Fantasy Football Outlook for Second-Year Quarterbacks: Expectations for C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young and More

Checking in with the passers who entered the league in the 2023 draft and how their expectations compare to last season.

It’s easy to forget. Remember that thing you forgot that time? Yeah, me neither. Life moves quickly, and one passing thought is replaced by another without much effort. It works in relationships: new love makes you forget about the old flame.

In fantasy football, it means the new shiny objects make us forget about older/injured/displaced players of the past. No player can fall from thought faster than the second-year guy who was anonymous as a rookie.

Every rookie has the potential to be a part of the offense if things break right. Even fifth-round picks, like Puka Nacua, might be superstars. Then the games start, and we remember that it takes players time to adapt to the NFL, whether that means adding/dropping weight, learning a more complicated scheme, or just getting better with practice reps.

I am looking at the players drafted last year at each fantasy football position and focusing on their expectations this year versus their rookie season. Sometimes, that means a bigger role; others see their previously high hopes deflated after struggling during their first season.

Here I am talking about the quarterbacks, starting with two polar opposites at the top and not much after that. Players are listed in the order in which they were drafted and with the team that drafted them.

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

Young had one of the worst rookie seasons a quarterback has ever posted after being selected first overall. The players surrounding him were likely the biggest issue; it wasn’t a fluke this team finished last in the league.

And because they traded up to acquire Young at the top of the draft in 2023, Carolina didn’t have their top pick this year to add a blue-chip player to the roster. So, did the team find enough other ways to upgrade the roster around Young?

The faces will be different, if nothing else, and the talent is better. The team traded for Pittsburgh receiver Diontae Johnson to take over the WR1 spot then drafted South Carolina’s Xavier Legette with the last pick of the first round. They drafted running back Jonathon Brooks from Texas in the second round, a player some thought could have been a first rounder if he hadn’t suffered a torn ACL in November.

The offensive line received two major imports with the signings of guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis. ESPN ranked Carolina’s offensive line 23rd in pass block win rate and 30th in run block win rate last season, so the new players would seemingly have to upgrade the unit, though better play from young left tackle Ikem Ekwonu is a major part of the equation.

Even considering the upgrades the Panthers have made, Young doesn’t seem to be on the fantasy radar. He will likely have weeks in which he is streamer-worthy because of the matchup, but we just saw one of the worst quarterback performances in recent memory, and it will take more than moderately better talent to raise his play significantly.

Until he proves his status as an early draft pick, Young will remain a spot player in fantasy football.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Let’s keep this short and sweet: Stroud burst onto the scene as an immediate star, making Young’s struggles even more glaring. The talent in Houston was better, but Stroud also enhanced his skill guys and looked like a pro from Week 1.

Things got better over the offseason with trades for Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon, and there’s no reason to think Stroud can’t build on an Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign in 2023. He will be counted on as a weekly starter in fantasy football.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

I was all over Richardson as an immediate fantasy starter last season because of his running ability. I felt really good about that until he went down for the season after appearing in just four games. That’s going to be the story again in 2024: a tantalizing talent with uber athleticism who will always be at risk of injury because of the extra shots he will take as a running quarterback.

Richardson's development as a passer will dictate his real-life ceiling, but Lamar Jackson has shown that even a QB who isn’t a great passer can dominate fantasy football by being multi-talented (Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts are other related examples, though everyone’s story is different).

The surrounding talent is about the same as last season, with receiver Michael Pittman and running back Jonathan Taylor returning as top options, though Richardson never played with Taylor because the latter was recovering from injury and angling for a new contract before stepping on the field.

The offensive line has a few bright spots and places that could be upgraded; according to the same ESPN stats linked in the Young section, Indianapolis ranked 26th in pass block win rate and 11th in run block win rate. The offense is going to look much different with Richardson under center than it did when Gardner Minshew took over last year, and that could affect the success of the offensive line as well.

From a fantasy perspective, Richardson has a chance to be a top 10 player at the position because of his ability to carry the ball. Head coach Shane Steichen oversaw Hurts’ near-MVP season in 2022, and many thought he could implement the same style for Richardson. I will be looking at things the same way, though it’s impossible to ignore the injury possibility.

Will Levis, Tennessee Titans

Levis took over for an injured Ryan Tannehill at the end of October and started off by throwing four touchdowns and no interceptions in a 28-23 win over Atlanta. The good times mostly ended there; his 7.1 yards per attempt were average, but Levis completed less than 60% of his passes, lower than any other starting quarterback.

Outside of that first start and a six-attempt appearance the last week of the season, Levis started seven games, completed 58% of his passes with an average of 222 yards per game, and had four total touchdowns and four interceptions. Things weren’t much better for Levis than they were for Young in Carolina.

I thought his running ability might be able to save a few fantasy weeks, but it was pretty much non-existent. Levis gained 57 yards on 25 attempts with one touchdown (that includes kneel-downs). His pre-draft profile was that of a mobile QB who could get outside the pocket, scramble and take designed runs.

If that changes, Levis would have a little more value. Until we see him using his legs, though, his fantasy value is as low as any quarterback, relegating him to the very seldom streamer ranks.

Later Picks

Each of these guys was taken in the third round or later, and one at most could be in line for significant playing time barring injury.

• Hendon Hooker, Detroit Lions
• Jake Haener, New Orleans Saints
• Stetson Bennett, Los Angeles Rams
• Aidan O'Connell, Las Vegas Raiders
• Clayton Tune, Arizona Cardinals
• Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Cleveland Browns
• Sean Clifford, Green Bay Packers
• Jaren Hall, Minnesota Vikings
• Tanner McKee, Philadelphia Eagles
• Max Duggan, Los Angeles Chargers

O’Connell got the chance to play when the Raiders benched Jimmy Garoppolo to keep from triggering injury guarantees in his contract. O’Connell was below average, completing 62% of his passes at 6.5 yards per attempt. While 12 touchdowns to seven interceptions isn’t horrible, O’Connell wasn’t to the level of an NFL starter as a rookie.

Improvement could come if he beats out Gardner Minshew for the starting job, but a competitive Raiders team almost certainly would need Minshew to win that battle in camp and play at his highest level. If O’Connell starts Week 1, he won’t be anywhere near the fantasy radar.

No one else here is in line to even compete for a starting job, and something seriously went wrong if you see them in more than mop-up duty.

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