Finding the Top Week 2 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Isaiah Likely, Demarcus Robinson, Tank Bigsby

Ted takes a look at this week's hottest waiver adds, including Isaiah Likely, Demarcus Robinson and Tank Bigsby.

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

For a post-Week 1 waiver run, this level of interest is actually shockingly low. Isaiah Likely is the only player above 50%, with no other position player even cracking 35%. The second position player in EWI is 28-year-old journeyman Allen Lazard, which is how you know there isn't much out there. With that said, there's still tons to learn from this data, so let's take a look at some of this week's top predicted adds:

Top Predicted Week 2 Fantasy Football Adds

Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens (99% EWI)

With a 99% EWI miles ahead of any other player, Likely is going to be the hardest player to get on waivers this week. If you want him in a FAAB league, you'll have to pay up. For my part, I don't think Likely is worth the price he is going to go for. Even in his huge Week 1 outing, Likely still posted just a 60.8% route participation rate. It's very hard to maintain consistent fantasy production if you're missing out on close to half of your team's available routes. 

Don't get me wrong, Likely is absolutely worth adding, and I would spend the first wavier on him in leagues with weekly resetting waiver orders. But there's a real chance that, barring an injury to Mark Andrews (who still ran five more routes and played six more snaps than Likely in Week 1), this was Likely's best outing of the season. 

Los Angeles Chargers Defense (41% EWI)

The Chargers are second in EWI, so they will clearly be the most popular defensive streaming option in Week 2 as they match up against the still-terrible Panthers offense. The Chargers are undoubtedly a top defense this week, but they may be difficult to land. If you're looking for more under-the-radar options, check out my Week 2 Fantasy Football Defense Streaming Breakdown.

Allen Lazard, New York Jets (34% EWI)

Following his big performance on Monday Night Football, with six catches on nine targets for 86 yards and two TDs, Lazard is the hottest WR waiver pickup of the week. On some level, this makes sense. Lazard is now the WR2 on an offense that should be much improved with his old friend Aaron Rodgers under center. But I don't buy it. We saw Lazard as Rodgers' WR1 in Green Bay, and he was never a consistent fantasy option. Playing alongside a target hog in Garrett Wilson, he's not likely to have many more big games. 

Alexander Mattison, Las Vegas Radiers (31% EWI)

Mattison's EWI should be higher, even if he isn't an exciting player. His 31% EWI leaves his projected post-waiver rostership at just 44%, meaning he will be available in over half of leagues even after waivers run. But if there's one thing that's true in fantasy football, it's that every team's lead running back should be rostered, and Mattison led the Raiders' backfield in Week 1.

The former Viking posted a 60% snap share and finished with 14.2 Half-PPR points on five carries and six targets. Zamir White did finish with more carries, but Mattison was the clear preferred passing-down back. That role may be enough for him to manage flex value on a Raiders team that should be trailing often, and he is definitely worth adding to see how things shake out.

Colby Parkinson, Los Angeles Rams (28% EWI)

Parkinson posted the second-highest route participation rate of any TE in Week 1 at 84.3%. He turned that role into four catches on five targets for 47 yards. On a Rams offense that is suddenly lacking for receiving options with Puka Nacua at tight end, he is an intriguing pickup. Parkinson isn't necessarily a special player with an elite ceiling, but he may be able to provide backend TE1 numbers a la Tyler Higbee as long as his usage stays elite.

Demarcus Robinson, Los Angeles Rams (28% EWI)

Our second straight Ram with a 28% EWI, I would actually prioritize Robinson over Parkinson. Although Parkinson plays a shallower position at tight end, Robinson profiles more as a player who can provide consistent weekly scoring. He actually broke out near the end of last year, averaging 13.3 Half-PPR points over his final five regular season games, and that was with both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua healthy. Now, with Nacua on IR, Robinson should find himself in weekly flex conversations as long as Matthew Stafford keeps cooking.

Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars (28% EWI)

I already broke down my thoughts on Bigsby in my Week 2 Running Back Waiver Adds article, so I'll keep this one short. Bigsby outperformed Travis Etienne in Week 1, and he is definitely worth adding. He is unlikely to ever truly unseat Etienne as the Jaguars' lead back, but he could carve out a standalone flex role and still has massive injury-based upside. 

Sleeper Add: Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (15% EWI)

We're jumping down the EWI ranks here, as Irving's 15% EWI ranks just 15th among all players. But I would add him above every other player mentioned in this article aside from Likely (and even that one depends on your team situation). Irving's situation is very similar to Bigsby's in that he clearly outplayed his team's RB1, Rachaad White, in Week 1. According to NextGenStats, Irving, a fourth-round pick in this year's draft, finished with three rushing yards below expected in his NFL debut. That sounds bad, until you realize that White had 32 yards below expected, easily the worst in the league. 

This is where Irving separates himself from Bigsby: He has a real shot to eventually take over as the Buccaneers' lead back, even without an injury. White has been terribly inefficient over the last few years, including posting the worst success rate in the league last year at 30.1% (per SumerSports). So far in 2024, that doesn't seem to have changed. If Irving can continue to offer even replacement-level efficiency, Tampa Bay's coaches will have to give him a shot eventually. He is a priority add this week. 

#2024-fantasy-football #waivers