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Is Tua Tagovailoa a Must Start Against Bills with Dolphins RB Room Banged Up?

Taking a look at the Dolphins best fantasy starting options for week 2.

Morgan Rode Sep 11th 1:42 PM EDT.

USA TODAY Sports
USA TODAY Sports

Week 2 of the NFL regular season kicks off with a fun matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins.

Let’s take a look at the best fantasy football starting options for the Dolphins, after already looking at the Bills’ options.

Looking for start/sit help? Be sure to check out the FantasySP Who Should I Start tool.

Tua Tagovailoa Fantasy Outlook

Tagovailoa enjoyed the best passing day of any quarterback in week 1. He completed 23 of his 37 attempts for 338 yards and a touchdown. He didn’t throw an interception or fumble, while adding an 11-yard rush.

The Bills’ defense held Cardinals’ Kyler Murray mostly in check in week 1. Murray was 21-of-31 for 162 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions. The dual-threat QB added 57 yards on five attempts and was sacked two times.

Miami has a loaded offense, but will be without Raheem Mostert, and maybe De'Von Achane as they deal with injuries.

There’s still enough playmakers for Tagovailoa to have a big fantasy day, and maybe with a couple backs out, his fantasy value is even higher. He’s projected for 20 fantasy points in week 2.

Tagovailoa’s fantasy value would rise if Achane isn’t able to play.

Running Back Fantasy Outlook

Achane played 37 snaps in week 1, while Mostert was at 31 snaps. Fullback Alec Ingold was on the field for 29 snaps. Backup running backs Jeff Wilson played 11 snaps, while rookie Jaylen Wright was inactive.

Achane had 17 touches, rushing 10 times for 24 yards and a touchdown, while hauling in all seven of his targets for 76 yards.

Mostert got eight touches, rushing six times for nine yards and adding 10 receiving yards on two catches and three targets.

Ingold had two rushing attempts, gaining eight yards. He failed to catch his lone target. Wilson rushed five times for 26 yards and was not targeted in the passing game.

The Bills’ defense held the Cardinals’ RBs to 63 rushing yards, but also allowed 64 receiving yards. Backs scored once on the ground and had 25 total touches.

Achane is projected for 16 PPR fantasy points, but if he’s available, I don’t anticipate him being a workhorse by any means.

Wright is projected for four fantasy points, while Wilson is not in the top 59 spots on the projection page. 

Wide Receiver Fantasy Outlook

Jaylen Waddle played 51 snaps in week 1, while Tyreek Hill played 50. Waddle had five catches on as many targets for 109 yards. Hill went for 130 yards and a touchdown on seven catches and 12 targets.

Braxton Berrios played 26 snaps in week 1. He failed to haul in either of his targets.

Grant DuBose played 13 snaps and was not targeted. Robbie Chosen played 12 snaps and also wasn’t targeted. Malik Washington didn’t play in week 1 and hasn’t practiced at all this week.

The Bills’ defense allowed just 56 receiving yards to wide receivers in week 1. That came on eight catches and 13 targets. One of those catches was a touchdown.

Hill is the top-projected fantasy receiver in week 2, set at 21 PPR points. Waddle isn’t too far behind, projected for 15 points. No other Dolphins land inside our top 77 wideouts.

If Achane is also out, that would only boost the value of Hill and Waddle.

Sep 8, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA;  Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) catches a pass for an 80-yard touchdown in the third quarter as Jacksonville Jaguars safety Andre Cisco (5) follows on the play at Hard Rock Stadium. Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images
Sep 8, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) catches a pass for an 80-yard touchdown in the third quarter as Jacksonville Jaguars safety Andre Cisco (5) follows on the play at Hard Rock Stadium. Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

Tight End Fantasy Outlook

Miami played four different tight ends in week 1, with Julian Hill getting 42 snaps to lead the team. He had just one catch and target, going for six yards.

Durham Smythe played 30 snaps and didn’t catch any of his three targets. Jonnu Smith was at 20 snaps, making one catch on two targets for seven yards. Tanner Conner played three snaps and didn’t get a target.

Buffalo allowed 42 receiving yards to tight ends in week 1. The TEs caught seven of the 11 passes thrown their way.

No Miami tight ends rank inside the top 23 in our week 2 projections.

Kicker and Defense Outlook

Jason Sanders is the Miami kicker and made four kicks in week 1. He made two extra points and 37- and 52-yard field goals. Sanders missed a field goal from 42 yards.

In week 1, the opposing kicker had two extra points and two field goals against the Bills.

Sanders is projected for eight points in week 2.

Miami’s defense allowed just 267 total yards in week 1 - 128 rushing yards and 162 passing yards. The Dolphins had three sacks and a takeaway. Buffalo’s offense had 352 total yards - 130 rushing yards and 232 passing yards. Buffalo was sacked twice and had one turnover.

Miami’s D/ST is projected for six fantasy points in week 2.

Who to Start in Week 1

This matchup is fun in my eyes, and I could see the game being a shootout or a defensive battle. I’ll say it lands somewhere in the middle, with Buffalo prevailing 27-24. Check out more odds and bettings details here.

It’s hard not to like Tagovailoa most weeks, because the Dolphins have two great receivers and seem to be among the league leaders in passing yards often. The matchup this week isn’t great, but given the running back situation, I see Tagovailoa as a great fantasy option in week 2. He should be starting in all league types (unless your starter is Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes) and his value would only go up if Achane isn’t playing.

Achane is too electric to not start if he’s playing, even if he’s limited. He’s a risky play, but without Mostert around, he’d have a chance for a big fantasy day.

If Achane can’t go, I expect Wilson and Wright to split the workload. I wouldn’t trust either guy with a starting spot in a standard league, but would be fine giving either a starting role in a deeper setup. If you only have room for one guy, I’d take Wilson - because he actually was active and played in week 1.

Hill and Waddle are pretty much must-start fantasy players at this point, and it’s especially true this week with the Dolphins' RB room banged up.

Hill has a great chance to finish as fantasy WR1 this week - if Achane is out, I’d actually be a little surprised if Hill isn’t WR1 by the end of the week.

Waddle was great in week 1 and should have a chance for an even better game in week 2. He could be another top-10 fantasy receiver if Achane is out or even limited.

I don’t trust any of the other Miami wideouts in any league type. Last week’s stats show you that, and I don’t expect anything too different this week, even with the running backs banged up. I’d take them in the order of week 1 snap counts: Berrios, DuBose, Chosen and Washington.

I don’t like any of the Miami tight ends either, in any format. One could step up this week, but with Hill, Smythe and Smith all playing 20 or more snaps last week, I have no clue which guy it might be. Avoid the Miami tight ends until they give us a reason to play them.

I do like Sanders this week (and most). I only have him down for a field goal and a few extra points, but he’s trustworthy enough most weeks, and I’d be fine starting him again this week.

I’m not a fan of the Dolphins’ D/ST this week. Anytime you are talking about going up against a QB like Allen, it’s always a risky proposition. I don’t see enough value in the D/ST to play them in week 2.

#2024-fantasy-football #start-sit-decision

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