What Does Brandon Aiyuk's New Contract Mean for Brock Purdy's Future?
Could San Francisco do the unthinkable and let their young quarterback go after his contract is up, trading him in for a cheaper model?
The San Francisco 49ers just signed Brandon Aiyuk to an extension with reported numbers of four years and $120 million. NFL contracts aren’t everything they seem; a portion of the total is usually unguaranteed, and salary can be moved between seasons to manipulate cap hits. Many of the biggest contracts are restructured after a few years, making the original deal more of a stand-in than true representation.
The numbers matter to some, though: Ja'Marr Chase said he wants a contract that tops Justin Jefferson by one cent. They matter to the salary cap, also, where one big signing creates ripples that affect the rest of the team. In San Francisco’s case, those ripples might extend to the sport’s most important position.
Brock Purdy is making close to $2 million combined over the next two seasons; his next contract is likely to average $55+ million per year. That’s $54 million per year LESS that they have to spend on the rest of the roster. Before we go any further, we need to clarify a few things.
NFL contracts don’t count against the cap in a consistent way: four years for $100 million doesn’t mean there will be a $25 million cap hit each season. For the purpose of this article, though, I am going to talk about numbers in very simple terms. It would take way too long to break down every contract on San Fran’s roster, so I am going to treat “four years for $100 million” as a $25 million per year cap number. I know it’s wrong, but I’m trying to make this simple; it's about the idea rather than the specifics.
This article from ESPN gives details about Aiyuk’s signing, and there’s one thing I want to highlight: San Francisco has eight players averaging at least $15 million per year, the most in the league. They’re all star players, so it’s hard to argue the strategy
- Nick Bosa $34 million per year
- Brandon Aiyuk $30 million
- Deebo Samuel Sr. $24 million
- Trent Williams $23 million
- Javon Hargrave $21 million
- Fred Warner $19 million
- Christian McCaffrey $19 million
- George Kittle $15 million
I did a little rounding on a few of those numbers, but we are going to use those totals for the purpose of this exercise. The salary cap this year is $255.4 million. The eight players listed above add up to $185 million dollars. Add in Purdy’s $1 million contract, and those nine represent 72.8% of the salary cap.
If Purdy’s cap hit was instead $55 million, those players would add up to 94% of the cap. Instead of having an average of $1.58 million to spend on the other 44 players on the roster, they would have just $350,000 per player available.
Again, this is an entirely over-simplified examination of San Francisco’s situation, but it’s meant to represent the financial difference between having a quarterback making big money and one earning relative peanuts. These high-priced contracts add up fast, and the biggest salary by over 60% obviously makes the biggest impact.
The first situation above (those players accounting for about 73% of the cap) would be hard to navigate. The second is untenable. No team can keep everyone; paying the quarterback means at least two other players might have to go. Bosa and Hargrave add up to $55 million per year, the number I’m estimating for Purdy. Would you rather have two impact defensive linemen or the quarterback chosen with the last pick in the 2022 draft?
I say all this while really liking Purdy. He has operated splendidly in Kyle Shanahan’s offense and led the best offense in football last year. He might have been the MVP if he didn’t have his worst game of the season against Lamar Jackson. Purdy is a big part of the reason they went to the Super Bowl last season and the NFC Championship Game the year before. It’s also undeniable that he is surrounded by arguably the best collection of talent in the league.
The list above includes maybe the best pass rusher, left tackle, middle linebacker and running back in the league along with a top-five tight end and maybe two top-20 receivers. As good as Purdy has been, I can’t say that he’s more important to the team than that entire list of $15 million players. Rather than build around a quarterback, could this franchise regularly succeed by building the best roster possible and inserting a QB on a cheap contract?
Finding a Quarterback
The 49ers can’t just use a seventh-round pick on a quarterback every four years and find high-level play. Even if Shanahan is the best offensive coach we’ve ever seen, it takes skilled players to excel in the NFL. With great skill players, offensive linemen and defenders, though, the level of quarterback who could succeed with the team expands.
Let’s use the Patriots as an example: Purdy wouldn’t be playing at an MVP level on the current New England team, and that team wouldn’t be going to the playoffs with Purdy. (Put a big “probably” disclaimer on all these statements: we never know for sure what could happen.)
At the same time, not every quarterback would perform even as an average player under center for Shanahan. There’s still a level of competence necessary to win even with a Pro Bowl team; this is quarterback in the NFL we’re talking about. With excellent talent across the roster, though, a veteran on a cheap contract or a mid-round pick would have a better chance of succeeding than the average quarterback in the average situation.
If they feel confident in being able to find another passer, San Francisco could take a consolation prize home when parting with Purdy...
Capitalizing on Success
Not only is a player like Purdy highly valuable while on his rookie contract, but the 49ers wouldn’t just let him walk in free agency. The team would likely place the franchise tag on Purdy after the 2025 season then look to trade him.
While teams wouldn’t treat Purdy like Patrick Mahomes on the trade market, someone would surely give up three first round picks or equivalent value through a combination of picks and players. Adding two first rounders and pass rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux from the Giants would be a nice coup for the former final pick of the draft.
The value of not paying their quarterback a major sum is increased by getting assets in return. Even if San Fran would eventually extend Thibodeaux, that contract would be around half of what Purdy will make.
Cycling through young quarterbacks and trading them for multiple first rounders isn’t a sustainable model, but this would be a rare opportunity for the team to stick to a plan while reaping great rewards.
Will the 49ers Move on from Purdy?
Probably not. If he continues a similar level of play, it would be unprecedented for a team to get rid of a young player with so much success. The most likely outcome is that they sign Purdy to a big contract, plays gymnastics with the salary cap, and try to give this group as many chances as possible to win the Super Bowl.
The concept is intriguing, especially as Shanahan has gone to the big game with both Jimmy Garoppolo and Purdy under center. Again, it’s not like any QB could succeed just because Shanahan is the coach. He has shown the ability to win with unheralded quarterbacks, though, and a big part of that is talent across the roster.
Forgoing the huge payment that goes to a franchise quarterback would allow the team to still play some of the cap games but add multiple high-level players to the roster at the same time. It would be taking advantage of something no other team has: an offensive system that can thrive with a mediocre quarterback.
There’s a lot of speculation here. Things change fast, and this team might look like a black hole in three years. San Francisco has a repeatable model, though, if they spend resources finding valuable, cheap quarterbacks.
Final Thoughts
I really want a team to go with the “zero quarterback” method just to see how it goes. That doesn’t literally mean no quarterbacks, but it means looking for value at the most expensive position while using more money to have a high-level roster at most other spots. The 49ers are set up as well as any team to try that strategy given their collection of high-priced talent.
A general manager would be putting his job on the line by getting rid of a successful quarterback entering his prime, so any failure would put him on the hot seat. While intriguing and possibly a successful strategy, most teams will keep searching for a great quarterback who makes up for shortcomings everywhere else rather than the other way around.
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