Best Fantasy Football D/ST Streaming Options for Week 16: Packers, Falcons, Bengals, Cardinals

Welcome to Week 16’s fantasy football D/ST streaming options breakdown! If you are reading this article, I hope it’s because you are in the playoff semifinals and not just a step or two away from a last-place finish. Regardless of why you’re here, I will try to find the best D/ST picks widely available on waivers for Week 16. 

Before we get into Week 16, let’s take a quick look back at last week. My four Week 15 picks ran the entire gauntlet of defensive results. The Falcons were excellent, finishing as the second-best team of the week with a whopping 21 points. The Panthers were terrible, giving up 30 points to Cooper Rush en route to a negative finish. And the Commanders (seven points) and Cardinals (five points) were both mediocre — they didn’t win you the week, but they probably didn’t lose it for you, either. Hopefully for Week 16 we can come through with more smash picks like Atlanta. Let’s get started! 

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Week 16 Fantasy Football Defense Streaming Options

Green Bay Packers (46.3% Rostered) vs. New Orleans Saints

Assuming Derek Carr is out, the Packers are easily the best streaming option of the week. Even after the Commanders scored just six points last week, defenses against the Saints without Carr are averaging 13 points across four games this season.

It’s unclear who the Saints will turn to under center if Carr is out again this week, as they began with Jake Haener in Week 15 before switching to Spencer Rattler. Luckily, it doesn’t matter. Among 49 QBs with at least 50 plays this season, Haener ranks dead last in EPA per play … and Rattler ranks third to last, beating out only Drew Lock. Neither QB has played enough to qualify for the sack rate leaderboards, but if they did, they would rank last (Haener) and fourth-worst (Rattler). 

Meanwhile, the Packers’ defense is a totally respectable unit. They rank seventh-best in EPA per play, eighth-best in points per game, and 10th-best in yards per game. They are also tied for seventh in terms of sack production, and we all know how much sacks help with defensive fantasy scoring. If the Packers are available in your league, they should be your top priority on waivers this week.

Atlanta Falcons (18.4% Rostered) vs. New York Giants

Things just go from bad to worse for the Giants. With Drew Lock inactive and Tommy DeVito exiting early with a concussion, they finished their Week 15 game with Tim Boyle under center. You know the situation is dire when losing Tommy DeVito to injury is a clear downgrade. 

As of right now, it’s unclear whether we will see Lock, Boyle, or DeVito in Week 16 … but it really doesn’t matter. All three of those QBs rank in the bottom 16 among quarterbacks with at least 50 plays in EPA per play. Lock and Boyle are first and fourth in turnover-worthy-play rate, while DeVito avoids turnovers but makes up for it with an absurd 30% pressure-to-sack rate. 

Of course, the Falcons' defense isn’t very good. But, as they proved on Monday night, they are more than capable of taking advantage of a backup quarterback (or a backup backup backup quarterback) without much talent around them. If you picked up the Falcons for last week against the Raiders, you’re probably in your fantasy semifinals (21 points from a defense is a massive swing). Keep them right in there for this juicy matchup.

Cincinnati Bengals (38.0% Rostered) vs. Cleveland Browns

The Browns have announced that they will be starting second-year QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson for their Week 16 matchup against the Bengals. You might think that this is bad news for Cincinnati’s defense, as it means they won’t get to face the interception machine known as Jameis Winston. But DTR has somehow been more turnover-prone (on a very small sample) than Winston this season, with three interceptions on just 34 attempts and a 7.1% turnover-worthy-play rate that would rank as far and away the worst if he had enough volume to qualify. If we look back at his 123 dropbacks as a rookie, DTR’s 4.5% turnover-worthy-play rate is still not far behind Winston this year (5.2%). 

And, while not necessarily being less mistake-prone, Thompson-Robinson brings nowhere near the same level of explosive potential as Winston. Where Winston has averaged 7.2 yards per attempt this season, DTR is down at an astonishingly terrible 2.9. No other QB with at least 30 dropbacks is below 4.6 (Drew Lock). Once again, looking back to 2023 shows that this level of struggle likely isn’t an outlier for Thompson-Robinson, who averaged just 3.9 yards across 112 attempts last season. Unfortunately, the terrible stats don't end there for DTR. Over the last two years, 61 quarterbacks have recorded at least 150 plays. The only two that he beats out in EPA per play are Bailey Zappe and Trevor Siemian … and he falls below Siemian in adjusted EPA per play. DTR also ranks dead last among those same 61 QBs in completion percentage vs. expected with an absurd -12.8% mark — Anthony Richardson is second-worst at -10.2%. 

I guess I should also mention the actual unit I am recommending, but I really don’t have much to say about the Bengals’ defense. They’re very bad, one of the worst defenses in the league. But they’re also coming off an 18-point fantasy outing against the Titans despite giving up 27 points along the way. Fantasy defenses are all about matchups, matchups, matchups, and this one is as good as they get.

Arizona Cardinals (31.1% Rostered) @ Carolina Panthers

After a few weeks of looking like a competent NFL offense, Bryce Young and the Panthers came plummeting back to Earth in Week 15. As a result, the Cowboys’ defense finished with more defensive fantasy points (17) than real-life points allowed (14). Young took his most sacks of the year (six) and posted a season-high 7.1% turnover-worthy-play rate.

Now, I don’t necessarily expect the Panthers to revert to the historically terrible levels of effectiveness they were showing over the first few weeks. But I think last week’s outing is a sign that they haven’t truly turned a corner, so I’m choosing to take Young/Carolina’s season-long stats at face value … and those stats are bad. Carolina ranks fifth-worst in points per game, second-worst in yards per game, and fourth-worst in EPA per play. 

If you’re worried that those numbers are being dragged down by Andy Dalton, Young personally ranks 10th-worst among 44 100-play QBs in EPA per play and sixth-worst among 38 200-play QBs. The former first-overall pick also has the 16th-highest turnover-worthy-play rate, although he at least takes sacks at a rate below the league average. 

Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been at least decent on the defensive side of the ball in recent weeks. They rank sixth in EPA per play allowed since Week 9 (admittedly, I 1000% cherry-picked that span, but they are at least average over any span of at least three games going as far back as Week 7). For the season, they’ve given up the 10th-fewest points per game and 16th-fewest yards per game. Even though they let us down last week against the Patriots, I like the Cardinals' chances to bounce back in a great matchup in a must-win game.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.