezekiel Elliott Fantasy Outlook
Both Stevenson and Elliott have struggled to get things going so far this season.
Stevenson has been a bit banged up, and it’s shown, as he’s averaging just 2.8 yards a carry. He’s gotten 80 total touches - which is a pretty solid number - but gone for only 275 scrimmage yards and one touchdown.
Elliott has been a bit more efficient at 3.8 yards a carry. Overall though, Elliott has only 203 scrimmage yards and no touchdowns on 54 total touches.
Those numbers make both guys unstartable, especially if the team continues to fall behind early and is forced to pass early and often to catch back up.
Over the next month, I can see New England relying more on Stevenson and Elliott though, as only the Commanders rank in the top half of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing backs.
Pass Catchers Fantasy Outlook
If you thought the running back room in New England was hard to figure out from a fantasy perspective, wait until you read about the pass catchers. New England has five players with over 100 receiving yards, but none over 220 yards.
Wideout Kendrick Bourne leads the team with 18 receptions on 33 targets, going for 218 yards and two touchdowns. He hasn’t topped 50 receiving yards since week 1, when he also scored his two touchdowns.
Tight end Hunter Henry has 17 grabs on 25 targets, going for 176 yards and two scores. Henry’s touchdowns came in the first two weeks, and he’s been held under 20 yards in two of the three weeks since. In week 5, he didn’t haul in a single pass.
Receiver Demario Douglas is third on the team with 143 receiving yards. He’s caught 10 of his 17 targets, but has no touchdowns. His most receiving yards in a game was 45.
Wideout DeVante Parker has 129 receiving yards this season, catching 12 of the 19 passes thrown his way. He also doesn’t have a touchdown reception. Parker has not topped 35 yards in three of the four games he’s played in.
Tight end Mike Gesicki has 116 receiving yards, catching 12 of the 17 passes thrown his way. Not only has he not scored, but Gesicki hasn’t topped 40 receiving yards yet.
JuJu Smith-Schuster was supposed to give the Patriots’ offense some life, but has only 86 yards on 14 catches. He’s been targeted 25 times in total and also hasn’t scored. He hasn’t topped 35 receiving yards yet.
It’s ugly all the way around for those pass catchers, but some favorable matchups loom.
Receivers will have favorable matchups against the Dolphins and Commanders, while tight ends have above-average matchups against the Raiders and Dolphins.
Who Can You Start Going Forward?
Over the next month, there’s only one really tough matchup (Buffalo) for Jones. Given how he’s performed of late, many fantasy owners are still going to struggle putting him in their starting lineups. If you’re a doubter, let week 6 be the telling one. If Jones performs adequately, then he'll be worth a start against the Dolphins and Commanders later on. If Jones struggles again, then he won’t likely ever be starting worthy and probably loses his job anyway.
Even with a favorable month ahead for Stevenson and Elliott, their split workload makes it tough for either guy to put up solid fantasy numbers, even against lesser defenses. The team will probably ride the hot hand every week, only making me confident starting either guy in deeper leagues.
The balanced, yet inconsistent, play of the team’s pass catchers makes starting any of them a difficult task. I’d only consider any of them against below-average defenses, and I’d like to see a decent fantasy showing before that consideration takes place.
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