ESPN Top-10 Players Likely to Decline: Nick Chubb, Aaron Rodgers and Mike Evans Among Those Likely to Fall

Over the past few weeks, ESPN has tasked their NFL contributors with ranking the top 10 players at every position (ESPN+ subscription needed). A lot of it is standard fare; Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey top their respective positions. Certain rankings show the struggle between age/production and youth/potential, though, and that’s what got me thinking.

A lot of these rankings are influenced by the 2023 season. The things we saw most recently are most prevalent in our thoughts and evaluations. It makes sense, then, that 2024 will have a big impact on the players who appear in the top 10 next year (this is an annual exercise at ESPN).

I chose the three most likely players at each fantasy football position to fall out of the top 10 next season. Age plays a big part, but the number of young, ascending players at each position also looms large. Sometimes guys don’t decline as much as they are forced out of “elite” status by better players.

Each player is listed with his ranking at the position as voted on by ESPN. I will give reasoning for each guy listed and some of the most likely names to replace them in 2025.

Quarterback

• No. 8 Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
• No. 9 Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
• No. 10 Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

It makes sense that the guys at the bottom of the list would be most likely to fall off, so that is part of this selection. These three all have different stories, though, which will affect how they are perceived at the end of the year.

Rodgers is an old guy returning from a major injury that cost him virtually all of last season. He is one of the most talented quarterbacks we have ever seen, but 40-year-olds don’t just bounce back from something like an Achilles tear. He has had plenty of time to recover; the Rodgers we see is likely the player he will be the rest of his career.

Goff just got a brand-new contract after taking his team about as close to the Super Bowl as they could get without making it. (I still can’t get over them blowing a 17-point lead at halftime of the NFC Championship; if this Lions team never makes the big game, that will be looked at as the most excruciating moment.)

Many see Goff as a product of the situation around him more than the reason his team wins. He’s a former No. 1 overall pick who has been to a Super Bowl. I get that he’s less talented than some others, but what else does Goff need to do other than win the big one? If Detroit regresses this season and Goff’s numbers follow suit, he will be viewed outside of the top 10.

Prescott is on the other side of the contract hill, currently slated to play out the last year of his deal, with the Cowboys unable to place the franchise tag on him in 2025. While no one can question Dak’s skill, his lack of playoff success keeps him outside the truly elite players. If Dallas has another disappointing end and Prescott hits the free agent market, his status won’t be as high, even if he is still better than average.

Who’s Next?

The articles all list honorable mentions, and that’s a good place to start. Brock Purdy, Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts all quarterback teams who have won big in the playoffs over the past few years. Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence are young players who have shown elite heights.

Then there are the rookies. This year’s quarterback draft class was seen as one of the best ever, with Caleb Williams expected to step in ready to compete for top-10 status. Anthony Richardson missed most of his rookie season, and he and Jayden Daniels have profiles similar to Lamar Jackson as elite athletes who can win on the ground and through the air; a big fantasy season would put them on watch as “the next Lamar.”

With so many good QBs, 2024 performances and related storylines will weigh heavily on next year’s top 10. There is sure to be a lot of shuffling, and those at the bottom of the list are most likely to get lost in that shuffle.

Running Back

• No. 3 Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
• No. 7 Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
• No. 9 Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

The Chubb situation has nothing to do with the player and everything to do with his knee. He suffered a gruesome injury early last season and may not be ready to return when the season starts. He is likely to need time to reacclimate and gain strength in that knee while probably never returning to full strength. In a league that moves fast, a poor showing in 2024 would give voters reason to look at him as a diminished player unworthy of a top 10 spot.

Jacobs led the league in rushing in 2022. It was one of his two good seasons in five tries. He signed a contract in Green Bay that looks big (four years, $48 million), but it is more like a one-year deal with an option, acting more team-friendly than it would seem. Jacobs missed four games last season and logged career lows in rushing yards, touchdowns and yards per carry.

His ’22 season surely earned him love in this year’s voting with the thought that a move to a better team in Green Bay could unlock another level. If he deals with injury again and doesn’t bounce back, though, he will fall off the board with younger backs likely to make jumps.

Henry shouldn’t be in the top 10. I don’t mean that the voting is wrong, but rather that his profile is that of a player who should have worn out his usefulness. Henry is a 30-year-old back with nearly 2,500 career touches on his body including playoffs. This player doesn’t have a job in 2024. Henry is different, though, and many are bullish on his chances of a big season next to Jackson.

With his age and workload, though, any fall in performance will be seen as Henry hitting the wall. If he misses time with injury and/or looks slow in a Baltimore offense that declines, he will not hold onto top-10 status in 2025.

Who’s Next?

Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) and James Cook (Bills) play on winning teams, always a good start. Pacheco posted good numbers in the playoffs (313 rushing yards and three touchdowns in the playoffs), and another productive year will push him into the top group.

One of the recent draft picks will probably pop as well. De'Von Achane showed record-breaking efficiency in a small sample last season, and a repeat of anything close to that performance over a full season would undoubtedly put him near the top of the league. While no back was drafted in the first round this year, Jonathon Brooks (Carolina) and Trey Benson (Arizona) are talented players with only middling veterans between them and a starter’s workload.

Wide Receiver

• No. 5 Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
• No. 8 Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• No. 9 Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills

The story is the same for all three players here: They’re getting old. The former two will play this season at 31 years old, while Diggs will hit that mark in late November. All three are much closer to the end, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they took major steps back.

Adams has seen regressing quarterback play from Rodgers to Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo and, finally, fourth-round rookie Aidan O'Connell. The Raiders will have a training camp battle between O'Connell and journeyman Gardner Minshew. Adams’ numbers took a big hit in 2023 compared to ’22, as he lost about 400 yards and six touchdowns despite three more catches. If that lack of explosiveness continues or even exacerbates, Adams may be seen as an aging contract more than a superstar receiver.

Evans returns to the same situation as last season, joining quarterback Baker Mayfield as the major components of the Tampa Bay offense. Many predicted Evans’ downfall last season, as he was moving from Tom Brady to Mayfield at QB. Instead, Evans had the third-most receptions and yards of his career and tied for the league lead with 13 receiving touchdowns. I am counting on another good season, but any drop in performance could start the storyline that Evans is too old to be a superstar.

Diggs saw a similar drop to Adams in yards per reception, each falling more than a yard short of their career average with an even bigger drop from 2022. Diggs gained more than 50 yards just three times in his last 10 games including the playoffs. A Buffalo team depleted at receiver traded him away.

In Houston, Diggs joins a budding young star at both quarterback (C.J. Stroud) and receiver (Nico Collins). With Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz also both present, it’s likely Diggs will see a drop in volume after receiving 100 targets in all but three seasons and never less than 84. A continued lack of explosiveness, especially if Collins outplays him, will drop Diggs from among the elite receivers.

Who’s Next?

Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Collins and Puka Nacua are just some of the names absent from the top 10. Top-flight rookie prospects Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze are all expected to hit the ground running. This is the most grueling position in football for which to choose a top 10.

The old men are likely to start fading out, as these guys all received votes:

• Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
• Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
• DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
• D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears
• Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
• Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco 49ers

Tight End

• No. 5 T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
• No. 9 Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
• No. 10 Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans

Again, the year-to-year shuffling causes two guys at the bottom of the list to fall among the most likely to be outside the top 10 next year. Engram and Schultz have their strengths and limitations, and 2024 will play a major role in how they are viewed next season.

Hockenson’s case is directly related to injury. He tore his right ACL and MCL in Week 16 and will probably miss time at the beginning of the season. Like with Chubb, missed time plus a diminished performance once he returns would put Hockenson in the back of our minds while more exciting young players jump forward.

Engram set the record for most receptions in a season by a tight end. It should say something that he’s only ranked ninth. He averaged just 8.4 yards per reception and scored four touchdowns on his 114 receptions. He had a similarly low yards per catch in 2021 but has otherwise never been below 10.4 YPR. Without the historic volume or a spike in touchdowns, Engram would be seen as a middling tight end unless he significantly increases his per-attempt numbers.

Schultz is 10th on the list; who else could more easily fall from the top 10? Schultz was good in his first year in Houston but didn’t do anything special: 59 receptions, 635 yards and five touchdowns in 15 games. We talked about the fight for targets that will take place in Houston, and Schultz could easily lose out to his more explosive teammates with the big-armed Stroud.

Who’s Next?

Jake Ferguson (Dallas), Trey McBride (Arizona), Pat Freiermuth (Pittsburgh) and Cole Kmet (Chicago) were all listed as honorable mentions. They could all easily replace Schultz at 10th. A few others fit with that group.

One name that stands out is Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts. Pitts was the fourth overall pick in 2021 and had 1,000 yards his rookie season, but injuries and poor quarterback play have stunted his production since. Though he has scored touchdowns at a better rate, Pitts had as many yards his rookie season as he has had in the two years since.

Kirk Cousins is the new quarterback in Atlanta, and that improvement coupled with a more pass-friendly offense has many projecting Pitts to bounce back in a big way. If he again fails to excel, though, Pitts will be looked at as more of a middling player than a potential star.