Fantasy Football Late-Round Lottery Ticket Draft Picks: Nick Chubb, T.J. Hockenson, Justin Fields and More

Have you ever played the lottery? I don’t think I have; not that I remember, at least. The lottery is a loser’s game. Everybody loses. Except the times when it hits big, and some lucky sucker wins more money than they’ve ever considered.

That’s why people play. You know you’re going to lose, but what if you don’t? Plenty of money has gone to the schools and into the pockets of politicians because we hold out hope that we could be lucky just that one time and win big.

There’s relatively little risk if you’re playing a small amount, like a dollar. Sure, that dollar could have gone to something else, but it would probably have just been wasted anyway.

Fantasy lottery tickets follow the same logic. You are spending a late-round pick in your draft or $1 in your auction for a player who is probably not going to have a good fantasy year but who also has a small chance of hitting it big.

In this case, winning big doesn’t mean winning a bunch of money (unless you’re playing for a major sum). Instead, it means getting early-round production from a negligible asset (that late pick or dollar).

I’m looking at some of the riskiest fantasy football lottery tickets, those players who won’t cost you big draft capital but who could strike it rich. These aren’t just the players I like best late in drafts; they are the ones who have a reason to expect that they could get back to that top level if not for a certain circumstance.

Sometimes that means injury, and other times it’s a change in scenery or teammates around him. Let’s go through these volatile lottery tickets divided into overall ranking tiers. The rankings listed with each player are from our FantasySP standard ranks.

Outside Top 50

No. 83 RB Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers

If entering the league healthy, Brooks would likely be a top-50 player. He was the first back selected in this year’s draft, 46th overall, and some projected that he would have been a first-round pick if not for a torn ACL suffered in November.

The latest reports have him out for at least the first few weeks of the season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he started the year on IR, which would keep him out of the first four games. When he returns, the team has reason to bring him along slowly. They probably aren’t going to be competitive, so the Panthers would benefit most from working Brooks into game shape and preparing him to carry the load next season.

Veterans Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders are there to handle the carries while he is out and help split the load once Brooks returns. Neither is more than a low-level flex player, but we see Brooks as a potential star. Yes, he is a more talented player; he’s also in the exact same situation and will be making his first appearances without any preseason action.

The upside is definitely there, but I’m not sold on the idea of Brooks turning into a weekly fantasy player this year. He will be someone to watch heading into 2025, and that might not come with much production this season.

No. 86 RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

Chubb is in a similar situation to Brooks except that the former is about eight years older than the rookie and coming back from a BRUTAL knee injury. He is more likely than Brooks to start the season on the IR, and that could stretch to half a season missed or more; the timetable is very unclear on Chubb.

With Brooks more likely to play earlier, it makes sense to think of him as the better fantasy option. I’m looking at it a different way, though. When Chubb comes back, there won’t be any high-level competition for carries (barring a big addition to the depth chart).

Cleveland is also likely to be in the playoff race. With an older back in a more urgent situation, the Browns are more likely to push Chubb upon his return and get him back to helping them win as soon as possible. Where it makes sense to baby Brooks, it makes just as much sense to get as much out of Chubb while they can.

If your league has an IR spot, you can draft Chubb in the ninth round, stash him away while he sits out, then hope for RB1 production when he gets back. That’s far from a guarantee, and this is a lottery ticket more likely to bust than boom. The allure is there, though, especially at the hardest fantasy position to fill.

Outside Top 100

No. 108 RB Gus Edwards, Los Angeles Chargers

No. 128 RB J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers

These two players came over from Baltimore in the offseason after being unable to stay healthy and/or produce consistently. Jim Harbaugh’s brother must have given his blessing, though, unless John was just pranking his brother.

There has been breakout potential around Dobbins for years, but it’s always been overshadowed by injuries. He played 15 games as a rookie before missing all of 2021 and appearing in just nine games over the past two seasons. A change of scenery can’t hurt; maybe LA will create better luck for him. Dobbins has averaged 5.8 yards per rush on 234 carries, an encouraging small sample.

Edwards has been on the field more often, missing eight games in 2022 but appearing in all 17 last season. Edwards has been productive as well, averaging 4.9 yards per rush and scoring 26 touchdowns over five seasons. He’s only handled about 140 carries per season, but Edwards has shown competence when in the backfield.

Neither player has done much in the passing game, so this is an argument of higher upside versus steadier production. Dobbins has the higher ceiling, but there’s no way to trust him to stay healthy. Edwards is a flex player who you can consider on the right weeks.

These aren’t guys I’m targeting, but there are worse options. I prefer Edwards and his steady production.

No. 112 TE T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

Hockenson tore an ACL and MCL in December and won’t be ready to start the season. He’s expected back by the middle of the year, though, and is in the same situation as Chubb. Hockenson can start the season in your IR spot and maybe produce big stats from a late-round selection.

Hockenson was TE4 in both standard and PPR leagues last season despite missing the last two games. He was fourth and second in 2022. Hockenson has produced like a top fantasy tight end the previous two seasons. (Those rankings are from Fantasy Pros.)

It’s hard to know what to expect upon his return. Players take time to play up to full speed after a major injury like that, and Kirk Cousins is being replaced by the combination of Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy, a downgrade. There’s a lot pointing toward a dip in performance for Hockenson.

I don’t like the idea of taking Hockenson this season. I’d rather use my IR spot on Chubb and get a high-potential player at a more important position. I do see the logic in the move for Hockenson, but it’s not one I prefer given that tight end is a deep position this season.

No. 148 QB Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

Watson was a star in both fantasy and real football at the beginning of his career with the Texans. Upon return from missing essentially two years with suspension, he has played two partial seasons with the Browns and not shown any of the high-level traits he flashed previously.

Watson’s QB fantasy finishes (again from Fantasy Pros):

• 2018: 4th
• 2019: 5th
• 2020: 5th

He was a legit fantasy star, creating value both throwing and running the ball. His completion percentage, yards per attempt, and TD:INT ratio are all much worse in his 12 games with Cleveland, but his rushing averages are similar to his old stats.

If Watson can stay healthy for a full season and regain just a little of his throwing touch, he would become a threat as a top 10 fantasy QB because of his running ability. He ran for over 400 yards in each season 2018-2020, topping out at 551 in 2018, and scored 15 total touchdowns in that time.

I’m not holding out hope for this. I believed in Watson’s bounce-back last year, and I won’t let him hurt me again. I understand anyone who is willing to bet on getting weekly quarterback production from a late-round pick, though.

Outside Top 150

No. 184 QB Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

Carolina didn’t give Young a chance last season. Chuba Hubbard was their top rusher, gaining twice as many yards as second back Miles Sanders (902 to 432). His top receiver was Adam Theilen, who surprised with a 100-catch, 1,000-yard season, but no one else topped 43 or 525.

Well, things look a lot better this year heading into the season. We already talked about the running back situation and Brooks’ uncertain debut. Carolina brought in two new receivers, trading for Diontae Johnson and drafting Xavier Legette 32nd overall. Young should have much better pass catchers on the field regularly.

Two expensive guards were added to the offensive line, with Robert Hunt getting record-setting money and Damien Lewis a hefty contract of his own. If nothing else, at least the names look better than they did last year.

A lottery ticket on Young means betting on his first-overall-pick talent level. Young was touted as a good runner coming out of college, so if he can add value with his legs and become a more competent passer with better players around him, Young could become a stream-worthy player or more.

I don’t like this pick and would much rather have Watson or the next guy on the list. There are worse things than betting on a former top pick, though.

No. 193 QB Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers

Fields’ argument is the same as Watson’s: He has the running skill to unexpectedly jump into the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks. Fields ran for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns in 2022, a year he finished as QB6 despite three missed games.

The only problem is that we don’t know if Fields will be starting. Russell Wilson is currently listed as the starter in Pittsburgh, though he missed the first preseason game with injury (he’s expected to play in the second game). Fields is the higher upside fantasy QB, but Wilson is a steadier real-life option and more likely to start the season under center.

Fields is a very unlikely lottery ticket, but there is breakout potential. If he starts the season on the bench but transitions to starter, he would be a sneaky pickup at that time for anyone struggling to find an option at QB.

No. 233 RB Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles

I’ll keep this one short: Gainwell is playing behind Saquon Barkley in Philadelphia. The Eagles like to rotate backs, so Gainwell will probably get on the field a little, and Barkley has had trouble staying healthy at times. Gainwell won’t have fantasy value most weeks, but if Barkley were to miss an extended stretch, Gainwell would have a chance to step into a featured role in a high-level running game.

Honorable Mention: Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions

Detroit traded up to the 12th pick in 2022 to grab Williams, a college star projected as a WR1 at the NFL level. He missed most of his rookie season with an injury then began last year suspended, eventually playing in 12 games and averaging just two receptions per game.

Williams hasn’t had a chance to experience a normal preseason and start to the season; oh, and he’s also just 23 years old and entering his third season. Let’s give him a minute before expecting the next Julio Jones.

An explosive option in a great offense, I’m looking for a big jump forward from Williams this year, and he’s probably my favorite last-pick lottery ticket.