Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer: Is it Time to Trade Away/Trade For Matt Olson?

We are a quarter of the way through the MLB regular season now, and fantasy owners are itching to start making trades (if they haven’t already).

After looking at the FantasySP Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer, I noticed Atlanta Braves’ Matt Olson in three separate popular trades, so let’s discuss the first baseman as a fantasy trade option.

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Olson’s Season Stats

Through 39 games played this season, Olson has a .218 average and .329 on-base percentage. He’s collected 15 extra-base hits (including five home runs) among his 31 total hits, drove in 22 runs and scored 17 times. Olson has 20 walks and 42 strikeouts this year.

Of course, Olson is coming off a monster 2023 campaign in which he clubbed 54 home runs. He hit a career-high .283 and got on base at a career-best .389 clip. Olson is a career .254 hitter, with a .350 OBP. While some regression was expected, fantasy owners were certainly not expecting this big of a dropoff.

In positive news for the fantasy owners that roster Olson, the slugger is heating up at the plate a bit. He’s had hits in seven of the last eight games, with nine total knocks in that span. Olson has two homers, six RBIs, nine total hits, three runs scored, two walks and seven strikeouts over that span.

He’s going to have to get extremely hot to even come close to last year’s numbers, but after the slow start to the season, fantasy owners are hoping to sell him (likely for more than he’s worth).

Olson’s Fantasy Value

I was extremely high on Olson coming into the season, and most fantasy owners agreed. He was the ninth overall player taken on average in drafts, going around pick 11 according to FantasySP Average Draft Position data.

Olson’s season so far has been extremely underwhelming. He’s definitely not a top-10 fantasy player, and he’s not even close to a top-10 fantasy first baseman right now. 

The slow start definitely means his fantasy value has taken a hit since the start of the season, but how far has it fallen?

At the beginning of April, Olson had a trade value of over 26. At the time of this publication, Olson is sitting with a rating of just over 21. That still has him 21st on our overall chart, but his power potential and early draft pick status is really the only thing saving him right now. As you can see in the seven-day trend, his value is down nearly a point, and that has been the trend over the past several weeks (and will continue, even if he heats up a bit at the plate).

The thing working in your favor in an Olson fantasy trade is his big name, and the incredible numbers he put up last season. You aren’t going to get nearly the return you would have at the start of the season, but you still should be able to net something positive for your fantasy team.

Popular Trades Involving Olson

Olson is part of popular trades with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodriguez and Pete Alonso.

In the trade proposal with Guerrero, our trade value chart still likes Olson, but by less than a point. Rodriguez is favored by two-plus points against Olson. In the Olson and Alonso popular trade, our charts like Alonso by a little more than a point.

Guerrero has been the best hitter of these four players, with a .276 average and .376 OBP. He’s not leading the way in many other statistics though.

Alonso is the leader in home runs (9) and RBIs (22). Rodriguez leads the way in hits (44) and stolen bases (9), but also has played more games than the others. And even despite the down season, Olson is the co-leader in RBIs with Alonso.

All of these guys were top-35 picks, which is a pretty solid return for a poor-performing hitter (Olson). 

I personally like Rodriguez the best of the group, mostly because he has a solid average (.260) and can also add stolen bases for your fantasy team - even though his power numbers are way down. I’d follow the trade analyzer and deal Olson for Rodriguez, as long as it doesn’t cripple you at the 1B position.

Alonso and Guerrero are both first basemen, so getting either of them for Olson means you aren’t totally changing a position. I’d be fine with making a deal for Guerrero or Alonso in exchange for Olson, but I’d still prefer to stick with Olson just because I spent an early pick on him. 

I expect Olson to get going (I think he already has started), and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he outproduces Guerrero and Alonso for the remainder of the season. All their power numbers should be fairly similar by the end of the season, so like the trade analyzer, I don’t see a huge difference between these three.

Make the best decision for your fantasy team based on which player you believe in the most, but honestly, I don’t think you can go wrong.

Happy trading!