Best Fantasy Football Quarterback Picks by Tier: Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels and More

While it’s the most important position in all of team sports, quarterback is something of a secondary thought in fantasy football. QBs score the most fantasy points, but that also makes it the most easily replaceable position.

Running back and wide receiver are more important to focus on in fantasy because less players score at high levels. You also have to find at least two backs and two receivers to play each week but only one quarterback (in most cases). Starting-level fantasy play is easier to find at quarterback than any other offensive position.

That doesn’t stop us from trying to find the best of the best, though. Through the first 14 weeks of last season (the typical fantasy regular season), QB1 Josh Allen scored 321.3 points and QB12 Tua Tagovailoa 229.4. In a 12-team league, the top scoring quarterback scored over 6.5 more fantasy points than the bottom starter.

It’s obviously nice to have that extra bump, but value is about finding the most fantasy points at the lowest draft or auction cost. Not every owner can draft Allen, but everyone has the opportunity to create the same points-per-cost ratio by finding similar value later in the draft.

Below, I have separated quarterbacks into tiers using our FantasySP PPR rankings. Each player is listed with his overall ranking among all players. I highlighted my favorite guy in each tier and where in the draft you might get them based on our rankings.

Tier 1: The Elite

• No. 25 Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
• No. 31 Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
• No. 35 Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
• No. 44 Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Jackson is rated a little lower by our numbers but is with this group in most formats, so I’ll put him in the top tier; he belongs.

Mahomes is the odd man out here. These were the top four drafted quarterbacks in 2023; they all finished in the top four in scoring except Mahomes, who was QB8. While the other three use their legs frequently, Mahomes doesn’t run as much, giving him a lower floor each week.

A simple example I’ve used a few times: If a quarterback throws for 175 yards and a touchdown, that’s equivalent to 11 fantasy points. Those same stats with 30 rushing yards each week and a touchdown every three weeks comes out to 16 fantasy points. It might not seem like a big deal once, but over 14 weeks, those quarterbacks would have 154 and 224 points, equivalent to the difference between QB13 Jared Goff and QB22 Kirk Cousins in that time-frame last season.

Regular rushing work increases a quarterback’s floor and ceiling, and it’s often the greatest fantasy hack; you’ll read a lot more about running quarterbacks below. Allen is my favorite here because of recent history. His finishes the last five years (according to FantasyPros):

• 2023: QB1
• 2022: QB2
• 2021: QB1
• 2020: QB1
• 2019: QB6

I don’t support the strategy of drafting a quarterback early, but if you’re going to do it, Allen is the steadiest thing in fantasy football. You’ll have to grab him in the third or fourth round, near the same time as the other three.

Tier 2: Bulk of the Starters

• No. 50 C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
• No. 55 Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
• No. 64 Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
• No. 74 Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
• No. 76 Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
• No. 77 Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

Most owners will get their starter in this tier, usually somewhere between the sixth and eighth round (though someone always reaches once quarterbacks start going off the board). I can’t argue that every player here has fantasy value, but two guys stand out to me.

Richardson and Murray are the running quarterbacks, fitting my type. Richardson only appeared in four games before having season-ending shoulder surgery, but the upside was clear in his short time. He finished as QB4 in Week 1 and QB2 in Week 4, hitting 200 passing yards, 40 rushing yards and at least one score both through the air and on the ground in each game.

I see that as more of a normal week for Richardson and not an outlier. Nothing there is unsustainable, though he won’t run in a touchdown every week. Richardson could easily be a top-five fantasy quarterback from the beginning of the year just by doing his normal thing with no huge games.

I like Murray better for a few reasons: He’s available about two rounds later than Richardson, has a longer track record of success, and probably has the best offensive weapon between the two teams in Marvin Harrison Jr. Grabbing Murray in the eighth round rather than Richardson in the fifth or sixth is an easy call for me.

Murray was regularly drafted as a top-five fantasy QB until he suffered a major knee injury in 2022. He was rightly either undrafted or taken late last year because he was set to miss half the season, but Murray returned and showed flashes of his regular self. It’s natural to expect some decline after a major injury, but I project Murray maintaining most of his production based on what we saw in 2023.

Murray probably won’t put up Allen numbers, but he can match Richardson while being drafted two rounds later and maybe get close to the level of Hurts and/or Jackson if he returns to his former level of play. This is a major upside pick.

Tier 3: Borderline Starters and Upside

• No. 101 Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
• No. 103 Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
• No. 106 Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
• No. 107 Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphis
• No. 109 Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

We’re in fantasy backup territory for the most part, with 10 guys off the board before we get to this tier. You won’t be surprised by this point to know that Daniels is my favorite because he’s the only real runner. You might be surprised, though, to find out that Daniels is my favorite fantasy QB pick this season (unless you’ve read what I’ve written earlier in the offseason).

The other guys here all have a chance to be top-10 fantasy quarterbacks; Daniels has the ceiling of a top-five guy. Everything is going to go through him, including the running game at times. Everyone gets good reports in the preseason, but it seems like  every report out of Commanders' camp is glowing.

I just said Murray could contend with guys like Hurts and Jackson, and I feel the same way about Daniels, who isn’t being drafted until the 10th round or later. Daniels is a major upside play who also includes risk; there are a lot of similarities to Richardson last season when he shined but was injured early in the season.

Tier 4: Backups and Streamers

• No. 124 Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
• No. 126 Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
• No. 134 Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
• No. 138 Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
• No. 143 Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
• No. 155 Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
• No. 156 Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The guys here are clear backups, and some of them won’t be drafted in many leagues. The older veterans (Rodgers, Cousins and Stafford) will be good streamers some weeks. Same with Mayfield, who finished as QB10 last season and has most of the same pieces back with maybe an upgraded offensive line.

Lawrence and Herbert are both young, projected stars who haven’t quite hit that next level in their first handful of years. There’s plenty of time for both to write their stories, but 2024 seems like a possible step backward given the talent around them and status of their teams. Either Lawrence or Herbert could finish in the top 10, and we would look back and think, “How we could be so foolish to doubt them?” They will both be fantasy options many weeks.

Watson is my best bet if I had to choose from this group (which I don’t in real drafts) because of his previous heights as a top-five fantasy QB. From 2018-2020, Watson was QB4, QB5 and QB5; he was consistently elite.

Then it hit the fan. Watson missed close to two years after his massage parlor improprieties, and he’s been a shell of his former self since his return. Watson played just 12 games the last two years with the Browns, and his passing stats fell off severely.

Watson averaged 30 rushing yards per game during his ’18-’20 stretch. He has averaged 26.4 with Cleveland. He has scored just two touchdowns on the ground after 15 in that three-year span, but the production is there. If Watson were able to find just some of the form that made him a superstar, he could be a successful fantasy quarterback as long as his running holds up.