MLB Teams to Target with Pitchers in Fantasy Baseball: White Sox, Cubs, Athletics and More Stand Out
Identifying teams that show up often at the bottom of the stat boards on offense, providing a feeding ground for starting pitchers.
Choosing the players for your fantasy team seems easy at times. Any of us could be an actual manager, coach, or GM because we go through the painstaking task of researching players and making the best decisions for our fantasy teams, right? No matter how many mistakes those coaches and front office guys make, though, it’s way too oversimplified to actually compare a fantasy team to managing the egos, feelings and livelihoods of real humans.
One difference is that we can focus on the same teams day after day, week after week rather than having to play whoever the schedule brings. That’s one of the best things a fantasy owner can do is identify and target opponents who give players the best chance to succeed.
I try to do this each day with starting pitchers: Find the worst offenses in baseball and the hurlers facing them, focusing on those who aren’t owned in many fantasy leagues. We talk about streamers a lot in fantasy football, and it’s easier to manage in that format when you only set your team once per week.
If you are in a fantasy baseball league in which you set your lineup daily, it can be a drudge to keep focus for six months. My goal is to make your life easier by doing research and identifying streamers so that you can focus on things like your family and job (as if those things matter more!).
The stats and rankings referenced below are from MLB.
Process
I used nine offensive stats to identify the worst offenses: runs scored, hits, doubles, home runs, batter strikeouts, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS. I then tallied the number of times each team showed up in the bottom 10 of those statistics to see which teams struggled in the most categories.
It’s not perfect by any means; there’s not much for advanced stats (though OPS is sometimes used as quasi-advanced number), and the rankings of these stats can change daily. It is also easy to see which teams struggle most by these measures, and that’s what I’m looking for: who regularly stands out among the weakest lineups?
Results
About 10 teams usually stand out each time I do this. There were 11 squads who were bottom-10 in at least five of the nine included stats:
- Chicago Cubs
- Chicago White Sox
- Cincinnati Reds
- Detroit Tigers
- Miami Marlins
- Oakland Athletics
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Seattle Mariners
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Washington Nationals
A few of those names are pretty obvious; the White Sox are five games worse than any other team, for example. Even a division leader like Seattle, though, can harbor a weak offense while the pitching staff carries the load.
Strikeouts are a major factor that I put more stock in than about anything else. Even if a pitcher struggles and gives up four runs in five innings, he can save the day a bit if he also racks up eight strikeouts. It doesn’t fix everything, but we’re talking about streamers here, not the guys you count on every fifth day.
Seattle, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Tampa, Cincinnati, Detroit and the two Chicago teams are all in the top 11 in batter Ks. On top of having weaker offenses in other areas, they are high-ceiling opponents who sometimes allow pitchers to put up numbers, especially the guys who excel in that area.
The White Sox, Tigers, Pirates, Mariners, Nationals, Athletics and Marlins are the best matchups as far as struggling in many areas. They are the teams I am comfortable targeting with essentially any pitcher. The Cubs and Reds have higher offensive ceilings, and it’s worth investigating whether any potential streamer is worthy of putting in your lineup against those squads before blindly throwing them in.
Streamer Expectations
Another part of the equation is what you can reasonably expect from any pitcher you’re picking up off the free agent heap. You’ll get the occasional ace-like outing, but a more realistic ceiling is six or seven innings with two runs allowed and around five or six strikeouts. Many times, the results are worse. That’s the nature of the beast.
There’s a reasonable strategy of focusing on hitters early in your fantasy draft and relying on free agent finds and streamers to make up your pitching staff. Pitchers are often more volatile than hitters, and arm injuries seem as common as Seinfeld reruns on TV.
If you do have an ace or two, streamers can be shuffled in and out of your last few roster spots in an attempt to capitalize on weak offenses. I’d much rather face bad teams often than have better pitchers against stronger lineups.
Conclusion
No strategy is guaranteed to work every time, and even the best matchups sometimes turn sour. Things often don’t follow the “on paper” story; that’s why they play the games, as the proverb goes. Making the decisions that give you the most value and best chance to win sets you up for success more often than not.
Check back most days to find the best available streamers. Even if things don’t work in your favor, you can feel good about putting in work on your team. That’s something, right?
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