Fantasy Football Week 7 Start/Sit Decisions: Baker Mayfield vs. Jordan Love, Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson

Ted breaks down whether to start Baker Mayfield over other potential QB1s in Week 7 fantasy football matchups.

Heading into Week 7, the FantasySP team has you covered with all your fantasy football start/sit questions! If you have questions about running backs or wide receivers, check out our weekly breakdowns. 

However, if you clicked on this article looking for answers about Baker Mayfield, you’re in the right place! Baker is the overall QB2 so far this season, but it’s hard to know whether that’s for real. He also wasn’t drafted as even a top-20 QB, so anyone rostering Baker is likely to have another option. Let’s break down whether he should start above some other potential QB1s.

Looking for more help with your toughest fantasy football Start/Sit decisions? Be sure to check out the FantasySP Start/Sit Tool!

Baker Mayfield Week 7 Fantasy Outlook

Let’s start by breaking down the man of the hour. As mentioned, Mayfield is the overall QB2 six weeks into the season, averaging 22.5 fantasy points per game, more than anyone not named Lamar Jackson. Mayfield has been consistent, too, ranking as a top-seven QB in all but one week.

Multiple factors have gone into Baker’s hot start. For one, the Bucs are fifth in the league with a pass rate 5.1% above expected. They also aren’t afraid to keep pouring it on with a lead, with a 56% pass rate when leading by at least seven points. Tampa also ranks 10th in pass rate inside the 10-yard line, although they are actually below average in overall red zone pass rate. They do rank fifth as a team with 75% of their touchdowns having come through the air.

In fact, touchdown rate is somewhere where Baker is likely due for some negative regression. His current 7.9% TD rate is nearly a full percentage point higher than Brock Purdy’s NFL-leading 7.0% in 2023, and that was already an outlier number. Baker's TD rate will almost certainly come down. After all, he ranks just 10th with 248 passing yards per game. Even once we add in his 22.6 rushing yards per game (he also has two touchdowns on the ground), it’s clear that TDs are doing some heavy lifting in his fantasy value.

For this week, Mayfield has a matchup that may sound tough against the Ravens’ defense. However, Baltimore is actually the fourth-softest schedule-adjusted fantasy matchup for quarterbacks. The Ravens also rank second among NFL defenses in pass rate over expected against at 7.0% — with their elite rush defense, teams are turning to the pass against Baltimore. Tampa should be no different. 

With all this in mind, I don’t think we can expect Mayfield to keep putting up top-two QB numbers. However, maintaining QB1 production seems like a very reasonable prediction. Especially in a good matchup with the Ravens, Baker is a locked-in mid-tier QB1 for Week 7. 

Baker Mayfield vs. Jordan Love

He has missed two games to start the season, but Love is right behind Mayfield at 21.5 fantasy points per game. However, he’s an even bigger regression candidate on the TD front, with a league-leading 8.2% TD rate across his four games. The Packers lead the league with an absurd 82.3% of their touchdowns coming through the air — that’s not going to last.

This number is especially due for regression as the Packers aren’t a hugely pass-happy team. Even if we look just at Love’s four games, they have a pass rate of 2.9% above expected (although they do rank in the top five in pass rate inside the 10 and inside the 20). Love also offers less on the ground than Mayfield, with just 7.2 rushing yards per game.

Love does have a good matchup, as the Texans rank as the seventh-best matchup for quarterbacks … but it’s still not as good as Mayfield’s. Both are QB1 options this week, but I recommend going with Baker here.

Start: Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield vs. Brock Purdy

From this year’s current TD rate leader to last year’s, Purdy (thanks largely to some TD regression) is currently averaging roughly two fewer fantasy points per game than he did in 2023. He ranks as the QB13 in points per game, just outside the QB1 range (although he is the QB12 if we remove Joe Flacco). 

On the bright side, Purdy actually ranks third in the league in passing yards per game with 271.5. He also averages a couple of points on the ground with 21.2 rushing yards per game. He gets an interesting matchup this week against the Chiefs. Kansas City has one of the best run defenses in the league, so you might think they would be a pass funnel like Baltimore. But teams are actually passing at a rate just 2.0% over expected against the reigning Super Bowl champs. Purdy is due for some better days going forward as his TD rate trends upward, but I don’t think this is the week to back him as more than a backend QB1. 

Start: Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield vs. Joe Burrow

After a very rough first game out without some of his top weapons, Burrow has been on fire over the last five weeks. He threw for at least two touchdowns in four straight games, including a five-touchdown explosion against that aforementioned Baltimore pass-funnel in Week 5. Not traditionally much of a runner, Burrow even chipped in with a 47-yard rushing touchdown against a sleeping Giants defense last week. In Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Burrow has arguably the best WR duo in the league, and he’s taking advantage.

With that said, this week is not an ideal setup for Burrow. His Week 5 explosion came because he was fighting to keep up with the elite Baltimore offense. This week, he faces another AFC North division rival, the Browns … who don’t exactly have an elite offense. And while their defense is not dominant like it was last year, Cleveland’s D is still no pushover. This figures to be a heavy Zack Moss and Chase Brown week for Cincinnati, who are 5.5-point favorites. Once again, I lean toward Baker over Burrow, who is still a solid QB1 option. 

Start: Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield vs. Jalen Hurts

Don’t worry, I’m not going to back Baker forever. In fact, here is where things start to change. After three straight matchups with his fellow pocket passers, Mayfield is suddenly paired against a true dual-threat QB in Jalen Hurts. So far in this article, I’ve been counting around 20 rushing yards per game as a solid boost — Hurts is averaging nearly 40. And we all know about his rushing TD upside, thanks to the Tush Push. 

Hurts’ matchup isn’t as good as Baker’s, as the Giants are just about average in points given up to opposing quarterbacks. But, especially with his two top weapons back, Hurts is no average fantasy quarterback. The Eagles’ offense looked stagnant for long stretches of their game against the Browns last week, and Hurts still exited with nearly 22 fantasy points. Rushing upside combined with legit passing production is simply a fantasy cheat code. 

Start: Jalen Hurts 

Baker Mayfield vs. Sam Darnold

Now we get back to more of a fair fight, as Darnold is very comparable to Baker. Another former journeyman now thriving in a new home, Darnold also has benefited from a high touchdown rate: His is at 8.0%, just .1% above Mayfield. I know I keep harping on touchdown rate, but it really is one of the biggest (and most random) factors in determining fantasy success for these pocket passer QBs. 

With that said, Darnold hasn’t found quite as much fantasy success as Mayfield so far this season, despite the higher TD rate. He posted three straight top-10 outings in Week 2 through Week 4 but came back to Earth with a dreadful 4.3-point outing against the Jets in Week 5. To be fair to Darnold, the Jets are arguably the toughest matchup for fantasy quarterbacks. 

This week, Darnold gets a more intriguing matchup with Detroit. So far, the Lions have been a solidly below-average fantasy matchup for quarterbacks. But they lost their best defensive player last week in Aidan Hutchinson, and oddsmakers are projecting the Vikings to move the ball well in this divisional showdown, with team totals as high as 25.5. If that happens, Darnold will absolutely be a part of it. This is especially true because his ceiling has been capped in a few games this season by the Vikings getting huge leads early; that won’t be an issue against this Lions team. On a per-attempt basis, Darnold is fifth in the league in yards, just ahead of Mayfield. That’s enough for me to back the former Viking in this battle.

Start: Sam Darnold

Baker Mayfield vs. Lamar Jackson

I get that Baker is the QB2 so far this season, but I was still shocked to see this as one of the most popular Start/Sit questions for the week. Jackson is the QB1 overall, ahead of Mayfield, and he hasn’t relied on an unsustainable TD rate to get there. This is an easy, easy choice. 

Start: Lamar Jackson

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