Fantasy Football Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers Who will Regress in 2025 | Baker Mayfield, Terry McLaurin, Davante Adams, Jared Goff and Jordan Addison

After putting together the first 10 fantasy football picks for the 2025 season on Wednesday, I'm back today with another fantasy-related story.

Here, I'm going to identify fantasy players who performed well in 2024, but who I think are destined to regress in 2025. I'll be using ESPN's scoring leaders page, and PPR settings when discussing things today. 

I'll cover quarterbacks and wide receivers in this story, then tackle running backs and tight ends in another. Let's jump right in!

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Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff are my top picks at the quarterback position.

Let's start with Mayfield, who seems like the most likely QB to take a step back as a fantasy performer.

It really has nothing to do with Mayfield as a passer. After throwing for 4,500 yards, 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in 2024, I think Mayfield could put up similar numbers in 2025.

Losing Chris Godwin, potentially, could hurt him a bit as a passer, but with Mike Evans, Cade Otton and Jalen McMillan around, Mayfield has the talent around him to replicate his 2024 numbers. The departure of former offensive coordinator Liam Coen could also be another reason Mayfield regresses a bit this season.

The biggest reason why I expect Mayfield to regress is because of his rushing stats this season. He's never really been known as a running QB, but went for 378 yards and three touchdowns this season. He hasn't even topped 200 rushing yards in another season, and had just seven career rushing scores over the first six years of his career.

I think Mayfield ran a bit more this season, but will revert closer to his career averages starting in 2025. The team's new offensive coordinator, Josh Grizzard, was the team's passing game coordinator previously, so I think Mayfield and the Bucs' offense will pass more next season, while relying on Bucky Irving and Rachaad White to run the ball.

The decrease in rushing statistics will hurt Mayfield as a fantasy player, but I still think he's got a great chance to be a top-10 finisher at the position with his volume passing numbers. The best part is, Mayfield isn't likely going to be drafted as an elite fantasy QB, so you should be able to get him for a good value later in drafts.

Goff was the No. 6 fantasy QB in points leagues in 2024. He's put up monster numbers in the Lions' offense over the past couple seasons, but now will be under the direction of a new offensive coordinator after Ben Johnson left to be the head coach of the Bears.

John Morton is the Lions' new OC, and was with the team as a senior offensive assistant in 2022. He was the Broncos' passing game coordinator the past two years, and now returns to Detroit.

There's some familiarity there, but Johnson was one of the brightest young offensive coaches in the game, so moving on from him is likely going to hurt the Lions' offense a bit, and Goff's numbers may drop as a result.

Detroit is still stacked offensively, with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in the backfield and Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams as the top pass catchers.

Goff isn't much of a runner, so he barely adds any fantasy points that way. He threw for over 4,600 yards and 37 touchdowns this season, but I could see those dropping a bit without Johnson leading the offense now.

Goff set a new career high with his 37 touchdown passes. He had 30 TDs in 2023 and 29 in 2022, and I think he's closer to those marks than the mark he posted this season.

Just a few less touchdown passes could drop Goff from QB6 to around QB10, and if he also drops in passing yards a bit, which I could also see happening, Goff might not even finish inside the top 10 next season.

Wide Receivers

There are a lot more wide receivers I could choose to regress next season. I want to discuss Terry McLaurin, Jordan Addison and Davante Adams.

McLaurin had a fantastic season, and helped the Commanders perform a lot better than most people thought they might. He had 1,096 yards and 13 touchdowns on 82 receptions.

The 13 touchdowns really stick out to me, as McLaurin had never had more than 13 TDs in a single season in the first five years of his career. Drafting Jayden Daniels might have rejuvenated McLaurin's career, but that's a hard number to replicate, and that's a big reason why I think McLaurin's fantasy value could drop next season.

Washington also has a bunch of pass catchers who will be free agents this offseason. None of them are great long-term options, and with a ton of cap space, I could see the Commanders not only adding a free agent or two, but maybe drafting a couple more pass catchers.

McLaurin could still be the go-to target for Daniels, but with more help around him, McLaurin's numbers would probably fall a decent amount. This is more speculative than anything, but I'd be really surprised if the team's pass catchers include most of the guys who were there this season.

Addison was a borderline top-20 fantasy receiver, which is not an easy feat when Justin Jefferson is the No. 1 receiver on the same team. Minnesota was better than we expected this season, and Sam Darnold looked like a competent QB, at least for most of the season.

Coach Kevin O'Connell can turn any QB into at least an average one it seems, so you might be wondering why I think Addison sees his production fall off. Like in the case with McLaurin, it's touchdown based.

Addison scored 10 total touchdowns this season. He also did that in his rookie season, but that was with Jefferson missing several games.

Maybe Addison just has a knack for finding the end zone, but I'm just not sold on it yet. For being a team's No. 2 wideout, Addison is still going to deliver some good fantasy outings, but just a score or two less could drop him behind several other receivers.

I'm guessing Addison regresses a bit in the touchdown department in 2025, and it could end up making Addison a bit of a draft bust, depending on where he settles in on ADP lists.

Finally, I see Adams regressing. He was a borderline top-10 fantasy receiver, but he continued to see his numbers drop.

Of course, starting the year with the Raiders didn't help Adams, and only playing in 14 games kept him from producing more. He's 32 years old and will turn 33 next season, so he's more likely to keep regressing than bounce back to his prime form.

His fantasy outlook will be guided by where he ends up playing, and which quarterback is throwing to him. I find it unlikely that Adams plays for a rebuilding team, and if he's on a contender, that means he's likely to have more competition for targets and production.

Another 1,000-yard season could still happen, but less catches and maybe touchdowns could also be coming. You also have to worry about him staying on the field as he ages.

He was one of the better fantasy wideouts this season, but probably should be a third-round fantasy pick, at most, next season. His landing spot will determine if he goes any earlier or later than that, but regardless, I'm going to be very wary of him repeating the success he had in 2024.