Finding The Top Week 10 Fantasy Football Pickups With Predictive Analytics: Keaton Mitchell, Khalil Shakir, Joshua Dobbs
Let's take a look at fantasy football's most popular waiver wire options heading into Week 10! We can use the Predictive Analytics tool in the FantasySP Fantasy Assistant to help identify the top candidates. This tool predicts the Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) for every player, plus predicts their new rostership level following this week's waiver moves. Here are its current predictions for this week:
Top Predicted Week 10 Fantasy Football Adds
RB Keaton Mitchell, Baltimore Ravens
Mitchell tops the list with a 44% EWI, and I can’t argue with it in the slightest. The Ravens have gotten solid production from Gus Edwards and Justice Hill, but, if the trade deadline rumors are to be believed, have been looking to upgrade at the RB position ever since J.K. Dobbins’ season ended in Week 1. Enter Mitchell, an undrafted free agent (UDFA) out of East Carolina, who had just two offensive snaps on the season heading into Week 9. He had a breakout game against the Seahawks, carrying the ball nine times for 138 yards and a touchdown, breaking off a 60-yard score, and consistently earning chunks on the ground. He also caught his lone target, although he lost four yards on the play.
It is certainly worth noting that Mitchell played only 14 total snaps, touching the ball on an absurd 71% of the plays where he was on the field. We have seen similar snap-to-touch ratios with other players this season, notably another undersized UDFA RB in the Broncos’ Jaleel McLaughlin. What this meant for McLaughlin was that, despite his skill with the ball in his hands, Denver’s decision-makers did not trust him without it, especially in pass protection. This eventually led to McLaughlin seeing his role greatly diminished, and he played just 11% of snaps in the Broncos’ most recent game. Mitchell, who saw just one pass-blocking rep in Week 9, could be headed for a similar change-of-pace fate.
However, do not let this scare you away from adding the electric rookie. For one, McLaughlin eventually lost work when Javonte Williams, who was injured during his breakout stretch of games, returned to full health. Mitchell’s breakout on Sunday came with both of the Ravens’ top two backs, neither of whom has the pedigree of Williams, healthy. More importantly, it almost doesn’t matter if the most likely outcome for Mitchell is just a handful of touches each game. With waivers in most leagues essentially bare of production at this stage of the season, it’s worth swinging for the fences; if he does claim the lead role in Baltimore’s backfield, Mitchell could be a legitimate league winner. Don’t bank on him ever being a consistent option, but add Mitchell where he’s available.
WR Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
Illustrating my point about the lack of options on waivers at this time of year, I had to jump down to Shakir, ranking 10h in EWI at 23%, to find the next player I’m interested in adding this week. While everyone is, with good reason, excited about Dalton Kincaid’s breakout with Dawson Knox sidelined, Shakir is also benefitting from Knox’s trip to the IR. When Knox was healthy, Shakir was essentially a non-factor in the Bills’ offense, averaging just an 18% route participation rate. But over the last two weeks, that number has skyrocketed to 73%, enough to have the sophomore on the fantasy radar in deep leagues.
Across Weeks 8 and 9, Shakir has seen 10 targets in his expanded role, catching every single one for 149 total yards. This still isn’t exactly great fantasy production, but it’s something. It’s also worth noting that Shakir’s 1.91 yards per route run is easily the second-best among Josh Allen’s weapons — still well behind Stefon Diggs’ elite 2.45, but good for 32nd among all qualified players and 26th among WRs. With that kind of per-route efficiency and a greatly expanded role over the last two weeks, Shakir is absolutely worth stashing in deeper PPR leagues.
Quick Hits: Players I’m Fading
- TE Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I know he just scored two touchdowns, but Otton had ZERO top-12 fantasy weeks before this one. He’s not worth adding in any traditional 1-TE formats and doesn’t deserve his 31% EWI.
- WR Noah Brown, Houston Texans: Brown is the highest-ranking WR with a 23% EWI coming off a huge performance in Week 9, but I’m not particularly interested. For one, he’s clearly behind both Nico Collins and Tank Dell, not to mention Dalton Schultz, in competition for targets. That’s fine when C.J. Stroud has a record-breaking day, but it will make him hard-pressed to be fantasy-relevant most weeks. Even worse, Robert Woods should be back soon, adding further competition to this suddenly deep WR room.
- QB Joshua Dobbs, Minnesota Vikings: This one is nowhere near as hard of a fade as the previous two. Dobbs has significant value in 2-QB or Superflex leagues, and he is even a serviceable backup in 1-QB. But he ranks just 18th in PPG, and replacement-level backups in traditional 1-QB leagues are essentially worthless. I wouldn’t have him as the second-best pickup on waivers this week, which his 35% EWI indicates.
