Finding The Top Week 12 Fantasy Football Pickups With Predictive Analytics: Zach Charbonnet, Isaiah Likely, Khalil Shakir

Let's take a look at fantasy football's most popular waiver wire options heading into Week 12! We can use the Predictive Analytics tool in the FantasySP Fantasy Assistant to help identify the top candidates. This tool predicts the Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) for every player, plus predicts their new rostership level following this week's waiver moves. Here are its current predictions for this week:

Top Predicted Week 12 Fantasy Football Adds

Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks

Unsurprisingly, the second-round rookie out of UCLA is far and away the top player in Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) this week, with a 54% mark projected to leave him rostered in every single league. I have been high on Charbonnet's fantasy prospects since he was drafted by the Seahawks in the second round, as I thought his skill set would lead to him eventually carving out a greater role than many expected. That did seem to be slowly happening, as the rookie saw a 50%+ snap share in each of Weeks 8, 9, and 10 ... but it hadn't led to any real fantasy production, as he still trailed behind Kenneth Walker in terms of touches and had zero weeks above 10 Half-PPR fantasy points. That all changes now, as Walker exited the Seahawks' Week 11 game early with an oblique injury, leaving Charbonnet the clear lead back for Seattle.

So, is it full steam ahead for Charbonnet to be a fantasy football league winner? Yes and no. On the one hand, Charbonnet was an absolute workhorse after Walker exited, playing 92% of snaps for the Seahawks and handling all but one of the rushing attempts. Given that he also has pass-catching ability out of the backfield, he is likely a must-start player as long as Walker remains out. On the other hand, the Seahawks are about to enter a brutal stretch of their schedule. Over the next four weeks, they face the 49ers (the seventh-worst fantasy matchup for running backs), the Cowboys (sixth-worst), the 49ers again, and the Eagles (the absolute worst matchup). You may not be able to get the best version of Charbonnet until Week 16 ... already the fantasy football semi-finals.

Don't get me wrong, Charbonnet is still the absolute best player to add this week (assuming Walker's injury is not minor). His likely workload and receiving chops should be enough to overcome these bad matchups with at least serviceable production. Just don't necessarily expect the truly elite RB1 numbers that the combination of his talent and that 92% snap share would imply. 

Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens

Right behind Charbonnet with a 38% EWI is another player set to benefit from injury, as Isaiah likely (see what I did there?) will be thrust into a larger role following Mark Andrews' injury last Thursday. As a rookie last year, Likely averaged 13.3 Half-PPR points on over eight targets a game in the three weeks where Andrews played less than 20% of snaps. We shouldn't expect quite that level of production from Likely this year, as new Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken's scheme is less reliant on tight ends than Greg Roman's was. There is also much more competition for targets on the Ravens' offense with new additions Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers. Even Andrews has seen his target share drop by nearly 10% in 2023 compared to 2022.

Still, Likely should be a fringe TE1 as long as Andrews remains out. While he did not catch his only target against the Bengals, he posted an 88% route participation rate, with only a third of his routes coming from in line. That's elite usage for a tight end and should be slightly better in games where Andrews is absent from the beginning. Combine that with Likely's size and burst, and you have a recipe for fantasy points. Don't expect him to be a perfect replacement for Andrews, but even 75% of Andrews' production is likely the best replacement you will find on the waiver wire.

Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills

Charbonnet and Likely are the clear headliners of this week's waiver wire. We have to jump down to 23% EWI (past FOUR defenses in a row) to find the next skill position player, Khalil Shakir. Shakir is coming off a 19-point outing against a tough Jets secondary, thanks largely to an 81-yard touchdown catch in which he showed off impressive speed.

Shakir has been an efficient receiver all season, as his 2.24 yards per route run ranks 17th in the NFL and just behind Stefon Diggs for first on the Bills. However, he was playing a very part-time role to start the season, with less than 40% of snaps in each of the Bills' first seven games. That changed following the injury to Dawson Knox, as Shakir has now upgraded to a bigger part-time role, posting a 70%+ route participation rate in each of the last four weeks (but still never more than 75%). In those four weeks, he is averaging 72 yards a game. Don't expect great consistency — he has eclipsed four targets just once and is still a part-time player — but Shakir's explosiveness makes him a flex option for the rest of the season.