Fantasy Football Week 9 Start/Sit Decisions: Brian Robinson vs. J.K. Dobbins, Alexander Mattison, Chuba Hubbard, Chase Brown, James Conner

Heading into Week 9, the FantasySP team has you covered with all your fantasy football start/sit questions! Morgan Rode has taken a look at quarterbacks and wide receivers, while Daniel Hepner is all over any DST questions. You can also check out the entire Start/Sit section for even more decisions. 

However, if you clicked on this article looking for answers about Brian Robinson, you’re in the right place! Robinson is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury, but he is reportedly expected to be active. With that in mind, let’s break down his fantasy outlook for a matchup with a surprisingly tough Giants defense and compare him to other RB2 options. 

UPDATE: Robinson is OUT for this week. If you want info on J.K. Dobbins, Alexander Mattison, Chuba Hubbard, Chase Brown, or James Conner, read on, but make sure Robinson is not in your lineup.

Looking for more help with your toughest fantasy football Start/Sit decisions? Be sure to check out the FantasySP Start/Sit Tool!

Brian Robinson Week 9 Fantasy Outlook

As mentioned in the intro, Robinson is currently dealing with a hamstring injury that kept him limited in practice all week. While reports indicate that he is planning on playing, he is technically a game-time decision, so make sure to triple-check his availability closer to game time (luckily, the Commanders play in the early set of Sunday games). 

As for how limited Robinson will be by his injury if he plays, that is always tough to know. However, we have seen Robinson play with a questionable tag before this season, as he suited up in both Week 5 and Week 7 despite dealing with a knee injury. In both of those contests, Robinson started as the Commanders’ lead back but finished with far lower than his usual snap share (Washington did win both games comfortably, which may have affected things). With that in mind, there is some risk that Robinson will be active but not see a normal workload. However, especially at the RB position, I lean toward assuming simplicity — if a player is healthy, they will probably see close to their normal workload. 

For Robinson, that workload is a good one. Even including his two injury-affected weeks, he has averaged a 54% snap share in the Commanders’ offense. He has handled 65% of the team’s RB rushes, including seven of eight within the five-yard line. He isn’t particularly involved in the receiving game but has managed 11 targets on a solid 27% route participation rate. 

This week, he matches up against a Giants defense that has been the fifth-best schedule-adjusted matchup for running backs. New York boasts a ferocious pass rush but actually ranks dead last in the league in yards per attempt given up to opposing RBs at 5.36. The Commanders are also four-point favorites with a solid 23-point total, which is a great sign for Robinson’s chances to score yet another rushing TD (he has six in seven games so far this season). While he comes with a bit of added risk due to his injury designation, Robinson is still a solid RB2 candidate for this week.

Brian Robinson vs. J.K. Dobbins

After missing the majority of the last three seasons with various injuries, Dobbins has had an interesting comeback season. Over the first few weeks of the year, he split carries with Gus Edwards but was insanely efficient, breaking off multiple huge runs. In more recent weeks, the breakaway plays have dried up, and Dobbins’ efficiency has waned, but he has compensated by seeing an elite workload with Edwards on IR.

Over the last three weeks, with Edwards sidelined, Dobbins has played 74% of the Chargers’ snaps, handled 77% of their RB rushes, and even seen a 9.5% target share on 41% route participation. Over those three weeks, he ranks ninth among RBs with 17.1 expected Half-PPR points per game, although he has underperformed that number with just 15.2 actual points per game.  

However, Dobbins does have a very tough matchup this week. The Browns rank as the third worst schedule-adjusted fantasy matchup for RBs. The Chargers are just one-point favorites and have a lower total than Robinson’s Commanders at 20.5 or 21.5, depending on the book. With that said, especially given the chance that Robinson is heavily limited by his injury, I think we need to chase volume here. It might not be as pretty, but Dobbins should see enough touches to have a solid outing this week. 

Start: J.K. Dobbins

Brian Robinson vs. Chuba Hubbard

Speaking of players with solid volume who might not be in ideal situations, we have Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard has absolutely dominated the Panthers’ backfield of late, with a 73% snap share and an 83% RB rush share since Week 3. He has also seen a 10% target share on a 49% route participation rate.

The issue for Hubbard is the offensive environment he finds himself in. With Bryce Young under center (as he will be this week), the Panthers have averaged an abysmal 9.0 points per game. In those three contests, Hubbard himself has averaged just 6.4 Half-PPR points per game. 

To be fair to Hubbard, two of his three games with Young came early in the season before he truly took over the Panthers’ backfield. He also has a great matchup with the Saints, who are the seventh-best fantasy opponent for running backs. Carolina may be seven-point underdogs, but they do have a 17.5-point implied total; that would be terrible for another team, but at least it beats that 9.0 average. 

With that said, I still can’t get behind starting Hubbard over Robinson. The Panthers’ offense is a real threat to completely implode every week. A great role won’t translate to fantasy points for Hubbard if his team can’t even stay on the field. Robinson is the play here.

Start: Brian Robinson Chuba Hubbard

Brian Robinson vs. Alexander Mattison

In many ways, Mattison is similar to Hubbard. He claimed a workhorse role in the Raiders’ backfield when Zamir White missed time with an injury and hasn’t looked back even after the sophomore returned (White played just two offensive snaps last week). Over the last four weeks, Mattison has played 65% of the Raiders’ snaps and handled 81% of their RB rushes. He has also been involved in the passing game, with an 11% target share on a 40% route participation rate. 

In fact, Mattison actually leads all running backs in expected fantasy points over that span, with 19.8 expected points per game. However, he has vastly underperformed, with a much more mediocre 11.2 actual points per game. Already not a special talent, Mattison has been further held back by Vegas’ overall struggles. 

That could continue this week, as the Raiders are 7.5-point underdogs on the road in Cincinnati. Their offense has been better than anything we’ve seen from Bryce Young, but they still have an identical 17.5-point implied total to the one that scared us off of Hubbard. With that in mind, we have to start Robinson over Mattison this week.

Start: Brian Robinson Alexander Mattison

Brian Robinson vs. Chase Brown

Honestly, of every decision in this article, this one is the easiest. Every other RB we’ve discussed so far has at least one glaring red flags this week. Robinson is banged up and in a tough matchup. Hubbard and Mattison play on horrendous offenses. With Zack Moss sidelined, Brown has none of those issues.

The explosive sophomore had already been claiming the Bengals’ lead RB job for himself, but Moss has remained involved. Cincinnati especially does not trust Brown to protect Joe Burrow, as he has just five pass-blocking snaps all season to Moss’ 51. This has corresponded to Moss nearly doubling Brown in route participation rate, 50% to 27%. But Moss is out this week with a neck injury. Hopefully, Brown’s role in the passing game will expand at least a bit.

Even if it doesn’t, this is a dream spot for Brown. He is on the other side of that massive 7.5-point spread from Mattison, facing a Raiders team that ranks as the fourth-best matchup for opposing RBs. Where most of the names in this article are RB2 candidates, I consider Brown a borderline RB1 this week. He’s the obvious play here. 

Start: Chase Brown 

Brian Robinson vs. James Conner

I am a firm believer that Conner is one of the most perenially underrated backs in the league. He is quietly one of the most consistently efficient rushers in the NFL, yet the fantasy community keeps assuming he will lose his job (anyone remember Trey Benson?). 

So far this season, Conner has been up to his old tricks. He has seen 75% of the Cardinals’ RB rush attempts on a 67% snap share, and managed an 8% target share despite not playing in true passing situations. He has also handled every single one of the Cardinals’ goal-line carries, as well as being the only Arizona RB with an attempt inside the 10.  

However, the Cardinals do have a tough matchup this week with a good Bears defense — Chicago is the eighth-toughest adjusted matchup for running backs. This is not a Mattison/Hubbard situation — the Cardinals are slightly favored with a 22.5-point total — but Conner is unlikely to run riot this week. With that said, his overall role and situation is actually very similar to Robinson’s. Once we consider that Robinson is banged up, I’m going to give the nod to the veteran. 

Start: James Conner

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