Finding the Top Week 16 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Jerome Ford, Jalen McMillan, Brenton Strange, Kendre Miller

Perhaps the most powerful fantasy football tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

Heading into a matchup with the Titans, the Colts’ defense leads the way with a 56% EWI mark (for what it’s worth, that matchup isn’t as good without Will Levis, and the Colts did not make my Week 16 Streaming Defenses article). Normally, a defense topping the EWI charts is a sign that there aren’t many great options in a given week, but that is not the case this week. Just after Indianapolis in EWI we have one player from each non-QB position who is an absolute must-add in Jerome Ford, Jalen McMillan, and Brenton Strange. We also have some intriguing options further down the list. Let’s break them all down!  

Top Predicted Week 16 Fantasy Football Adds

RB Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns (46% EWI)

With Nick Chubb done for the season with a broken foot, Ford is unsurprisingly the top player (non-defense) in EWI this week. Following Chubb’s early exit in Week 15, Ford played 83% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps and handled all of their running back touches. He is also heading into two decent matchups with the Bengals and Dolphins, who both rank as above-average schedule-adjusted matchups for running backs.

I do think we need to temper expectations for Ford slightly. He operated as the Browns’ RB1 in the six games prior to Chubb’s return, and the results weren’t great, averaging just 8.5 Half-PPR points per game. There were also multiple weeks in which he was out-carried by D’Onta Foreman, who will likely return to Cleveland’s active roster with Chubb sidelined. With that said, Ford is still an absolute must-add and someone you can start in a pinch. The Browns should be playing from behind over the next two weeks, which certainly favors his style over Foreman’s. If he is available in your league, be willing and prepared to spend up for Ford if you need RB help.  

WR Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (46% EWI)

One week can be a fluke, but is two weeks the beginning of a pattern? After not doing much for most of the season, the third-round rookie has put up back-to-back top-20 finishes. Especially given what we know about rookie receivers often finishing the season strong, it’s not surprising that fantasy managers are buying into the potential breakout from McMillan. 

I’m on board, too. McMillan has secured his spot as the WR2 in the Buccaneers’ offense, with a 77% route participation rate in each of the last three weeks. Given that Baker Mayfield ranks fourth in the league in yards and third in touchdowns, that’s a very valuable place to be, especially heading into matchups with the Cowboys and Panthers.

With all that said, this isn’t the time of the year to be adding WR4/WR5 types who are still in the middle of hopefully breaking out. If you don’t see a scenario where you start McMillan over the next two weeks, he’s not worth adding — that spot is better used on a handcuff running back. But if you’re in a deeper league where McMillan can immediately compete for your flex spot, he is absolutely a valid add.

TE Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars (44% EWI)

With Evan Engram done for the season after undergoing surgery on a shoulder injury, Strange is now the Jaguars’ TE1. If Week 15 was anything to go by, he is also a clear fantasy TE1. Strange led all tight ends with 12 targets last week, catching all but one for 73 yards. He also posted a solid 78% route participation rate, the eighth-highest among tight ends for the week.

Now, those 12 targets represent a 26% target share, which may seem like a lot to expect from a backup tight end. But we should remember that Strange was a second-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft for a reason — he is a solid receiving option. On a team that has suffered multiple injuries at receiver and is desperate for pass-catchers outside of Brian Thomas Jr., Strange has a real shot at establishing himself as a safety blanket for Mac Jones. If you’ve got questions at tight end, Strange is someone you can pick up off the waiver wire and plug straight into your lineup for Week 16.

RB Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints (36% EWI)

Miller’s projected EWI is currently 36%, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that number has changed massively by the time waivers actively run. Miller’s value is hugely contingent on the health of Alvin Kamara, so any news, positive or negative, on the veteran’s status would have a huge impact on the level of excitement for the second-year RB.

If Kamara were to miss time, Miller would be an immediate starting option. He played 88% of New Orleans’ offensive snaps and handled every touch after the veteran exited in the fourth quarter of Week 15. Jamaal Williams would also be involved if Kamara is ruled out, but it’s clear that Miller would be the lead back. 

And, from what we’ve seen this season, it looks like Miller has the talent to go with the potential opportunity. His 86.4 PFF Rush Grade ranks eighth among all RBs for the season, and he ranks sixth among backs with at least 25 carries with 3.71 yards after contact per attempt. He also posted a 31% route participation rate in Week 15, so the Saints clearly trust him as a pass-catching option. If it sounds like Kamara will miss time, Miller should leapfrog Ford as the most exciting pickup of the week. His Week 16 matchup and QB situation aren’t ideal, but he does get an excellent matchup in Week 17 against the Raiders.

QB Drake Maye, New England Patriots (24% EWI)

I’m honestly not sure why Drake Maye is trending up this dramatically. His Week 15 was solid, but nothing special, as he finished as the QB11 with 18.5 points. And it’s not like he has a great matchup for Week 16, as the Patriots head to Buffalo to face the Bills. They may have been torn apart by the Rams and Lions over the last two weeks, but the Bills’ defense is still a bad matchup for a rookie quarterback behind the league’s worst offensive line. Things don’t get any easier for Maye in Week 17, in which New England will host the Chargers’ elite defense. 

Putting it all together, I don’t see any real reason to add Maye this week in most leagues. There are probably better streaming options available in most 1-QB leagues for each of the next two weeks, and those are the only two weeks that matter. Maye’s dual-threat ability will hopefully make him a weekly QB1 eventually, but this isn’t the year. He can be left on the waiver wire.  

TE Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers (18% EWI)

Freiermuth is unique on this list in that he is already rostered in well over 50% of leagues, with a 66% roster percentage. With that said, it makes sense that he is trending up now. Having been a member of the TE Wasteland for most of the season, Freiermuth is seeing better usage with George Pickens sidelined. He posted an excellent 81% route participation rate in Week 15 and tied for the team-high with five targets (a 23% share). He did catch only three of those targets for 22 yards, but a touchdown meant he finished with a solid fantasy day.

Looking forward, the Steelers’ next two matchups are against the Ravens and Chiefs, who have both been very soft against opposing tight ends. Baltimore gives up the sixth-most yards per game to the position, while the Chiefs lead the league by a solid margin. Friermuth is absolutely worth scooping up if he is available and you are looking for TE help … although I might still prefer Strange.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.