The Raiders Shoot the Moon: How Brandon Aiyuk, Myles Garrett, Sam Darnold and More Could Make Las Vegas Relevant

The Las Vegas Raiders have been one of the most moribund franchises of the past 20 years. They made the Super Bowl after the 2002 season, a year in which quarterback Rich Gannon won the MVP, and it's been downhill ever since.

The few bright spots have ended in pain. Derek Carr was playing at an MVP level in 2016, and the Raiders, then in Oakland, were on the way to a division title and possibly the top overall seed. Then, on Christmas Eve, Carr was caught in a mass of bodies while being sacked and suffered a broken leg.

I'm a long-suffering Raiders fan and was getting my first ray of sunshine in over a decade, and just like that, the curtain was yanked back over the window, fading us back to black. I just sat there in silence watching it all unfold. I couldn't be mad or sad; I just felt nothing and said nothing.

The game was taking place in Oakland, and I remember the announcer saying that he had never heard it so quiet in the Raiders stadium. Apparently, everyone there had the exact same reaction I did. That's the closest Raider Nation has come to experiencing real joy again, a 2021 Wild Card Round loss notwithstanding.

I'm a proponent of teams building slowly and making all the right little upgrades rather than making big moves that drain future draft value. Don't overdraft or overpay for the wrong players, and don't lock yourself into something that will set back the franchise: think of the Daniel Jones contract a few years back.

I would be excited about Las Vegas making a few big moves to try to get back into contention quickly, though. It has worked out poorly before. From Randy Moss to Davante Adams, big names have joined the Raider franchise over the past two decades, and none has been able to make a meaningful enough difference to change fortunes.

Talking to a friend recently, I started talking about Vegas going big and making a major splash this offseason. He needled me a little further, asking what they should consider, and I decided to go big.

There are rumors about Brandon Aiyuk possibly being on the move, something we had just talked about, so it was a natural starting point: “How about Aiyuk…and Myles Garrett.”

My friend could only laugh, but then we started digging into the details. It is feasible; Las Vegas has the second-most cap space entering the offseason, so they can take on any contract and make it work. It might not be as easy for the teams trading the stars, but NFL teams usually make things work when they want to, so let's assume everything we talk about below is doable.

After putting more thought into the overarching theme, I came up with my perfect Las Vegas Raiders 2025 offseason “Shoot for the Moon” strategy. This is about turning into playoff contenders fast. They might not be a Super Bowl team, but we're putting together a group that can at least make a run at the wild card in 2025.

Again, I'm not going to get into the finances too much because Vegas has the room to make it happen. We'll trust the team cap experts for that part. This is more about the moves (or types of moves) that could give the team juice toward a potential playoff run.

Brandon Aiyuk Trade

Raiders get: Aiyuk

49ers get: 2025 second rounder (#37), conditional 2026 third rounder (can become a second rounder), TE Michael Mayer

With both of these big deals, mid- and late-round picks could be thrown in to balance things, but we'll focus on the meat of the matter. The 37th pick could be a good spot to take another receiver to replenish the depth chart for San Fran, and the conditional 2026 pick would move into the second round if the Raiders made the AFC Championship Game and Aiyuk played at least 60% of the snaps in 2025.

Mayer was taken early in the second round in 2023 with plans he would be the future TE for Vegas. Then Brock Bowers came along. The 2024 first-round pick broke records as a rookie, making Mayer redundant given his perceived ceiling. There are rumors that the Raiders are gauging Mayer's value around the league, so this would be a way to use him to add a true top receiver.

Tight end doesn't seem like a need for the 49ers with George Kittle on the roster, but the veteran will turn 32 early in the season, and age comes fast when it hits. His current contract voids after this season. The most likely outcome is that they agree to a restructured contract this offseason that adds another year or two and lowers his 2025 cap number ($22 million), but acquiring Mayer might change the calculus a little.

The team could keep both players for the next two seasons, when Mayer is on a rookie contract, then re-sign the younger player while letting Kittle play out his deal or maybe even looking to move him this offseason or next.

Myles Garrett Trade

Raiders get: Garrett

Browns get: 2025 first rounder (#6), 2026 first rounder, 2027 conditional third rounder (can become a first rounder)

On top of this year's juicy first and next year's that might be just as good, Cleveland would get the chance at a third pick in the top round: the 2027 pick would become a second-round pick if the Raiders made the AFC Championship Game in either 2025 or 2026 and Garrett played at least 60% of the snaps that season, and it would become a first if they made the Super Bowl in either season and Garrett hit the same snap threshold.

Again, more mid- or late-round picks could be involved one way or the other to balance things out, but these would be the main assets on the move. The appeal for Las Vegas is clear: Maxx Crosby and Garrett would make up the best pass-rushing duo in the league, and they'd gladly pay the price of three first rounders if it meant getting to a Super Bowl.

Cleveland doesn't want to trade Garrett, as their GM Andrew Berry has made clear, but this would be a pretty good consolation prize to the former Defensive Player of the Year. Getting the sixth pick would be a chance to maybe add both a quarterback and one of the best players in the draft with their own No. 2 pick. Walking away with Travis Hunter and Cam Ward would have to be seen as a successful draft.

The future picks could end up anywhere. If Vegas bottomed out again in 2025, a realistic outcome, Cleveland would get a second top-10 pick. Even if that conditional 2027 pick didn't move up, they'd be looking at an early-to-mid third-round pick, a place to find a potential starter.

Quarterback

Sign Sam Darnold for four years and $120 million

I liked Matthew Stafford as a trade target here before he signed a new contract with the Rams, and he would be tough to secure with the picks sent out for the other two stars. Let's pivot to free agency instead and grab the breakout veteran QB of 2024. It was Darnold's first season with above-average play, but it shows that he has a higher ceiling than we had seen before, and he would have a good group of skill players to support him.

The first two years would be guaranteed, much like Jones' contract with the Giants, so the Raiders would only be committed for a couple of seasons. It would be helpful to bring in a steady backup hand, like Tyrod Taylor or Jacoby Brissett, while releasing Gardner Minshew to free up cap space.

Aidan O'Connell could be kept as a cheap third option, or the team could try to trade him for late-round compensation or a pick swap if they feel a fresh start is better. The ceiling and floor in Vegas would suddenly take a huge step forward.

Build Up the Defense

The Raiders defense is wanting for talent. Crosby and Garrett paired with last year's big free agent signing, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, and 2023 first-round pick Tyree Wilson has the potential to hit in a big way. Other defensive line additions would be for depth and rotational ability.

The linebacking group is barren. Robert Spillane and Divine Deablo, who played by far the most snaps among Raiders LBs in 2024, are both free agents. It's not imperative to re-sign them, as they are good,not great, but getting someone at least comparable is important. Off-ball linebacker is seen as an easily fillable position, so the team could look to make multiple low-cost signings and/or a mid-round pick to find starters.

Philadelphia's Zack Baun, who took a huge jump to All-Pro status after being mostly anonymous for four years with the Saints, would take a sizeable investment. Vegas could probably afford it, but they might prefer to use their money on more premium positions.

Cornerback Nate Hobbs and safety Tre'von Moehrig are two impact free agents in the secondary who would probably be worth bringing back, especially Moehrig. There needs to be more talent brought in, though, wherever value can be found.

With the proposed trades, the Raiders would be left with their own third-round pick (#68), the Jets third rounder (#73, from the Adams trade last season), one pick in each of the fourth, fifth, and seventh rounds, and three picks in the sixth round (pending compensatory picks and anything else that would be involved in the trades above).

Add Depth to the Offense

That draft capital is decent even while missing their first- and second-round picks; those premium picks can be seen as Aiyuk and Garrett. The team could focus on value in the draft and free agency, adding multiple pieces that might hit.

A lot will depend on what new head coach Pete Carroll, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, and defensive coordinator Patrick Graham want in their players. Type will dictate who they look for later in the draft and in depth signings in free agency.

Offensive line depth is always needed, something that is available through multiple avenues. The Raiders had an average O-line last season, a group that should be expected to improve as younger players get more experience. An potential upgrade would be nice, also (Mekhi Becton to play either right tackle or guard?).

Running back is a position of need. Vegas averaged the fewest yards per rush attempt in 2024; what more is there to say? An improved offensive line would help, but they need more upside in the backfield. A low-risk, one-year contract with a guy like J.K. Dobbins, who has shown above-average play while dealing with injuries every year, would be a good start, and this running back draft class is seen as a good, deep group, so they could find another guy in the middle rounds.

Conclusion

These moves wouldn't form a guaranteed contender, but they would raise the competitive level of the Raiders exponentially. Darnold is a risky player to count on, and giving up this many premium picks has the chance to backfire and drain the club of young talent in the coming seasons.

This is about 2025, though, and these moves would increase the team's playoff and championship odds. Don't count on this many big moves (or all these guys even wanting to play in Las Vegas), but it's a fun thought experiment. We can rise again, Raider Nation!