Bold Fantasy Football Predictions for the AFC and NFC East: How can Dalton Kincaid, Ezekiel Elliott, Jayden Daniels and Other Surprise Us?

The word bold means different things in different settings. It can refer to bold text, or it can relate to sound and volume. In this case, though, we’re talking about statements that predict events that seem unlikely or best-case-scenario outcomes.

Now, none of this is actually bold relative to real life. A bold move is something like quitting your job to start your own business. Even if everything I say below is wrong, there will be no real consequence; it’s only as bold as one can be in the scope of analyzing fantasy football.

This is more like a list of things that could happen if everything breaks right (or wrong). Some predictions will go against popular thinking, and others will be more exaggerated forms of what is expected. And nothing is outrageous; I’m not predicting that Ezekiel Elliott will be the fantasy MVP.

This is more about highlighting some of the strong feelings I have about teams and/or individual players heading into 2024. Here is one bold prediction for each team in the AFC East and NFC East.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills: Dalton Kincaid will be a top-three fantasy tight end

I’m using “Kansas City Chiefs logic” with this one, which is a very precarious thing to do; no one else has Patrick Mahomes or Travis Kelce. More than the specifics, though, I’m thinking in terms of how the ball will be distributed in the passing game.

Kansas City hasn’t had a good group of receivers since Tyreek Hill left town, and they might have been the worst in the league last year. They still won the Super Bowl both because Mahomes is just that good and because Kelce is a true No. 1 receiver. Rather than trying to replace Hill (impossible), Mahomes has leaned on his tight end as his top target while the receivers have worked more as a supporting cast.

Buffalo let Gabe Davis leave in free agency then traded Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. They signed multiple veterans, including Curtis Samuel, but none of those players is expected to make the impact of a WR1. While Keon Coleman, drafted in the early second round, has the tools to become a good receiver, it’s always dangerous to rely on a rookie at any position to deliver at a high level.

That leaves Kincaid to play the Kelce role and become the primary target for Josh Allen in the passing game. Allen impacts the game with his legs as much as his arm sometimes, and the running game could be more of a focus, but Allen is going to need someone to step up in crunch time, and the first-round tight end might be the most likely option on the roster.

With that role comes more targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns. It also bring more defensive attention, which could be dangerous against good defenses, but Kincaid has a lot of upside heading into this season.

Miami Dolphins: Raheem Mostert will out-score De'Von Achane in standard scoring leagues

Mostert was second among backs in standard scoring and fifth in PPR last season despite missing two games. He led the league with 18 rushing touchdowns while gaining nearly 1,200 total yards.

Mostert probably isn’t going to repeat that performance. It was by far his best season, and Mostert is 32 years old, more likely to decline than continue a dominant run. He’s also likely to play a similar role to last season, leading the backfield and handling short yardage and goal line carries.

Achane did more in the passing game last season, even if he wasn’t a top-level receiver. Achane averaged about 2.5 receptions per game and 3.4 targets. Mostert was at 1.7 receptions and 2.1 targets. Mostert has never made an impact as a receiver, so it’s likely Achane’s role expands in that facet rather than the veteran.

Achane might be the better PPR player, but he also must stay on the field. There were questions about his durability coming into the league given his slight frame (5’9, 188 pounds). That likely limits his workload and makes explosive plays necessary to be a top fantasy back. If those explosive plays don’t come as often, Achane will look like a much different player.

With Mostert leading the way on a high-scoring offense, I view him as more of a top-20 lock among backs while many see him as a flex player. He’ll likely be a lesser fantasy player than in 2023, but Mostert will be in position to succeed in a good offense.

New England Patriots: No Patriot will finish among the top 20 at his position

This isn’t saying much at wide receiver, where the first New England guy is being taken outside the top 50 receivers. I don’t see a realistic situation in which any WR on this team gets into the top 20 unless Drake Maye takes over from Week 1 and shows his blue-chip talent. Maybe he will make an immediate connection with rookie Ja'Lynn Polk, but more likely no Patriots receiver will make a major impact this season.

Speaking of the quarterbacks, Maye was taken third overall, giving hope that he can be this season’s C.J. Stroud and break out as a rookie. No one is grasping the starting job, though, as Maye and veteran Jacoby Brissett are still in a battle with poor preseason results.

It’s likely that both quarterbacks will see time during the season, maybe with Brissett starting the year and Maye taking over at some point. With split time, neither player would get the chance to put up top-20 fantasy stats.

Hunter Henry is a good tight end who battled injuries earlier in his career but has been on the field more often with the Patriots. Henry is a stable player, but the unstable quarterback situation could cause inconsistency. A few missed games (like when he played 14 last year) would almost surely put him outside the TE2 group.

The running back situation could turn into a time-share after Antonio Gibson was added in the offseason to join incumbent Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson seems likely to lead the way, but he missed five games both in his rookie season and last year, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him on the sidelines for a few games again this year.

If Gibson plays the backup and pass catching roles while leading the backfield when Stevenson misses time, it will dilute both players’ season totals, keeping them both out of the top fantasy scorers. Unless a major injury puts one guy into a workhorse role, neither Stevenson nor Gibson seems to have a high ceiling.

New York Jets: Breece Hall will reach 2,000 total yards and 15 touchdowns

Playing with Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle as his quarterbacks last year, Hall racked up 994 rushing yards and 591 receiving yards while scoring nine times. The arrival of Aaron Rodgers is expected to boost everyone’s performance on offense. We heard that last year as well, but now we have another year of anticipation behind it.

The thought process behind Hall is that he will get more opportunities with better talent around him, opening more space in the running game and catching short passes. Left tackle Tyron Smith, right tackle Morgan Moses and guard John Simpson have been imported as new starters on the offensive line, and first-round pick Olu Fashanu will either play as a swing tackle or maybe start at the other guard spot.

Rodgers will greatly outplay last year’s triumvirate of below-average quarterbacks if he’s healthy, and backup Tyrod Taylor will raise the floor if forced into work. Garrett Wilson is a true WR1, and Mike Williams greatly upgrades the pass catching behind Wilson.

Many of those players have previous injury history, so New York’s success depends on a lot going right. If just one or two of those guys gets hurt, they might be able to withstand it. A majority of that group going down, though, would bring the team back to 2023 levels, especially if Rodgers misses time again.

Hall seems like the safest player of the bunch. He missed most of his rookie season with an injury but played all 17 last year. His 299 touches from 2023 could increase, which would put him near the top of the league in volume.

A successful Jets offense would likely score a lot, giving Hall the chance to get into the end zone, and he would get the ball late in games with the team theoretically holding leads. A healthy, productive Hall could be the best player in fantasy football.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliott will finish among the top 10 running backs in rushing touchdowns

In each of the past five years, the 10th RB has had either eight or nine rushing touchdowns. Elliott topped that number in three of his last four seasons with the Cowboys; we’ll ignore his three-TD season in last year’s hiatus to New England.

While it’s easy to see Elliott as an aging back coming off his worst season, he also was on one of the worst teams in the league with a below-average offensive line. He is now back on a team that has put tons of resources toward the line over the last decade and will almost surely have a quality unit in front of him.

While he might not be able to carry the ball 250+ times like in his prime, Elliott is still in line to handle short yardage and goal line carries. He caught 51 passes last year and can still do well in pass protection, so he will be on the field.

It’s not about efficiency; Elliott will likely get plenty of volume on a team that sports a successful offense. He has also played 15 or more games in all but one season, showing great health for his position.

He might not be a weekly fantasy starter, but it won’t be a surprise if Elliott is sniffing the top 20 at the end of the season. Tony Pollard was in the top 20 in both standard and PPR last year, and we looked at it as something of a disappointment; Elliott is in position to produce in 2024.

Philadelphia Eagles: Saquon Barkley will finish the season as RB1

In every season in which Jalen Hurts has played (including 2020, when he split time with Carson Wentz), the Eagles have either had a 1,000-yard rusher or a guy who was on pace for 1,000 but didn’t play enough games (both times it was Miles Sanders: he played 12 games in both 2019 and 2020 and would have reached 1,000 yards in 16 games at his per-game numbers).

When Sanders left for Carolina last season, he lost the benefits of Philly’s dominant run game and looked like a below-average back. He averaged a career low 3.3 yards per carry after never being below 4.6 previously. Sanders was replaced by Chuba Hubbard after suffering an injury then relegated to backup duty.

D'Andre Swift spent one season in Philadelphia after beginning his career with the Lions. He never gained more than 617 rushing yards in any season with Detroit. Working as the top back with the Eagles last season, he racked up 1,049 rushing yards before leaving for a bigger contract with the Bears.

Middling running backs were acting like top fantasy options in Philly; Barkley was the second overall pick in 2018 and has been a star when on the field. In a great running game, Barkley is positioned to turn in one of his most productive seasons.

Health is the big issue: Barkley has missed at least three games in four of his six seasons, including virtually the whole 2020 season. Even if he does miss a game or two, he will still perform when on the field, and I have a feeling that Barkley will be more motivated to be in the lineup on a team with Super Bowl aspirations.

Shifting on the offensive line due to the retirement of Jason Kelce does bring a little hesitancy, but I still believe in the Eagles as a top-flight run unit.

New York Giants: No Giant will finish the season among the top 20 at his position

I usually don’t like to double up on the same prediction, but this is a unique situation in which the Patriots and Giants are both barren of top-level talent. Barkley left town, and maybe the only fantasy player with any real upside is rookie receiver Malik Nabers.

The problem is the guy throwing him the ball, though. Daniel Jones returns from a major knee injury, and he did Daniel Jones things in his first preseason action. The most likely outcome this season is that Jones struggles again, misses a few games with injury, and is eventually shut down to avoid triggering injury guarantees in his contract.

That would leave Drew Lock under center, and the Giants would only be one hit away from playing their third-string quarterback. Nabers is uber-talented, but he might not be able to overcome the ineptitude of the Giants in Year 1.

Tight end is a wasteland in the fantasy scope. Devin Singletary was signed to replace Barkley as the starting running back. He has never hit 900 rushing yards or 300 receiving yards, though, showing more middling upside.

If Jones stays healthy and shows the running ability he had before his injury, he will finish among the top 20 quarterbacks (he was QB9 in 2022). I am betting on something closer to the situation laid out above, though, and Jones not playing enough games to hit that level.

Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels will finish as QB8 or better

This has been one of my favorite picks of the preseason. I was going to say top 10, but that wasn’t bold enough; top five felt a little too ambitious. Let’s go with a top-eight finish among his position for the rookie passer.

More than his passing, though, I’m interested in Daniels’ running. Fantasy points add up faster for quarterbacks when they run rather than pass, and running quarterbacks have better floors and ceilings than those QBs who use their legs more seldom. It’s not an accident that Buffalo’s Allen has been a top two fantasy quarterback in each of the past four seasons.

Daniels was great in his last two seasons at LSU, completing over 70% of his passes for 6,725 yards with 57 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. He added 2,019 yards and 21 touchdowns on the ground, helping propel him to the Heisman Trophy last season.

While he won’t dominate the NFL like that, everything is going to be run through Daniels, both through the air and (sometimes) on the ground. He will surely scramble plenty, and there will be designed runs for Daniels as well.

Anthony Richardson is commonly listed as QB8, something I agree with. Daniels has a chance to put up numbers as good as or better than Richardson, but the rookie is being drafted as something like QB15.