Finding The Top Week 14 Fantasy Football Pickups With Predictive Analytics: Ezekiel Elliott, Alec Pierce, Roschon Johnson

Let's take a look at fantasy football's most popular waiver wire options heading into Week 14! We can use the Predictive Analytics tool in the FantasySP Fantasy Assistant to help identify the top candidates. This tool predicts the Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) for every player, plus predicts their new rostership level following this week's waiver moves. Here are its current predictions for this week:

We are still in the gross stages of late-season waivers, where a lot of the top of this list is defenses, kickers, and quarterbacks that are essentially only relevant in 2-QB leagues. We even have an IDP player coming in sixth on the list; congratulations to Jaquan Brisker. However, there are still some options worth picking up, both at the top of this list and some sneakier options further down. Let's get into it!

Top Predicted Week 14 Fantasy Football Adds

Ezekiel Eliott, New England Patriots

The only thing keeping Elliott from the top of this list is that he is already rostered in a good amount of leagues. His 41% EWI, which will take him to 97% rostered, is still good enough to land the former perennial first-round fantasy pick second on this list. He's the top non-defense, and that is exactly where he belongs. Rhamondre Stevenson is set to miss multiple weeks with an ankle injury, leaving Zeke essentially all alone in the Patriots' backfield.

This week, Elliott played 93% of the snaps following Stevenson's first-quarter injury. He saw 17 carries and five targets, good for a 21% target share for the game and an 85% rush share following Stevenson's departure. That dominance over a backfield is literally unparalleled across the league. Elliott's numbers following Stevenson's injury outpace the running back season leaders in snap share (Christian McCaffrey, 81%), rush share (Josh Jacobs, 77%), and target share (CMC again, 19%). The only other running back to even take a snap was converted WR Ty Montgomery ... who only played three snaps in the backfield and saw just one carry.

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So, Elliott's usage over the next few weeks may literally be the best in the league. Is he a league-winning player? Not quite, for one simple reason: Even 100% of the Patriots' backfield isn't as valuable as a more normal share of a more competent offense. New England has scored just 13 points combined over their last three games. Volume alone should propel Zeke to at least flex numbers down the stretch, but essentially non-existent touchdown upside paired with likely terrible game scripts means his ceiling is heavily capped, especially in Standard leagues. In PPR, he will benefit from a handful of extra points a game on checkdowns from Bailey Zappe/Mac Jones.

Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts

Pierce is the second non-QB/DST/K/IDP player in EWI this week at 22%. This makes sense coming off his best game of the season, in which he caught three of six targets for 100 yards and a touchdown. However, I have next to no interest in him in anything but very deep leagues. My reasoning is very simple: There is no evidence that this week's explosion was anything more than a one-off fluke. 

Pierce's usage all season, in terms of snaps and routes, has always been elite. He ranks 15th in the league in route participation rate at 91% while playing for the fastest-paced offense in the NFL. And he still hasn't produced. Prior to this week he had zero games above 50 yards, zero touchdowns, and zero top 45 Half-PPR finishes. I haven't seen any indication, whether statistical, coachspeak-based, or otherwise, that this week's anomaly was a result of any special attempt to get him more involved. Leave him on your waiver wires.

Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears

We have to scroll all the way down to 20th on the list to find Johnson at 17% EWI, but he is one of my favorite adds of the week. He is likely going under the radar because the Bears were on bye in Week 13, but Johnson had a sneaky breakout game in Chicago's last matchup. He played 74% of snaps, by far his season high, and saw 11 carries to Khalil Herbert's six. He also posted a very solid 51% route participation rate, catching all five of his targets for 40 yards through the air. 

There is a chance that Herbert reclaims the lead role, or D'Onta Foreman returns from his ankle injury to throw a wrench into the works. But the last time we saw this team play, this backfield was Johnson's. That alone makes him a must-add in all formats, but he is currently projected to finish at just 56% rostered even after waivers run. Make sure your league isn't one of the 44%.