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Best Fantasy Football Trades To Make Week 12
Sell High On
Despite being the last week before the deadline in many leagues, this is an ugly week for trades. The top player in ETI is , who isn't even rostered in every league and would be tough to make the centerpiece of a trade. Second on the list is Gus Edwards, with a 20% ETI. As crazy as it may sound, Edwards is actually the RB6 in Half-PPR for the season, as well as THE RB1 over the past five weeks.
However, I'm not convinced that Edwards will keep up his elite performances. His dominance over the past five weeks has been nearly entirely based on scoring an incredible nine goal-line touchdowns. On the season, a full 44% of his fantasy output has been rushing touchdowns, not one of which has come from further than seven yards out. And while I don't expect him to lose his job at the goal line, his current pace is obviously unsustainable. Where the Gus Bus has nine rushing TDs over the last five weeks, no other NFL team has more than eight.
Putting aside his unsustainable TD production, Edwards' role is trending in the wrong direction. Since 's Week 9 breakout, Edwards is averaging just a 39% mark in both snap percentage and rush share. That's not just bad for someone performing like a top-five RB, that's bad for a flex play. Things look even worse when you consider that our Rest of Season Matchup Tool has the Ravens with the absolute worst schedule for running backs in the league. You likely won't be able to get anyone to pay anywhere close to his production over the last few weeks, as even the most checked-out of managers will be able to predict some touchdown regression. But I think even selling at a discounted price will be worth it — this is the stop to get off the bus.
Buy Low On
While he is the Half-PPR WR11 on the season (WR14 in PPG), Thielen has been just the WR41 in points per game over the last four weeks. This may explain his 18% ETI, as fed-up managers are looking to move on from a player who once seemed like the steal of this year's draft season. However, I think we can expect a return to form going forward from the former UDFA, making him an ideal buy-low target heading into the fantasy playoffs.
The reason why I am predicting better days ahead for Thielen is simple: Frank Reich is back calling plays for the Panthers after handing the reigns to Offensive Coordinator Thomas Brown for three games. Those three games coincided perfectly with Thielen's worst outings of the season, as he averaged just 7.9 Half-PPR fantasy points on 8.7 targets. When Reich was in charge, Thielen saw more targets (10 per game), and they came further down the field (7.4 average depth of target compared to 4.8 under Brown). The result was 16.2 Half-PPR points per game. We saw this ring true in Reich's first game back in control, as Thielen had his best fantasy outing since Week 6 (the last game where Reich called plays) on eight targets and an 8.0 ADOT.
There's a chance he never returns to his early-season form of true WR1 numbers, but Thielen should at the very least be a solid WR2 as long as Reich continues calling the shots. He is even more valuable in Full PPR formats, although he will be harder to trade for there as his slump was not quite as pronounced. Regardless, Thielen should outperform his recent history in all formats, making him an excellent buy-low option.
Sell Low On
Technically, Addison ranks above Thielen in ETI at 19%. But I don't feel quite as confident in this recommendation as I do with Thielen, so I'm putting it last. However, I still believe the right move to make with the rookie playmaker is to see if you can trade him, even coming off three straight down weeks.
Again, my reasoning is fairly simple. For one, those three straight down weeks correspond directly with the three weeks that has been the quarterback for the Vikings. Dobbs has not been terrible, especially given the circumstances, and Addison has even maintained his target share under the Passtronaut. However, the Vikings' offense has dramatically changed its philosophy to adjust to the loss of their franchise quarterback. They have fallen from a 6% dropback over expected rate in Weeks 1-8 to dropping back exactly as often as expected in Weeks 9-11. And that's before accounting for Dobbs' scrambling ability: Where averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game, Dobbs is throwing the ball just 32 times per contest.
Especially with due to return either this week or in Week 14 following the Vikings' bye, Addison's volume is very much in question. The rookie has the big-play ability to make an impact even on fewer targets, so don't sell him for peanuts. But he certainly can't be expected to live up to his current WR11 ranking for the rest of the season. He is likely to become the third target, behind Jefferson and , on a team that is suddenly average in passing volume with a below-average quarterback. If you can get WR2 value for him, that's an absolute steal.
