Fantasy Football Studs Who Could Bust in 2024: Josh Allen, De'Von Achane, Davante Adams and More
These players have a high potential of not living up to their current ADP. That doesn't mean they'll be bad, just that they won't bring back the value you expected when you drafted them.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Allen is the reigning QB1 and has been incredible in fantasy for years now. However, this year he is once again being drafted as the QB1 overall early in the second round and there are reasons to believe he will not live up to that price tag.
Last season, we saw the team implement a new offensive system that leans much heavier on the run than in the past. The Bills also lost both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis and didn't do a whole lot to replace them. They are now relying on a rookie and a gadget guy as their primary wideouts.
Allen's ability to run, especially down near the goal line, gives him both a limitless ceiling and a high floor. With that said, his lack of weapons and the beating he's taken running the ball could lead to a drop-off this season. We still have locked him as a top-five quarterback but he could end up being closer to the QB5 than QB1. Still awesome, just not worth what you have to give up to draft him.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Everyone is looking at Richardson and seeing nothing but upside. He's being drafted as the QB6 ahead of guys like Joe Burrow, Jordan Love and Dak Prescott. Injuries are a major concern after we saw what happened to him last year as a rookie trying to run the ball on the pro level.
Even with that aside, there is another massive thing a lot of owners seem to be glossing over. He may not be any good. This is a guy who was viewed as a project draft pick with upside. With that upside comes with the possibility that he could be terrible - the kind of terrible that causes him to be benched in season.
Fantasy owners are doing a lot of hoping and projecting when they draft Richardson in the fourth round. This a league winner who could end up being close to unstartable at points in the season.
Running Backs
De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
We have been high on Achane since he was drafted and we still our. That doesn't mean we don't see all the red flags as well. The first issue is that he is just 5'9, 188 pounds, and is already coming off a rookie campaign in which he dealt with injuries. His size limits his potential volume and raises his risk of injury.
While his upside on a weekly basis may be as high as anyone in the league, he's still unlikely to lead this team in touches and could end up in a full-blown committee. Raheem Mostert should still be viewed as the RB1 as far as touches go, and the team also drafted rookie Jaylen Wright. Another back who is being ignored in Miami is second-year rusher Chris Brooks - don't be shocked if he ends up stealing more TDs than fantasy owners would prefer.
Achane's upside makes him worth the risk of drafting him late in round two as the RB9. Just understand the risks you get with him and perhaps consider pairing him with a few more safer backs who have volume locked in for them.
Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
Jacobs is the polar opposite of Achane. Most owners view him as guy who isn't what he quite used to be but will see a ton of touches. With all the touches he's had in his career, there is a chance he's a lot further from the player he once was than people realize.
The Packers moved on from the 29-year-old Aaron Jones who has played seven NFL seasons in favor of Jacobs. That may have been a mistake because the 26-year-old Jacobs already has more carries and overall touches than Jones and has never had a season with less than 250 touches. Those numbers exist even though he's only played one full season without missing any games.
He could be in the process of falling off a cliff coming off a down 2023 following a season where he saw 393 touches. On top of all that, the Packers could once again spread the ball amongst multiple running backs like they have for years. The team re-signed AJ Dillon and drafted MarShawn Lloyd, who is very talented. This year could be a disaster for Jacobs.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
Now 31 years old and turning 32 late in the season, Adams is coming off his worst season since 2017 and by far his least efficient. Some owners point to him starting to lose a step as he gets older and others blame terrible quarterback play for the drop-off.
Odds are both played a part and it's not a lock either gets better this season. He is another year older and Aidan O'Connell is battling with Gardner Minshew for the starting job in Vegas. That hasn't stopped fantasy owners from drafting Adams as the WR9 early in the second round.
The reason that he could be a bust is for the same reasons he slipped from the elite wideout tier last year. At this point in his career on that team, he may just be a WR2 now and finish around the WR16 spot. The volume he continued to see last season does give him hope of living up to his ADP though.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Collins has proven that he can be a great receiver and has a young ascending quarterback throwing him the ball. Drafting him as a low-end WR1 in the second round is still extremely risky. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Houston on an offense that wants to run the ball a lot.
They signed Joe Mixon to feed him and he also is a solid pass-catcher out of the backfield. Along with Mixon, the Texans traded for Stefon Diggs. No one would be shocked if Diggs served as the clear WR1 this season despite a drastic lapse in production late in 2023.
With Tank Dell also healthy, Collins volume is far from locked in. At best we would expect him to be inconsistent. Long-term Collins should be a stud, but this year could be a bit of step back for him when owners are projecting a leap forward.
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