Fantasy Football Conference Championship Weekend QB Start/Sit: Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes
A look at the four quarterbacks in action this weekend.
We are running out of football. Only three games remain, and there are only two chances to play fantasy football and DFS contests. If we’re going to do it, we may as well do it right and put in the work to make the best decisions.
Let’s look at the four quarterbacks in action on conference championship weekend. There are no scrubs at this point, so everyone is technically a “start” player. This will be more about who has a chance to be the best of the best in the penultimate games of the NFL season.
I used stats from NFL.com and our FantasySP defensive fantasy rankings and will reference those numbers often. Fantasy scores and rankings from the season are from FantasyPros. The full QB rankings are listed at the bottom.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Allen finished as QB2 behind only Lamar Jackson. (Jackson scored nearly 13% more fantasy points than Allen; Lamar was nuts this year.) Allen led the league in fantasy points in 2020, 2021, and 2023, while finishing second behind Patrick Mahomes in 2022. There’s no arguing about his fantasy status.
Kansas City was right in the middle in both yards per pass attempt allowed and fantasy points given up to quarterbacks. They are a successful defense overall, but KC did better shutting down the run than the pass this season.
These teams played in Week 11, a game the Bills won 30-21 at home. Allen had nice volume numbers, with 262 passing yards, a touchdown, and an interception. His fantasy score was helped by 55 rushing yards and another score on the ground. That’s around 24 fantasy points, just another day at the office for Allen.
His efficiency wasn’t as great, as he averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt, a little below average (which is around 7.0). His team won, though, the most important measure, and Allen will be the driving force again if his team is to win. Even if they lose, he’ll probably still put together a nice fantasy day.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
What a season. I was touting Daniels as a weekly fantasy starter before the season started, but I didn’t expect him to play so well in seemingly every big moment. Forget fantasy football: Daniels is trying to claim his spot among the best QBs in the league.
Daniels was QB5, finishing with around 3,500 passing yards and 900 rushing yards. He threw for 25 touchdowns with just nine interceptions and ran for another six scores. Daniels will be drafted as a top-five quarterback in fantasy next year.
The Eagles might have the best defense in the league and will likely make things tough on the rookie. Philadelphia allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt this season (and it wasn’t even close), and they gave up the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
As division rivals, these teams played twice during the season. The first game took place in Philadelphia (where this game will be played), and Daniels struggled mightily as his team lost. Their second matchup ended up as a late Washington victory after Jalen Hurts left in the first quarter with a concussion.
Philly’s offense played fine without their starting quarterback, though. It was the defense who couldn’t stop Daniels that lost the game for the Eagles and announced the Commanders as a team who could hang with anyone. Daniels threw for 258 yards and five touchdowns in that game and ran for another 81 yards (with two interceptions).
I can’t rate Daniels as high as Allen because of how good the Philadelphia defense is, but he is next on the list this week. Like Allen, Daniels can put together a phenomenal fantasy effort even if his team ends up losing.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders
It’s sometimes hard to come to terms with Hurts as a top fantasy quarterback because he often doesn’t rack up passing yards. He played in just 15 of the 17 games this season (and missed most of another game), but Hurts was under 3,000 yards and had just 18 touchdowns (though limiting to five interceptions was also nice).
Volume is what’s keeping him down, though: Not counting Week 16 when he was injured in the first quarter, Hurts threw just 25.5 passes per game and logged 70 fewer pass attempts than any other season as a starter (since 2021). He had his highest completion percentage (68.7%) and yards per pass attempt (8.0) this season, though, showing better efficiency as the run game leads the way.
Hurts becomes an elite fantasy QB when factoring in his rushing production. He averaged 42 yards per game and scored 14 touchdowns on the ground. That means Hurts was averaging about 10 fantasy points per game running the football. His phenomenal floor can only be matched by the best running quarterbacks.
Washington was right in the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed, but they gave up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. It only took one season and the switch to defensive head coach Dan Quinn for the Commanders to turn into a top-10 defensive squad.
While Hurts missed most of the second meeting between these teams, his performance in their first game was very close to his season average: 221 passing yards at 7.9 per attempt, 39 rushing yards, and a touchdown on the ground. Not throwing any TDs brought him down a little, but that’s still around 19 fantasy points on a mediocre day.
The matchup isn’t great, and the Eagles will surely want to rely on the run, but Hurts does enough to be a strong fantasy option.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
Mahomes and the Chiefs came out as losers when they played in Buffalo in Week 11 (as mentioned above), but this time they get to play at home, a boon to their chances of winning. Playing at home also might benefit the QB and his performance: Mahomes had better numbers essentially across the board at home this season.
Mahomes did have one of his worst statistical seasons in 2024, putting up his worst total yards and yards per attempt numbers. Last year was the only time he had a worse TD-to-INT ratio (26-to-11 this year, which isn’t awful but is below his previous standard).
The Bills were right in the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed, but they did give up the eighth-least fantasy points to quarterbacks. When they played earlier, Mahomes had 196 yards on just 5.9 yards per attempt. His three touchdowns were offset by two interceptions; he also didn’t run the ball at all.
While Mahomes is a great real-life quarterback, he isn’t an elite fantasy QB anymore. With so many guys running regularly (including all three of the other quarterbacks this week), Mahomes lags behind with only his scrambles (which are much more valuable in real football than fantasy).
The Kansas City quarterback is clearly the fourth fantasy option in the championship round.
Conference Championship Round QB Rankings
- Josh Allen, BUF
- Jayden Daniels, WSH
- Jalen Hurts, PHI
- Patrick Mahomes, KC
